|
Post by sportsrancho on Jan 17, 2019 14:23:10 GMT -5
I'm not sure how this relates to a buyout, but the tide appears to have turned December 27th. Granted this is a short window but if it continues and the short side continues to melt away, the pressure on BP to act may intensify given the level of M&A in this space. I would expect to see the shorts exit after the drop. Contrary to what some think they are not there to destroy the company, they are there to play the numbers. Once the deal was done the price dropped and that was their cue to exit because the price was unlikely to drop much further. I would have expected the majority of them to have gone long at that point because they expect the price to revert to the mean. As the price continues to rise they will gradually go short again in anticipation of the next drop. What market cap aged? 2b?
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jan 17, 2019 15:37:12 GMT -5
What market cap aged? 2b? I think that's reasonable. The market cap was comfortably over that at the mid point of the Sanofi deal. If we can exceed Sanofi's Apidra I think that gets us noticed. Certainly I would do a PR for that event
|
|
|
Post by itellthefuture777 on Jan 17, 2019 16:31:26 GMT -5
What market cap aged? 2b? I think that's reasonable. The market cap was comfortably over that at the mid point of the Sanofi deal. If we can exceed Sanofi's Apidra I think that gets us noticed. Certainly I would do a PR for that event Al said this was the largest opportunity in the history of Pharma..so..north of $160 bil..imo
|
|
|
Post by kc on Jan 17, 2019 16:48:18 GMT -5
the price of Mannkind in the beginning..before any drug was created or approved or shown superior was..$125 a share...now at $1.37... Al doesn't start something historically that doesn't have a 10x to 100x factor..so $1,250 a share low end...to $12,500 a share high end..I find it staggering we are at $1.37..but..as long as analyst have their heads up their butts..might as well keep picking these diamonds up .. You been hitting the Real bong and not the RLS inhaler......
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Jan 17, 2019 17:07:09 GMT -5
It depends heavily on the share price, but also on the balance sheet. The premium can be as high as 90% for oncology drugs, but 60% is more typical this year (this is all cyclic and we are on an upswing). Assuming the share price was around 1.80 when Nate said that, the buyout price would be $540. Halve that to get an very optimistic premium and you need a pre-offer share price of $270, more realistically $340. The price of Mannkind in the beginning..before any drug was created or approved or shown superior was..$125 a share...now at $1.37...Al doesn't start something historically that doesn't have a 10x to 100x factor..so $1,250 a share low end...to $12,500 a share high end..I find it staggering we are at $1.37..but..as long as analyst have their heads up their butts..might as well keep picking these diamonds up .. $300 billion to $3 trillion market cap. That is truly out of the box thinking... if we consider a box as a metaphor for sanity.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jan 17, 2019 17:20:25 GMT -5
You have to keep in mind that the purchase price has to look reasonable to the shareholders of the acquiring company or else the management of that company will not be long for this world. Most deals still get done at a 20-35% premium over a recent market price, and a handful get done at a 50% premium, but very few get done at higher prices. Today MNKD has a market cap of $258 so 150% of market is roughly $380 million. The purchaser also gets to pay off all the debt and other liabilities which adds another $250 million to the price tag.
In order to get more than that, MNKD has to show much stronger fundamentals that will move the market price north of where it is. Buyers will fork out a modest premium to get an asset that fits with their portfolio, but they want to see more than hopes and dreams. Also keep in mind that with TS all the key patents are expired at this point so if that ever does become the next big thing in drug delivery there will be generic imitators emerging rapidly. That puts something of a ceiling on the value of that part of the portfolio.
|
|
|
Post by itellthefuture777 on Jan 17, 2019 19:28:25 GMT -5
You have to keep in mind that the purchase price has to look reasonable to the shareholders of the acquiring company or else the management of that company will not be long for this world. Most deals still get done at a 20-35% premium over a recent market price, and a handful get done at a 50% premium, but very few get done at higher prices. Today MNKD has a market cap of $258 so 150% of market is roughly $380 million. The purchaser also gets to pay off all the debt and other liabilities which adds another $250 million to the price tag. In order to get more than that, MNKD has to show much stronger fundamentals that will move the market price north of where it is. Buyers will fork out a modest premium to get an asset that fits with their portfolio, but they want to see more than hopes and dreams. Also keep in mind that with TS all the key patents are expired at this point so if that ever does become the next big thing in drug delivery there will be generic imitators emerging rapidly. That puts something of a ceiling on the value of that part of the portfolio. Thing is..Mannkind..doesn't need to be acquired..has fianance and outlicense deals..rolling in..7 pipe items..this Oscar can grow..already has the most awesomest drug...whats big pharma without the most awesomest drug?..overpriced slow in and out..and pretty much irrelevant...flatlined..sitting on their lorals..over billing to make up for their lazyness..just sayn...cars..beat buggies..planes beet walking..and driving..and big pharma can lie to themselves..the future is coming..they can't stop it..
