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Post by shortslaver on Jan 22, 2015 19:08:57 GMT -5
My broker has enabled the selling of puts. I think I'm going to take advantage of that and sell some MNKD puts.
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Post by trenddiver on Jan 23, 2015 14:13:42 GMT -5
Longs and shorts battling it out again at 50 day moving average which is at around 5.75. Resistance has been pretty formidable. Hopefully we'll see some shorts capitulate soon which should cause a breakout to higher levels.
Trend
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 26, 2015 11:12:00 GMT -5
Just pulled this a few minutes ago: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 30'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ So if their site is up to date we're getting a rise in s/p with not much covering which would suggest new buyers. From a technical perspective the daily indicators are showing some nice positive signs ie., positive MACD cross above the zero line and currently "above the cloud" on the daily chart as well. This move higher is on higher RSI than previous run at 6 which also shows more conviction. Daily stochastics have been rising as well. Now for the reality check from a longer term perspective...weekly we've put in a higher high than last two weeks but didn't cross the short term high from three weeks ago right a 6 on 1/5. Upper bollinger sits at 6.02 and we have crossed the 100d MA today while continuing to trade above the 50d MA. So in summary, overall the daily picture remains constructively positive but the weekly picture has yet to turn so I wouldn't sell the entire farm just yet to buy in...one other note, the XBI is trading at a 52 week high as well today but it is on lighter volume and weaker strength than the previous high so momentum could be waning in the sector which has been a mainstay for quite awhile in the overall bull run the market has had...something to keep an eye on IMO. On a bright note, I rec'd a call from CVS yesterday to let me know my "Januvia" script has been ready....I told her not to worry that I wouldn't be picking it up, however, I asked her if she had Afrezza in stock...stated no but said she could order it with a script from my doc...we chatted a bit about it and she told me it was exciting...when I asked her why she told me she is T1 and wears a pump...and anything new in the way of promising meds for Diabetics is exciting. Will be scheduling visit with my primary this week to get my Afrezza prescription. Nice morning to wake up to today
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Post by trenddiver on Jan 26, 2015 12:51:49 GMT -5
Joey,
i think the weekly chart is bullish. The MACD just crossed the trigger line and the RSI is rising (almost at the 50 line).
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 26, 2015 13:16:56 GMT -5
Trend, I tend to wait for more confirmations before declaring a longer term trend...having said that, the high today did breach the high from 1/5 and we're knocking on the upper bb. Would like to see this sustain itself on increasing volume...still don't think the "dark side" is going to go quietly, think they are going to let the enthusiasm play itself out over the next week or so and then we'll see how it goes. I've learned to try and keep the emotions in check until there is more clarity (for me anyway), so in essence I would line my perspective as follows for now: short term-bullish (short term =1-10 days, intermediate term-neutral 2-8 weeks, long term-bullish 3 mos +)...still in camp that we can see one more drop before breaking to new highs so my line of thinking is that some of the new buying is not longer term rather than short term traders again taking advantage of the daily break out...that is why I always say lets see how the rest of the week plays out and finishes
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Post by trenddiver on Jan 26, 2015 16:33:27 GMT -5
Joey, That's what makes chart interpretation and investing in general so interesting. Depending on your background, your experience, knowledge, biases and fears, investors have many different opinions. My interpretation of the charts both daily and weekly, based on the indicators I look at are, make me very bullish at this time. This coincides with the reality on the ground and the current news cycle which will be very positive for MNKD as the launch begins and the Partnershio rolls out its advertising and public relations campaign. Also there will be a lot of hype about Mannkind's next products, which will be very bullish for the stock.
As for the weekly chart, I interpret it as bullish. 1. The chart shows the stock in a long term uptrend. 2. The stock bounced off of its 200 week moving average 3 times showing excellent support. 3. The MACD just crossed the trigger line from a deeply oversold position. 4. The RSI has been progressingly steadily upward and is close to crossing the 50 line.
It's looks to me like we are heading to the 50 week moving average at about $6.84, which has shown great support in the past, and now should be resistance. Depending on how the news ground shapes up, we may be able to blow right thru the 50 week moving average and test the old highs at 11. I'm a bean counter and as such am normally very conservative, but right now I am feeling very bullish and have been buying May calls, adding to my long term position in shares and warrants.
Trend
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Post by ezrasfund on Jan 26, 2015 16:57:18 GMT -5
I have learned a lot about options with MNKD. More than I want to know. With increased leverage timing becomes more and more important. This time around, by which I mean when the price spikes like it did to $8 in August '13 and then to $10 in June '14, my plan is to start selling covered calls. If you technicians have any idea when that might be, please let me know. My best idea for an indicator is still when Matt's sell orders are triggered.
Maybe we will finally reach escape velocity, as in "to the moon, Alice!" But I have also learned to like the dull ache of realizing I have left money on the table more than the sharp pain of losing that and more.
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Post by trenddiver on Jan 26, 2015 17:36:58 GMT -5
Ezra,
I can't give you any timing when the stock will peak, I can only tell you when the indicators I look at turn bearish. Babo is the covered call master, and I would follow his lead. The powerful shorts have done a great job of tempering our enthusiasm, and many on this board are justifiably gun-show. but for me, it's "full steam" ahead. In my opinion, from a "risk/reward" standpoint, the last couple of weeks have been the most opportune time to buy shares since just before Adcom in late March - early April, 2014.
