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Post by mnholdem on Jul 31, 2014 8:57:29 GMT -5
A quick note from this 'newbie": I have decided to accept Hammer’s invitation to join Pro Board. Some of you may know me or have read my YMB posts. After perusing this board, I am convinced that this is the place to be in order to share thoughtful ideas in a respectful manner. My first submission is a reprint of a recent comment I posted on YMB.
Hammer’s first thread/post is an excellent example of how complex deals can be, and why they can cause delays. I happen to support Hammer’s restructuring thesis, although with minor variations and completely different parties. That stated, one of the main reasons I am convinced the announcement has taken so long is due to the preparation of what I consider to be a key driver - the global sales plan.
When presented with the upcoming announcement of the Mannkind deal(s), a global sales & marketing plan would significantly increase the company's valuation and determine what pps investors are willing to invest. Regardless of the BPs involved, the S&M plan will likely include a timeline for application and launch in Europe, China and India.
Manufacturing is ready for samples to be handed off to an already trained sales force, in addition to samples being readied to be shipped throughout the USA, where Afrezza has already been approved. The Pharma(s) involved will present a domestic sales forecasts, as well as an estimate of potential market share internationally.
Remember, the mealtime insulin market presently is $5 billion ONLY because there is no alternate fast-acting mealtime drug available that is non-injectable. Several analysts have already predicted that Afrezza will SIGNIFICANTLY expand this particular market, so don't be surprised to hear some fairly big estimates. In the hands of a global giant (or two) with a powerful sales presence already active in the diabetes market, a plant that is ready, and a killer marketing campaign, the new Pharma(s) estimates will convince you of Afrezza's status as a true block buster.
Significant reduction of hypoglycemia dangers and competitive pricing will attract 3rd party payers and we'll likely hear of several that have already signed on to gladly cover Afrezza, convinced that it will reduce medical costs associated with diabetes.
Guys and gals, may I present to you... ummmm. Well, we're ALL gonna have to wait for the announcement. Do you feel a little more confident now? I hope so. I'm not the least bit concerned with the daily gyrations of MNKD pps. I know and YOU know it's all about to happen. So chin up. Good fortune all!
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Post by mannmade on Jul 31, 2014 11:24:23 GMT -5
mnholdem, welcome to the board... Yes I do agree with you and have referenced this need in several posts. It will be a strong show of support if correctly constructed. The shorts/bears will try to tear the partnership deal apart no matter what so every world in the PR will have to be crafted like a Presidential speech. I also mentioned that it would be very helpful if they were to address the "X" amount of millions they plan to spend on marketing and advertising to educate the insurance companies, medical professionals/community and the patient population especially on the subject of early adoption fot T-2's.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 31, 2014 14:31:36 GMT -5
mnholdem, welcome to the board... Yes I do agree with you and have referenced this need in several posts. It will be a strong show of support if correctly constructed. The shorts/bears will try to tear the partnership deal apart no matter what so every world in the PR will have to be crafted like a Presidential speech. I also mentioned that it would be very helpful if they were to address the "X" amount of millions they plan to spend on marketing and advertising to educate the insurance companies, medical professionals/community and the patient population especially on the subject of early adoption fot T-2's. How much leeway does a drug company have in educating about things such as early adoption for T-2's that isn't included on the label? I saw one short thesis argument include the notion that if something isn't on the label it basically prevents the company from including the idea in marketing... to the extreme of saying that since the label didn't class it as an "ultra fast" insulin or mention this difference, that basically prevents Mannkind from marketing that as a benefit. I assume that the answer might be different for print/TV ads aimed at consumers vs the marketing that is done to doctors and caregivers. |
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Post by mannmade on Jul 31, 2014 14:48:46 GMT -5
Am not sure about the answer to your question but I do believe the notion of early adoption for T-2's is supported by the national Endocrinologist's Community and the Medical Head of the ADA. So there should be a way to get the message out as a preventative measure. And as a preventative measure (with the health care cost savings implied) it should get the insurance companies behind the notion as well.
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Post by kc on Jul 31, 2014 15:43:59 GMT -5
Welcome to the darkside. Been reading your messages on Yahoo for month's and alway apprecate your common sense postings. Glad you dropped in at this site.
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Post by liane on Jul 31, 2014 20:36:09 GMT -5
The long and the short:
If it's not in the label, a company cannot make claims or market to such.
However, once a drug is approved and on the market, physicians can and will use it as they see fit. Obviously, they assume some risk in doing this. But it is done frequently - that's why medicine is an art.
The other trick is getting insurers to pay for off-label uses. A physician has to be prepared to document the benefit as well as why more traditional therapies are not as effective. Even then, the insurers can still say no.
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Post by chauffe00 on Aug 2, 2014 11:13:51 GMT -5
Thanks for all the input!
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