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Post by garrett on Jul 6, 2014 13:11:40 GMT -5
For what it is worth, Eli Lilly has the 2nd best selling rapid-acting insulin drug, Humalog, with $2.6B annual sales. However, Humalog lost patent protection in 2013. It will not be too surprising Lilly is looking for a new rapid-acting insulin drug to replace its losing revenue at Humalog. I heard Matt say in one of his last public appearances that they prefer not to partner with a direct competitor. Therefore, I don't see Eli Lilly with Humalog being on their short list
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Post by biotec on Jul 6, 2014 13:16:26 GMT -5
For what it is worth, Eli Lilly has the 2nd best selling rapid-acting insulin drug, Humalog, with $2.6B annual sales. However, Humalog lost patent protection in 2013. It will not be too surprising Lilly is looking for a new rapid-acting insulin drug to replace its losing revenue at Humalog. I heard Matt say in one of his last public appearances that they prefer not to partner with a direct competitor. Therefore, I don't see Eli Lilly with Humalog being on their short list Management may not be able to be so picky.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jul 6, 2014 17:50:36 GMT -5
Simple RUMOR that Google may be interested in a buyout of Mannkind. They have deep pockets ! Any thoughts on Google buying out Mnkd?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 6, 2014 18:01:25 GMT -5
They make a new contact lens that can tell all sorts of things from sampling of tears. If it can tell sugar levels somehow then convey to a smart watch guess that would then lead to Afrezza. Not very likely but all things aside... Healthcare/MedApps info are the new big thing for tech companies so guess possible... And they have the cash... Probably just 5 to 10 years too soon...
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jul 7, 2014 23:09:33 GMT -5
I'm not sure where I read it but as someone else posted , what I did read referred to a previous partnership the company made & it did not bode well , if anyone else saw this also I'd love to reread , I recall it stating why Eli Lilly would be a horrible choice for Mannkind & it seemed to give valid reasons why , if it was actually factual , I tried to locate it but I read it sometime last week & don't even recall where I saw it .. & the other mention I think someone was referring to was a supposed cardiologist on Yahoo who claimed his GSK Pharma rep stopped in to tell him she was leaving to go work in the Diabetes sector & when prompted all she said was the company couldn't tell her the drug she'd be representing bc it had yet to be FDA approved . He seemed decent on yahoo but I always wonder why are they there & not here instead ... Its my work weekend so my holiday fun is over ./ I read the same thing on Yahoo. Maybe it's a legit post, but I am personally skeptical. No offense, but I've heard this song before. Personally, I hope the partner is google. They overpay for everything.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jul 7, 2014 23:12:14 GMT -5
This is kind of like waiting for Christmas but we don't know what day Christmas actually is..... Ho ho ho!
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Post by cusop on Jul 8, 2014 5:30:17 GMT -5
The conclusion I can draw from this is that the diabetes incumbents are not going to sit around and let Mannkind roll them over, by increasing the sales force, they are preparing for war! I ave often felt the strong shorting of the stock has been encouraged by the existing pharmaceutical base in order to destabilize a game changer.
They can't sue but they can outspend. The MNKD stock will be in for a bumpy ride over the next few weeks as the market begins to become impatient with no news.
Im long and am not expecting miracles over night
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Post by mnkdlong on Jul 8, 2014 8:29:02 GMT -5
I am a long time reader of this board, first time posting. I work in the diabetes marketplace for a pharmaceutical company and wanted to put done context to some of the rumors:
1. Eli Lilly is hiring up for the launch of their SGLT-2 and weekly GLP-1, both of which will likely be approved this year.
2. Humalogs patent is expiring soon, but to date, no generic company has EVER produced an insulin. The problem is that the FDA requires clinical studies when approving insulin- even when it's generic. This cost, added to the high manufacturing cost has deterred the generic industry from entering the marketplace. With the growing insulin market, some generic companies are considering entering, but nothing is formal and it would be years off.
3. After Exubera was pulled, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cancelled their inhaled programs (both of which had devices and data better than Exubera). It's hard to imagine either companies deciding to enter back into the inhaled insulin market, especially as they will be competing primarily with themselves (Humalog ~45% SOM, Novolog ~55% SOM).
