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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2019 13:15:00 GMT -5
I am all for voting in or out some of the board members. I think there could be some better choices. But Mike is here to stay in my opinion. He’ll keep knocking down barriers, turning to the left if he can’t turn to the right and make this company into what he believes it can be. I just don’t want to get into a cycle of dilution where the company is living off the shareholders until it breaks even. It would be better to knowledge that getting a partner would move things along quicker. Or lease out Afrezza and spend the money on TS. Which by the way would do wonders for the stock price:-)
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Post by kimi on Jan 1, 2019 13:30:22 GMT -5
sports --> No Fear (about your shares)--> but better never do option trading again
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 1, 2019 13:36:10 GMT -5
Mike should step down.....and the BOD is and has been worthless for a decade. Wow. Thank you for that deeply insightful and very helpful analysis and observation. Take a look at the Afrezza sales chart that posts every week. Do the math on the percentage increase in sales since January 2017. Take a look at the revenue as compared to when Sanofi was selling Afrezza (with supposedly 500 salespeople or approximately 5X the quantity working for Mannkind Corp now). Take a look at how long it took to go from the range of 400 Rx a week to 500, and then 500 to 600, and then 600 to 700. What you will see is a pattern of acceleration and it does not seem unreasonable to anticipate it will continue. In fact the numbers indicate better than linear performance. It's too early to say it is the upswing in the long awaited "hockey stick". We'll need to see if 1Q or at least 2019 can maintain the momentum. It is noteworthy that Mannkind salesforce is acheiving new sales records for new prescriptions, not just refills. If the sales growth was only linear it would still indicate likely profitability on sales of Afrezza in the next 2 to 3 years. That is not what we're hoping for, but I've worked in an industry where profitability takes a long time (3 to 5 years) to achieve so the current progress doesn't bother me a bit. It's definitely material and moving in the right direction. I feel like Dr. Castagna inherited a gem in the rough and he's worked harder than most CEOs do to polish it and make it recognized for the value I believe it has. Step down? I'd be OK with Ken Kresa stepping down at some point (no hurry for that either) and letting Mike hold that role too. I think we lucked out and got a rock star and if you can't see that, well, I'm not very interested in reading any more of your posts or the posts of any of the other low count no count posters either. For those who think I'm blind to impacts on stock price or mindful management of the source and costs of capital, I'll politely disagree and merely say that I prefer to let things develop some before coming to any conclusions about good choices or missteps. Already our first 'Post of the Year' in 2019. Common sense is so hard to find, but if you look deep..you'll find spots. Nothing like calling out the BS, "Mike should step down." If you're a long term shareholder you would see how much work Mike has done since he took over the role as MNKD CEO, as so eloquently stated by PRC. You never cease to bring a level head to the table. I'm going to pull up a chair.
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 1, 2019 13:37:41 GMT -5
I am all for voting in or out some of the board members. I think there could be some better choices. But Mike is here to stay in my opinion. He’ll keep knocking down barriers, turning to the left if he can’t turn to the right and make this company into what he believes it can be. I just don’t want to get into a cycle of dilution where the company is living off the shareholders until it breaks even. It would be better to knowledge that getting a partner would move things along quicker. Or lease out Afrezza and spend the money on TS. Which by the way would do wonders for the stock price:-) Exactly the points others have made here and in articles on SA. TS is bigger than Afrezza, no doubt in my mind.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2019 13:47:41 GMT -5
sports --> No Fear (about your shares)--> but better never do option trading again Actually option trading is all I do, the only shares I own are MNKD. Someone on Twitter sent me this just now ...
