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Post by boytroy88 on Dec 2, 2018 19:56:24 GMT -5
Agree. There is considerable volatility in the script numbers week to week so a single data point, no matter how much improved it may be, will launch the stock to the moon. Similarly, if the scripts come in at 400 it should not tank the stock for the exact same reason. Now if there was a 800 week followed sequentially by 900, 1,050, and 1,200 that might be considered a permanent upward change in the trend line and the stock price might react accordingly. Single data points won't help, multi-week line segments with a distinctly positive slope might. Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way. Hopefully there is a permanent upward change due to a high volume of DTC, especially after inked deal with United, which provided additional $$$. Lets be hopeful and see a trend beginning Q4 2018 and taking off in Q1 2019. On a side note, I am hoping deal with Brazil will happen tomorrow. Actually, I beg to differ. I agree with you that if scripts came in the 800's next week not much will happen to the SP (probably increase $0.10 or so). But if scripts came in at 400 the SP will indeed, IMHO, tank - at least for the next couple of weeks if there's no positive news coming out. The SP will probably bounce back to the present range after that but pretty sure the dip will happen.
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Post by olebob1 on Dec 2, 2018 20:14:06 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Agree. There is considerable volatility in the script numbers week to week so a single data point, no matter how much improved it may be, will launch the stock to the moon. Similarly, if the scripts come in at 400 it should not tank the stock for the exact same reason. Now if there was a 800 week followed sequentially by 900, 1,050, and 1,200 that might be considered a permanent upward change in the trend line and the stock price might react accordingly. Single data points won't help, multi-week line segments with a distinctly positive slope might. Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way. Matt, is a "starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales" $1 million or do we need to wait for $57 million in weekly sales" to know for sure? Maybe the trend has started!
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Post by peppy on Dec 2, 2018 20:18:56 GMT -5
Not much will happen, these milestones of “700” or “800” only exist in our heads. Reality is, even if we hit 800 relatively soon, that isn’t good enough at this point in time. Agree. There is considerable volatility in the script numbers week to week so a single data point, no matter how much improved it may be, will launch the stock to the moon. Similarly, if the scripts come in at 400 it should not tank the stock for the exact same reason. Now if there was a 800 week followed sequentially by 900, 1,050, and 1,200 that might be considered a permanent upward change in the trend line and the stock price might react accordingly. Single data points won't help, multi-week line segments with a distinctly positive slope might. Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way.I disagree. or said differently, what a bunch of bologna. Quote: Keep in mind that the market looks at MNKD's script numbers and revenue figures along side those of Humalog and Novolog. When MNKD starts to trend toward $58 million in weekly sales, which is what Lilly and Novo report every week (each of them), then the market will think something has changed in a material way. Reply: The market will be first. The market will know.
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 2, 2018 21:36:38 GMT -5
Wow ... sounds like porkini has been into my half empty wine bottle.
Now ... let's contemplate sports' navel.
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Post by goyocafe on Dec 2, 2018 21:50:15 GMT -5
Wow ... sounds like porkini has been into my half empty wine bottle. Now ... let's contemplate sports' navel. Ah, yes, that N=N-OH will have you pondering the marvels of the world every time.
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Post by seanismorris on Dec 2, 2018 21:50:17 GMT -5
The glass was half full of hope, and half full of vacuum. Naturally it diffused... and we’re left with diluted hope.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 2, 2018 22:18:08 GMT -5
Good and fun post CCI. I was thinking the same. If the perfect storm finally converges with a 3-day week followed by the recent TV ads kicking in, 800 or high 700's is possible. I'm not betting on it but wouldn't be that surprised. Nothing wrong with a little hopium. No harm, no foul.
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Post by longliner on Dec 3, 2018 0:48:54 GMT -5
Absolutely no harm or foul in believing your investment goals will come to pass. I love the trajectory, scripts, revenue and deals. When invested you may vote with your dollars or vote with your feet (stay or go). As for the rest well......there is that. Rise baby rise.
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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 3, 2018 15:25:15 GMT -5
$1 million/week is a goal that will probably come at the same time as 700 scripts when looking at the $$/script averages. I still think we'll see it by the end of the year.
At $1M/week for the rest of 2018 we'll be just under 100% growth over 2017 for Q4, and tracking close to an average of 20% Q-over-Q growth for the year (Symphony sales stats)
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Post by me on Dec 5, 2018 15:50:57 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on. As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off. So lets look at the numbers: Week ending 11/23 TRx 517 vs 639 TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k NRx 214 va 274 NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx. So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? As much as I would love to see a jump in scripts, it appears that NRx has been flat over the last 6 months, and that's a bit disconcerting. I hope that's because there has been a transition from 30DS scripts to 90DS, but that is impossible to tell from the Symphony data we have (even though the increasing $ per script hints at it).
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 5, 2018 22:24:17 GMT -5
It's so difficult to interpret the impact of weekly scripts maybe we should follow Mike's advice and focus on quarterly trends. As the saying goes, follow the money. The revenue chart is impressive enough to wonder why anyone could be seriously concerned about the future. I know, I know. You can look backwards historically and project continued slow growth but IMO that's a very shallow perspective. The trend shows significant growth and with the increase in TV ads there's reason to think it's going to get better. GLTA.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 6, 2018 23:16:00 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on. As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off. So lets look at the numbers: Week ending 11/23 TRx 517 vs 639 TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k NRx 214 va 274 NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx. So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? What if wild monkeys fly out of my butt.
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Post by peppy on Dec 6, 2018 23:29:27 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on. As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off. So lets look at the numbers: Week ending 11/23 TRx 517 vs 639 TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k NRx 214 va 274 NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx. So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? What if wild monkeys fly out of my butt. then all your problems will be over and you can die a happy man. (I hear that's what happens when monkeys make it to the end of the intestinal track and fly out the buttock.)
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Dec 7, 2018 0:00:20 GMT -5
Warning: The following post was generated while under the influence of a large dose of hopeium. I have been off of hopeium for awhile but relapsed. So if you are interested in a balanced viewpoint on this post please do not read on. As I reviewed and thought about the script numbers from yesterday, I found reason to be hopeful for next week. To begin, I believe that the Thanksgiving Week is perhaps the worst week of the year for prescriptions. Most doctor offices are closed Thursday and Friday. Millions of people travel on Wednesday and millions more take the whole week off. So lets look at the numbers: Week ending 11/23 TRx 517 vs 639 TRx $733.78k vs $899.30k NRx 214 va 274 NRx $321.99k vs $372.93k For purposes of my hopeium analysis, I am going to assume that virtually no prescriptions were generated on Thursday and Friday. So for three days, 172 (517/3) prescriptions were generated on each day, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If that rate occurred last week, we would have 860 (172x5). Granted, this is probably an overly optimistic analysis. But consider this, a new aggressive TV advertising campaign has been under way for a couple of weeks. The refill rate has continued to improve. Which means that any up swing in new prescriptions could quickly improve Trx. So what will the market do next Friday if we skip the 700s altogether and jump to the 800s and reach revenue over $1,000,000? Will this finally break the resolve of the shorts? I’m thinking maybe. If we break 800 next week, I think the stock moves to $3. But again, this is a hopeium based analysis and I will likely be disappointed again. However, the Thanksgiving week gave me reason to hope. What do you think? What if wild monkeys fly out of my butt. So what your saying is that you don’t think it will happen. LOL
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Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2018 0:06:01 GMT -5
My guess for tomorrow's numbers is: TRX 625; Total sales $875,000.
I will be thrilled if we break 700, happy if we break 650, okay if it comes out around 625.
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