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Post by Clement on Oct 17, 2018 11:06:30 GMT -5
How long do you think it will take analysts to get on board with MNKD's much-improved financial condition? I'm guessing about a week.
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Post by pat on Oct 17, 2018 11:34:46 GMT -5
I think it’s going to be a long time before we have sell side analyst coverage from any large WS firms.
If I remember right Jefferies did something a few years back which proved to be completely off base.
Coverage will likely materialize after the shorts leave and we re-price, which should follow upon increased Afrezza revenue.
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Post by patten1962 on Oct 17, 2018 11:56:43 GMT -5
Morningstar is the only one covering UTHR. I just checked hoping to see who was covering them and hoping they would cover Mannkind.
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Post by Clement on Oct 17, 2018 11:58:56 GMT -5
Pat, thanks for your comments.
I do agree with you that analysts usually materialize AFTER the trend up and to the right has already been firmly established!
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Post by nemzter on Oct 17, 2018 14:33:12 GMT -5
How long do you think it will take analysts to get on board with MNKD's much-improved financial condition? I'm guessing about a week. When we hit $5+ share
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Post by seanismorris on Oct 17, 2018 14:35:31 GMT -5
MannKind needs to beat expectations...
If MannKind said “they project being cash flow positive the 1st half of 2019” that would probably get some notice..
Improved financial condition when MannKind is still bleeding cash isn’t that exciting.
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 17, 2018 16:02:50 GMT -5
MannKind needs to beat expectations... If MannKind said “they project being cash flow positive the 1st half of 2019” that would probably get some notice.. Improved financial condition when MannKind is still bleeding cash isn’t that exciting. I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive.
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Post by patten1962 on Oct 17, 2018 16:15:10 GMT -5
MannKind needs to beat expectations... If MannKind said “they project being cash flow positive the 1st half of 2019” that would probably get some notice.. Improved financial condition when MannKind is still bleeding cash isn’t that exciting. I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive. I watched that also. I could not agree with you more.
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Post by goyocafe on Oct 17, 2018 16:18:11 GMT -5
MannKind needs to beat expectations... If MannKind said “they project being cash flow positive the 1st half of 2019” that would probably get some notice.. Improved financial condition when MannKind is still bleeding cash isn’t that exciting. I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive. Mike’s recent reference to RLS was possibly a clue to a catalyst that wasn’t on anyone’s radar. I think most of us had written off RLS not forgotten about it, but as valuations go, as per others on the street, a partnership with a cannabinoid player would certainly be one that could reset MNKD’s valuation almost overnight, regardless of revenues. Jmho
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Post by seanismorris on Oct 17, 2018 18:49:23 GMT -5
MannKind needs to beat expectations... If MannKind said “they project being cash flow positive the 1st half of 2019” that would probably get some notice.. Improved financial condition when MannKind is still bleeding cash isn’t that exciting. I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive. I somewhat agree. The problem is MannKind has zero credibility with analysts. What they’ve said in the past is “wishful thinking” projections and have lacked in the execution department. It’s one thing for Amazon (Tesla, Netflix, etc.) to eat years of losses to to build up a customer base and distribution network. They clearly explain what they’re doing and do it. MannKind has been bumbling around trying to sell Afrezza, first with a partner, then with an outsourced sales team, then with an internal sales force. All the while cycling through Management teams. When we look at MannKind we see progress, but we (& analysts) have seen it before. With MannKind, it’s always one more thing they need to fix before Affrezza sales takes off. Fix the spirometry test. Fix FDA trials. Fix Label. Fix sales team. Fix insurance coverage. Fix marketing. Fix coupons. Fix doc communication. Fix packages/dosing. Fix. Fix. Fix. Analysts don’t care. Analysts are number guys, they don’t care what the latest excuse is. Analysts want to see the numbers, and management meeting those numbers. Analysts want to see those numbers, then they want to go around and collect data that makes themselves look good. And say, I.e. I think Afrezza sales are going to beat expectations by 20%. Analysts don’t care if MannKind or Afrezza succeeds, they get paid by being right. They’d be perfectly happy to predict a company’s downfall as predict their success. The point is MannKind is to unpredictable. Until they start a success story with a accurate projections, almost all the coverage will be sell side. All the “good news” coming out of MannKind is meaningless until is starts to effect the bottom line. We can only get so far with the stock price with the message being “bankruptcy isn’t imminent”. The dollars coming in need to increase exponentially for analysts (the ones we want) to take interest.