4. Google is not going to enter this space. There has been a lot of talk on these boards about mnkd not needing a sales force and using more modern methods of marketing. This will not work. The BP industry spends billions marketing drugs. Why- because it works. The marketplace has changed in the past decade, but marketing and a Salesforce still deliver results. Plenty of great treatments don't gain market share because of the Salesforce and marketing of competitors. It simply isn't true to say "a good product will sell itself" in this industry.
5. Pfizer will never be a bidder. Exubera was to big of a failure and investors/management will not stomach the risk. Plus, they have no current presence in the diabetes space.
6. Afrezza has a chance to be successful- I think it will be, but the journey ahead will not be easy. We all know Afrezza cannot be compared to Exubera, but physicians minds are going to go to Exubera right away. Sales and marketing will have an uphill battle changing this perception.
7. I increasingly think the partnership will not be with one of the big guys, but rather (and sadly) with a smaller pharma company that has a Salesforce.
8. If I am wrong and there is a big pharma play, my bets (for specific reasons I am willing to share if anyone is interested) are: a. Merck. b. J&J. c. AZ
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Post by mnkdlong on Jul 8, 2014 8:30:38 GMT -5
Also, some ppl have mentioned Glaxo because they are hiring. They are hiring for their recently approved weekly GLP-1.
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Post by mnkd2014 on Jul 8, 2014 8:51:20 GMT -5
MNKDLong,
Welcome to the board and thank you for sharing your thoughts!
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Post by bradleysbest on Jul 8, 2014 9:04:51 GMT -5
Very good points & welcome to the board. All we need is 1 BP (kind of like the NFL draft) to fall in love with Afrezza & we will be off & running! Yes it will be bumpy but it will be worth the wait!
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Post by rockyp on Jul 8, 2014 9:47:35 GMT -5
The conclusion I can draw from this is that the diabetes incumbents are not going to sit around and let Mannkind roll them over, by increasing the sales force, they are preparing for war! The first corollary of that is Big Pharma sees the potential of Afrezza and knows that they are going to have a fight on their hands if they want to hold market share.
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Post by mnkdlong on Jul 8, 2014 10:13:07 GMT -5
Except the war they are preparing for is for a fourth and fifth to market GLP-1 and a third and fourth to market SGLT-2: both of which are growing and highly competitive in the diabetes marketplace.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jul 8, 2014 11:23:26 GMT -5
I was actually kidding about Google. Same applies to FB, Amazon, etc., although they typically overpay as well.
On a serious note, about a month ago, a stranger in the mall started talking to me about a series of odd jobs he had throughout his life, mostly petaing to outlandish types of theft, corproate investigations and contrsution in foreighn countries. I thought he was a little off, but e chair next to his was the only free chair. One of the things he brought up was GSK. Basically, he went on to say that they would pay people to spy and spread false information- that in itself was not far fetched. But, this was a few weeks prior to approval. None of the previous "jobs" he discussed had anything to do with Pharma.
I was very glad when it was time to leave. However, if I need a tank (an actual tank) he may be able to help me. Hmm.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 8, 2014 12:43:10 GMT -5
Mnkdlong, you make several interesting points, but I'm going to have to disagree with point no. 6:
"6. Afrezza has a chance to be successful- I think it will be, but the journey ahead will not be easy. We all know Afrezza cannot be compared to Exubera, but physicians minds are going to go to Exubera right away. Sales and marketing will have an uphill battle changing this perception."
A "chance" to be successful - not phrased like someone long at this point in time (close to $4 billion market cap). A "great chance" maybe, but a chance? Not to say your words aren't technically correct, but again, guys with "long" in their handles don't usually write like that! And at $4 billion in market cap, no, get me out of this stock if all we have is a regular old, run of the mill "chance." Listen to the public presentations at the AdCom, as surely you have, then, perhaps listen again. Doctors will prescribe this treatment, cuz their patients will say "prescribe it or give me a really good reason why not." The docs are going to lose face if they compare it to Exubera for long, especially if the ADA remains a fan of "Afrezza."
If nothing better comes along and if some new, profound and material side effect is not discovered, the "uphill battle" will be over relatively quickly. "Afrezza" will become the new standard of treatment for millions, until something better comes along or it is genuinely discredited. Not saying either can't happen, but a "chance."
As to your other points, I have to defer to you and those fellow posters that know stuff about pharmas.
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