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2019 14:08:52 GMT -5
Kimi,
I’m not sure where this misinformation keeps coming from but since this is the third time I’ve heard that I’ll explain it ..what I mean by wiped out is I mean my Roth is wiped out. Where my shares are. I happen to need that money for something else so I may not be even able to hold onto those shares. Since I thought by now it would have grown much more than it has. Instead of gaining value it lost value. The $2 2019 calls that a bunch of us bought over a year ago we got for $.16 ...in November we sold them for $.20 and rolled them over into next year or I should say this year:-) so actually I would consider that dead money, but not as bad as the performance of the shares.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2019 15:49:28 GMT -5
sports --> No Fear (about your shares)--> but better never do option trading again Actually option trading is all I do, the only shares I own are MNKD. Someone on Twitter sent me this just now ... This interview was in October doesn’t look like he’s on his last leg to me:-)
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 1, 2019 17:40:00 GMT -5
... Step down? I'd be OK with Ken Kresa stepping down at some point (no hurry for that either) and letting Mike hold that role too. I think we lucked out and got a rock star and if you can't see that, well, I'm not very interested in reading any more of your posts or the posts of any of the other low count no count posters either. I think that would be a very bad move. This is Mike's first time as a CEO and he needs someone like Ken Kresa who has experience guiding him. Mike is doing well, but he is learning on the job, he has never been in this sort of position before. I second this opinion. Kresa is very valuable to this management team and is feeling some pain from his $1M buy last year.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 1, 2019 18:03:03 GMT -5
There are two questions with regard to afrezza going into 2019.
The first is what affect will the limited SOC changes have to T1 sales? Maybe this past weeks numbers are a positive indicator. If so 3X 2018 sales seems doable and then MNKD is getting close to break even.
The second is what does Dr. Kendall have planned for ADA2019? Will we see anything regarding the T2s? A lesson from 2018 is that changes can be made to the SOCs if data is presented at the ADA meeting.
I think it’s important to know exactly what data the ADA wants that it doesn’t already have with regard to Afrezza. The FDA has already indicated that it is equally efficacious as injectable insulin, so why the resistance to list it along side its injectable counterparts in the recommended protocol? Awareness would climb significantly with that recommendation as much as reluctance to prescribe it would decline. we don’t need Afrezza to replace the recommendation for injectable mealtime insulin to gain market share, but as long as the ADA lists it below bariatric surgery in the document, it will continue to be viewed as a secondary, inferior option. I think MNKD knows why the ADA won’t list Afrezza as an equal. I would like them to state it publicly for the record. When we are talking afrezza we are talking two separate markets and two separate SOCs. Afrezza was always thought more of a T2 drug but its finding more of an immediate market with the T1s. Each SOC needs to be addressed separately.
The current T1 SOC has a glaring problem. It lists afrezza as an analog which is medically wrong. This needs to be fixed and everyone knows it but to fix it afrezza needs its own category. I am sure Dr. Kendall is working this behind the scenes but giving afrezza its own category of lets say ultra rapid is a game changer. Then what? Does FIASP get included? Clearly its inferior to afrezza in on/off speed. Does afrezza sit alone in that category with no potential competition in anyone's pipeline?
For the T2s work needs to be done to turn the 118 study into a large scale study. Without the studies the ADA is not going to give afrezza a pass. In the short term we have the T2 One Drop study which in theory should be very positive for afrezza. If these patients were actively coached which was the One Drop plan the results should exceed typical SGLT2 and GLP1 numbers. Do they hold these results for ADA2019?
I expect we will hear more on Dr. Kendall's plans very soon which include the lost studies.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Jan 1, 2019 19:51:15 GMT -5
Hey, Seyhey. I wish they would add a 2-thumbs-up button.