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Post by traderdennis on Oct 17, 2018 19:10:49 GMT -5
I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive. I somewhat agree. The problem is MannKind has zero credibility with analysts. What they’ve said in the past is “wishful thinking” projections and have lacked in the execution department. It’s one thing for Amazon (Tesla, Netflix, etc.) to eat years of losses to to build up a customer base and distribution network. They clearly explain what they’re doing and do it. MannKind has been bumbling around trying to sell Afrezza, first with a partner, then with an outsourced sales team, then with an internal sales force. All the while cycling through Management teams. When we look at MannKind we see progress, but we (& analysts) have seen it before. With MannKind, it’s always one more thing they need to fix before Affrezza sales takes off. Fix the spirometry test. Fix FDA trials. Fix Label. Fix sales team. Fix insurance coverage. Fix marketing. Fix coupons. Fix doc communication. Fix packages/dosing. Fix. Fix. Fix. Analysts don’t care. Analysts are number guys, they don’t care what the latest excuse is. Analysts want to see the numbers, and management meeting those numbers. Analysts want to see those numbers, then they want to go around and collect data that makes themselves look good. And say, I.e. I think Afrezza sales are going to beat expectations by 20%. Analysts don’t care if MannKind or Afrezza succeeds, they get paid by being right. They’d be perfectly happy to predict a company’s downfall as predict their success. The point is MannKind is to unpredictable. Until they start a success story with a accurate projections, almost all the coverage will be sell side. All the “good news” coming out of MannKind is meaningless until is starts to effect the bottom line. We can only get so far with the stock price with the message being “bankruptcy isn’t imminent”. The dollars coming in need to increase exponentially for analysts (the ones we want) to take interest. There is not a lot of coverage for $300 Million market cap companies in general with revenue around $20 Million per year. Multiply by a factor of 10 and you will start to get coverage.
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Post by sayhey24 on Oct 17, 2018 19:24:59 GMT -5
I was watching CNBC coverage about Netflix today. Only one analyst in the group said it was overvalued. That person emphasized how much money they lose every year and will lose even more next year. The others kept talking about subscriber growth even though the cost of gaining each one of those subscribers was 100x the revenue generated by each subscriber. Sounds like “clicks and eyeballs” used to justify super high valuations in the dot com bubble. (Tesla is another prime example.) My point here is that MNKD can get positive coverage and higher valuations even without being cash flow positive. Mike’s recent reference to RLS was possibly a clue to a catalyst that wasn’t on anyone’s radar. I think most of us had written off RLS not forgotten about it, but as valuations go, as per others on the street, a partnership with a cannabinoid player would certainly be one that could reset MNKD’s valuation almost overnight, regardless of revenues. Jmho I fully agree except I have been following RLS since initial rumors and check everyday for the press release. Hope springs eternal. When I went to the annual meeting in Danbury for the 2017 shareholders meeting I went in search of the RLS lab expecting it to be across the street.
Today was the big day in Canada and Starbucks has more stores in Canada per capita than any other country. With all the discussion of Microsoft and then the outing of Arthur Rubinfeld we have 1 degree of separation between Arthur and Kevin Johnson since their days at Microsoft and then at Starbucks. If RLS is doing both medical and recreational products, I can think of no better retail distributor for a TS product than Starbucks at a time when Starbucks needs a boost to sales.
If such an announcement was made MNKD share price history says it will decrease. However that did not happen yet with UT this week and if there really is an RLS/MNKD/Starbucks partnership IMO it would blow the pps off the radar screen. GWPH closed over $147 today, Tilray at $148. Our triad should be 2x those. I can't believe Rubinfeld left a multi-million $ position at Starbucks for a no name, no potential, do nothing company. No way.
Mike said its a hot market right now so I expect a release soon and will check again tomorrow.
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Post by mnkdfann on Oct 17, 2018 20:38:47 GMT -5
Today was the big day in Canada and Starbucks has more stores in Canada per capita than any other country. With all the discussion of Microsoft and then the outing of Arthur Rubinfeld we have 1 degree of separation between Arthur and Kevin Johnson since their days at Microsoft and then at Starbucks. If RLS is doing both medical and recreational products, I can think of no better retail distributor for a TS product than Starbucks at a time when Starbucks needs a boost to sales.
If such an announcement was made MNKD share price history says it will decrease. However that did not happen yet with UT this week and if there really is an RLS/MNKD/Starbucks partnership IMO it would blow the pps off the radar screen. GWPH closed over $147 today, Tilray at $148. Our triad should be 2x those. I can't believe Rubinfeld left a multi-million $ position at Starbucks for a no name, no potential, do nothing company. No way.
Cannabis edibles in retail outlets in Canada is not happening anytime soon; at least not for a year. And if Trudeau and his party lose next year's federal election, maybe never. Word direct from the Canadian government: www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/news/2018/06/backgrounder-the-cannabis-act-the-facts.html"Initially, adults will be able to legally purchase fresh or dried cannabis, cannabis oil, and seeds and plants for cultivation. Other products, such as edibles, will be permitted for legal sale within one year following the coming into force of the Cannabis Act, at which time federal regulations for their production and sale will have been developed and brought into force." Of course, the phrase 'will be permitted' above is just a bunch of weasel words. It is only sort of assured to be permitted if (as I said) Trudeau's party stays in power.
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Post by letitride on Oct 17, 2018 21:34:46 GMT -5
2009 remember SIRI how many analyst covered it. If they had a clue or were not already bought and paid for guess what the would say. Billions served could have been Micis steak house.
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Post by mnkdfann on Oct 18, 2018 7:51:47 GMT -5
How long do you think it will take analysts to get on board with MNKD's much-improved financial condition? I'm guessing about a week. I think it is already happening, but the thing to keep in mind is that (most if not all of) the small fish analysts who get on board early are going to be (IMO) crooked and or pump and dumpers. When will legit big-fish analysts get on board? I think that will still take a while longer, for reasons others have already stated.
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