Trend
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Post by cybergym66 on Jan 26, 2015 18:44:03 GMT -5
Joey, That's what makes chart interpretation and investing in general so interesting. Depending on your background, your experience, knowledge, biases and fears, investors have many different opinions. My interpretation of the charts both daily and weekly, based on the indicators I look at are, make me very bullish at this time. This coincides with the reality on the ground and the current news cycle which will be very positive for MNKD as the launch begins and the Partnershio rolls out its advertising and public relations campaign. Also there will be a lot of hype about Mannkind's next products, which will be very bullish for the stock. As for the weekly chart, I interpret it as bullish. 1. The chart shows the stock in a long term uptrend. 2. The stock bounced off of its 200 week moving average 3 times showing excellent support. 3. The MACD just crossed the trigger line from a deeply oversold position. 4. The RSI has been progressingly steadily upward and is close to crossing the 50 line. It's looks to me like we are heading to the 50 week moving average at about $6.84, which has shown great support in the past, and now should be resistance. Depending on how the news ground shapes up, we may be able to blow right thru the 50 week moving average and test the old highs at 11. I'm a bean counter and as such am normally very conservative, but right now I am feeling very bullish and have been buying May calls, adding to my long term position in shares and warrants. Trend I'd like to throw in AMPH as an "indicator" since they are making the Insulin for MNKD...the three month chart looks quite nice (~$10 to $12.24 today). I don't think many retail investors know that AMPH is making the insulin so I like to think this is an indicator of institutional investors looking for secondary plays on Afrezza.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 31, 2015 8:35:36 GMT -5
A significant increase in volume and share price over the last 90 minutes of trading on Friday bodes well for Monday?
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Post by cybergym66 on Jan 31, 2015 9:12:56 GMT -5
A significant increase in volume and share price over the last 90 minutes of trading on Friday bodes well for Monday? It looks like about 600K shares exchanged in the last 10 min...'usual' is about 170K. So you might be on to something. Could be some smart guys wanting to be long in case of a pre-market announcement by SNY about Afrezza. The question I need answered is if there is an announcement does the price shoot up and hold or does the shorts play games like they did when we were up to $6.75-ish last week and knock the price down again? We had over 7M shares exchanged on Wednesday and we couldn't hold the high.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 31, 2015 14:07:15 GMT -5
Trend, I tend to wait for more confirmations before declaring a longer term trend...having said that, the high today did breach the high from 1/5 and we're knocking on the upper bb. Would like to see this sustain itself on increasing volume...still don't think the "dark side" is going to go quietly, think they are going to let the enthusiasm play itself out over the next week or so and then we'll see how it goes. I've learned to try and keep the emotions in check until there is more clarity (for me anyway), so in essence I would line my perspective as follows for now: short term-bullish (short term =1-10 days, intermediate term-neutral 2-8 weeks, long term-bullish 3 mos +)...still in camp that we can see one more drop before breaking to new highs so my line of thinking is that some of the new buying is not longer term rather than short term traders again taking advantage of the daily break out...that is why I always say lets see how the rest of the week plays out and finishes The week played out very nicely with the highest volume since the week ending 10/17 with just about a 10% increase in s/p. We came perilously close to the 50 week MA that trend mentioned which may act as resistance for the immediate future (the high for the week 6.68, 50 week MA = 6.84). What I liked most is that the increase in volume and price came with the week ending with available shares remaining tight... Symbol: MNKD Availability: 25'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ in other words, not much in the way of short covering rather some additional accumulation along with traders adding to the volume. For the upcoming week, I would expect the upward pressure to the 6.84 area to continue and we'll see how it behaves at that area, sustained volume would be nice to see. I sense that there is a building amount of buyers waiting for that "last drop effort" that a lot of us have been looking for...whether it is to add, start, or cover a position. With that in mind if it does come here's a thought... it may be rather fleeting and volatile similar to the days leading up to pre adcom so if one is in the camp of looking to pull the trigger on any decent drop they should most likely put in a limit buy order at where they are comfortable having a trigger fired...this is in line with what Rob Sacher has been preaching if you've been following what he's posted on that subject. Enjoy the rest of Super Bowl weekend everyone...I know Sam (aka Afrezzauser is)
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2015 14:21:42 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans, Care to speculate where a good limit order buy might be? I strengthened my long position Thur buying in money calls paired with selling equal strike puts.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 31, 2015 14:44:54 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans, Care to speculate where a good limit order buy might be? I strengthened my long position Thur buying in money calls paired with selling equal strike puts. If I can use the term "hopeful" in the right context at or below 4.75-4.80 would be outright thievery/stealing IMO which is exactly what they (shorts would love to do at this point). Having said that, with the sense I mentioned of unmet demand building underneath I am starting to feel like we might not get there unless some "black swan" event took place in the broader market to cause the possibility of forced sales again. So in answer to your question I will go back to a previous post and would step it in 3 orders from here, those limits being 5.70 (close to 50d ma), 5.01 pivot area of this recent upleg, anywhere from 4.50 (very strong support at the 200 week ma area) to 4.80 depending on your current position and where you hope to be.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2015 15:52:29 GMT -5
joeypotsandpansI guess you are more "hopeful" than I am... for a bargain basement sale on shares. Now that we've seen some, though not all, positive formulary placement, I'm wanting to ad to my position and I'll be plenty happy if I could grab some at that $5.70 point. My current average price is low 5's. If it dips to $5.70 I could most likely add to my synthetic long option trade at an effective pps less than my average.
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