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Post by compound26 on Dec 21, 2018 16:57:56 GMT -5
200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week and have for a year now. Less than 10% stay on the med. Not a recipe for compounding growth and not much changing in the near future. Sad story Of course 200 to 300 new patients do NOT start on Afrezza every week. The number of "new prescriptions" does NOT equal the number of new patients, since a patient can be given multiple prescriptions over time as his or her doc adjusts the dosages or the patient gets insurance coverage or his or her prescription expires. Each one of those prescriptions falls into the "new" category. I've been taking thyroid meds for years and over those years have received literally dozens of "new" prescriptions. I'll be a happy dog when "200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week," but that's something that will surely happen in the future. No need to argue on this point. There are detailed released data on this point already. In Mannkind's third quarter presentation, there is a slide showing the year to date new to brand prescriptions. The number is 5,993 NBRX through the first nine months of 2018. You divide that by 39 weeks and will get an average weekly NBRX of 153.67. As a comparison, the NBRX for the first 9 months of 2017 was 3,962, You divide that by 39 weeks and will get an average weekly NBRX of 101.59.
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Post by traderdennis on Dec 21, 2018 17:19:58 GMT -5
200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week and have for a year now. Less than 10% stay on the med. Not a recipe for compounding growth and not much changing in the near future. Sad story Of course 200 to 300 new patients do NOT start on Afrezza every week. The number of "new prescriptions" does NOT equal the number of new patients, since a patient can be given multiple prescriptions over time as his or her doc adjusts the dosages or the patient gets insurance coverage or his or her prescription expires. Each one of those prescriptions falls into the "new" category. I've been taking thyroid meds for years and over those years have received literally dozens of "new" prescriptions. I'll be a happy dog when "200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week," but that's something that will surely happen in the future. A back of the napkin math would be to take nrx and subtract out 33-50% of rrx to come up with brand new patients.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 19:09:21 GMT -5
Three years from now I expect the following: 1. Afrezza weekly scripts at 3,000 plus (3,000 being break even) 2. Trep T driving revenue in a $6b market which I expect it to take 10% of (you can do the math) 3. RLS w 2 or 3 TS products selling 4. Uthr 2nd, 3rd and 4th molecules either in late stage development or on the market 5. Additional 2 to 3 outside molecule deals done 6. Uthr (or another company) buy in for 20 to 30% similar to Sanofi / regeneron deal. 7. Afrezza selling for pediatrics 8. Afrezza prominently included in SoC if not the SoC for mealtime. 9. Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, Britain, China
Am sure there is more but enough said... Happy holidays to all!!!
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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Jan 3, 2019 12:53:41 GMT -5
... and share price at ...? How many R/S in between?
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 3, 2019 16:27:56 GMT -5
Three years from now I expect the following: 1. Afrezza weekly scripts at 3,000 plus (3,000 being break even) 2. Trep T driving revenue in a $6b market which I expect it to take 10% of (you can do the math) 3. RLS w 2 or 3 TS products selling 4. Uthr 2nd, 3rd and 4th molecules either in late stage development or on the market 5. Additional 2 to 3 outside molecule deals done 6. Uthr (or another company) buy in for 20 to 30% similar to Sanofi / regeneron deal. 7. Afrezza selling for pediatrics 8. Afrezza prominently included in SoC if not the SoC for mealtime. 9. Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, Britain, China Am sure there is more but enough said... Happy holidays to all!!! Could you please explain how 3,000 scripts was determined as break even? Thanks.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 3, 2019 16:50:03 GMT -5
Fairly simple as follows (also a very rough estimate from available numbers) Last week we had 757 scripts or so with a bit over 1.1m in rev. Assuming 50% is net rev to mnkd that is $550 x 52 was = $28.6m per year. Multiply by 4 and you get roughly 3,000 scripts per week roughly.
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Post by patten1962 on Jan 4, 2019 6:34:39 GMT -5
Three years from now I expect the following: 1. Afrezza weekly scripts at 3,000 plus (3,000 being break even) 2. Trep T driving revenue in a $6b market which I expect it to take 10% of (you can do the math) 3. RLS w 2 or 3 TS products selling 4. Uthr 2nd, 3rd and 4th molecules either in late stage development or on the market 5. Additional 2 to 3 outside molecule deals done 6. Uthr (or another company) buy in for 20 to 30% similar to Sanofi / regeneron deal. 7. Afrezza selling for pediatrics 8. Afrezza prominently included in SoC if not the SoC for mealtime. 9. Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, Britain, China Am sure there is more but enough said... Happy holidays to all!!! Great post. 3 years from now hope to have significantly more Scripts than 3k. 😁💪
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 4, 2019 12:44:55 GMT -5
I thought proboards was free from fake id trolls. Isn't there a moderator for that? We have enough work blocking all their fake id's and nonsense posts on ST. I only come here for factual information & to view the discussion among investors. Are the moderators now allowing non investor fakes here too? I'm curious, how are the moderators supposed to do that, how does one know that a poster is a "fake id troll"?
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Post by liane on Jan 4, 2019 13:02:22 GMT -5
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Post by mannmade on Jan 4, 2019 13:05:55 GMT -5
Three years from now I expect the following: 1. Afrezza weekly scripts at 3,000 plus (3,000 being break even) 2. Trep T driving revenue in a $6b market which I expect it to take 10% of (you can do the math) 3. RLS w 2 or 3 TS products selling 4. Uthr 2nd, 3rd and 4th molecules either in late stage development or on the market 5. Additional 2 to 3 outside molecule deals done 6. Uthr (or another company) buy in for 20 to 30% similar to Sanofi / regeneron deal. 7. Afrezza selling for pediatrics 8. Afrezza prominently included in SoC if not the SoC for mealtime. 9. Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, Britain, China Am sure there is more but enough said... Happy holidays to all!!! Great post. 3 years from now hope to have significantly more Scripts than 3k. 😁💪 Was meant to be a conservative minimum. Thx!
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Post by patten1962 on Jan 4, 2019 13:16:46 GMT -5
Great post. 3 years from now hope to have significantly more Scripts than 3k. 😁💪 Was meant to be a conservative minimum. Thx! I know! I love what you post Man! Keep writing!
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 4, 2019 22:44:58 GMT -5
There's also the fact that staff does not disclose to the membership at large when administrative actions occur or how frequently. Trust me when I say that the forum would be much wilder if it weren't for the dedicated staff members who do their very best to serve you.
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