|
|
|
Post by mango on Jan 17, 2019 19:43:59 GMT -5
You have to keep in mind that the purchase price has to look reasonable to the shareholders of the acquiring company or else the management of that company will not be long for this world. Most deals still get done at a 20-35% premium over a recent market price, and a handful get done at a 50% premium, but very few get done at higher prices. Today MNKD has a market cap of $258 so 150% of market is roughly $380 million. The purchaser also gets to pay off all the debt and other liabilities which adds another $250 million to the price tag. In order to get more than that, MNKD has to show much stronger fundamentals that will move the market price north of where it is. Buyers will fork out a modest premium to get an asset that fits with their portfolio, but they want to see more than hopes and dreams. Also keep in mind that with TS all the key patents are expired at this point so if that ever does become the next big thing in drug delivery there will be generic imitators emerging rapidly. That puts something of a ceiling on the value of that part of the portfolio.Will you please provide us with some examples of these key Technosphere patents that are expired?
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Jan 17, 2019 20:35:32 GMT -5
It was my understanding that this subject was covered once before and has been publically stated by the company that most patents extend to 2030 - 31 or so.
|
|
|
Post by mango on Jan 17, 2019 20:55:25 GMT -5
It was. My understanding that this subject was covered once before and has been publically stated by the company that most patents extend to 2030 - 31 or so. It's not the first time matt made claims that were not true. Seems to be a pattern of behavior.
|
|
|
Post by radgray68 on Jan 17, 2019 22:55:08 GMT -5
Good golly I sure hope they aren't thinking of selling ANY time soon. After the turbulence of the last 5 years, CRL, the criminal number the FDA did to our label, Sanofi, near bankruptcy, refinancing, reverse split, not to mention a complete change of the company's methods of operating, full integration, and miles and miles of angst, do any of you want to sell now? We are just about to start our flight. Give it 5 more years of growth... please. We've waited this long.
|
|
|
Post by buyitonsale on Jan 18, 2019 0:14:41 GMT -5
After 200K T1D pediatric patients leave their outdated pens and pumps... we will be getting offers because those adopters are the future ...
|
|
|
Post by mango on Jan 18, 2019 9:54:35 GMT -5
After 200K T1D pediatric patients leave their outdated pens and pumps... we will be getting offers because those afapters are the future ... Afapter what about Afrapter? Either way... Can we submit it to be in the dictionary?
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 18, 2019 10:06:43 GMT -5
They previously had a $500M offer on the table for 51% and refused.
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Jan 18, 2019 10:34:53 GMT -5
You have to keep in mind that the purchase price has to look reasonable to the shareholders of the acquiring company or else the management of that company will not be long for this world. Most deals still get done at a 20-35% premium over a recent market price, and a handful get done at a 50% premium, but very few get done at higher prices. Today MNKD has a market cap of $258 so 150% of market is roughly $380 million. The purchaser also gets to pay off all the debt and other liabilities which adds another $250 million to the price tag. In order to get more than that, MNKD has to show much stronger fundamentals that will move the market price north of where it is. Buyers will fork out a modest premium to get an asset that fits with their portfolio, but they want to see more than hopes and dreams. Also keep in mind that with TS all the key patents are expired at this point so if that ever does become the next big thing in drug delivery there will be generic imitators emerging rapidly. That puts something of a ceiling on the value of that part of the portfolio. Thing is..Mannkind..doesn't need to be acquired..has fianance and outlicense deals..rolling in..7 pipe items..this Oscar can grow..already has the most awesomest drug...whats big pharma without the most awesomest drug?..overpriced slow in and out..and pretty much irrelevant...flatlined..sitting on their lorals..over billing to make up for their lazyness..just sayn...cars..beat buggies..planes beet walking..and driving..and big pharma can lie to themselves..the future is coming..they can't stop it.. At this point the worst is over. MNKD now has control over their future. Scripts will continue to grow although slowly until further SOC changes happen. The UT deals provide a bigger market cap than is currently reflected in the pps.
However, MNKD provides a huge risk to BP. Up until recently the general feeling was afrezza did not really work too good based on the studies. Now, when some one says this you give them the Libre and a "small" (4u) and you have them give it a try and prove what they are saying. They can't.
The bottom line is with CGMs, afrezza and the Libre numbers do not lie. There is no longer any hiding. At the same time, Mike has some breathing room and is sitting on the biggest drug in pharma history.
|
|