Anyway, it sure would be nice to find out that a large scale 118 study was lost and found.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 1, 2019 21:59:39 GMT -5
... Step down? I'd be OK with Ken Kresa stepping down at some point (no hurry for that either) and letting Mike hold that role too. I think we lucked out and got a rock star and if you can't see that, well, I'm not very interested in reading any more of your posts or the posts of any of the other low count no count posters either. I think that would be a very bad move. This is Mike's first time as a CEO and he needs someone like Ken Kresa who has experience guiding him. Mike is doing well, but he is learning on the job, he has never been in this sort of position before. Completely agree. I think we're lucky to have Ken Kresa too. I said "at some point" and "no hurry for that either" and meant both. I think this has been an interesting set of posts for the most part, although some haven't been worth the time it took to read them. I can agree with sportsrancho that at some point it may make more sense to focus on the TS pipeline than on Afrezza. I'm sure Mike would not argue. It's figuring out what that point in time is. I suspect Dr. Castagna's current emphasis is based on a similar viewpoint as mine which is that Afrezza is groundbreaking and if/when recognized appropriately is a gold mine waiting to be harvested. i.e., he wants to continue to push Afrezza as long as can be reasonably argued.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 2, 2019 1:22:37 GMT -5
Mike should step down.....and the BOD is and has been worthless for a decade. Wow. Thank you for that deeply insightful and very helpful analysis and observation. Take a look at the Afrezza sales chart that posts every week. Do the math on the percentage increase in sales since January 2017. Take a look at the revenue as compared to when Sanofi was selling Afrezza (with supposedly 500 salespeople or approximately 5X the quantity working for Mannkind Corp now). Take a look at how long it took to go from the range of 400 Rx a week to 500, and then 500 to 600, and then 600 to 700. What you will see is a pattern of acceleration and it does not seem unreasonable to anticipate it will continue. In fact the numbers indicate better than linear performance. It's too early to say it is the upswing in the long awaited "hockey stick". We'll need to see if 1Q or at least 2019 can maintain the momentum. It is noteworthy that Mannkind salesforce is acheiving new sales records for new prescriptions, not just refills. If the sales growth was only linear it would still indicate likely profitability on sales of Afrezza in the next 2 to 3 years. That is not what we're hoping for, but I've worked in an industry where profitability takes a long time (3 to 5 years) to achieve so the current progress doesn't bother me a bit. It's definitely material and moving in the right direction. I feel like Dr. Castagna inherited a gem in the rough and he's worked harder than most CEOs do to polish it and make it recognized for the value I believe it has. Step down? I'd be OK with Ken Kresa stepping down at some point (no hurry for that either) and letting Mike hold that role too. I think we lucked out and got a rock star and if you can't see that, well, I'm not very interested in reading any more of your posts or the posts of any of the other low count no count posters either. For those who think I'm blind to impacts on stock price or mindful management of the source and costs of capital, I'll politely disagree and merely say that I prefer to let things develop some before coming to any conclusions about good choices or missteps. I don't agree with Winstonsmith regarding Mike stepping down. But your comment to him, "Wow. Thank you for that deeply insightful and very helpful analysis and observation" was a bit harsh. There has been about three years or so of various events that might serve as evidence for his position re Mike, and there is no need for Winston to list them. Again, while I don't agree, I also don't his statement is unreasonable, especially in light of what has happened or hasn't happened since he came on board. I think Mike's done pretty well, and gets an outstanding or two from me. But not everything is rosy. For one, I think he pays certain high ranking employees too much. I also agree with Sports when she says he works day and night, I believe he does and gives us as good a shot as anyone at this point to turn MNKD into a successful enterprise.
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Post by winner on Jan 2, 2019 6:32:32 GMT -5
Good morning one and all In my opinion
Mike C did and continues to perform to the best of his abilities. I for one am glad he is at the helm. I may be wrong but I personally think BP is using its huge resources to make it as difficult as possible for MNKD to become successful. How many more tens of millions of dollars will be required to combat the resistance? A number of us took a huge hit on our equity holding when MNKD did their reverse split. For what its worth, I took a hit of low six figures. I believed in MNKD and rebuilt my holding! Please no more reverse splits. If we can't make with the existing share count, get a partner or sell the company. I try to stay positive but I am not looking forward to Fridays conference call.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 2, 2019 7:20:05 GMT -5
The no spin zone...
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 2, 2019 7:40:34 GMT -5
The cash raise remains very puzzling. It wasn't enough to do much other than maybe clean up a few things in house yet it was enough to really piss off shareholders which Mike had to know was going to happen. Add to this the fact that Mike had only recently said there was no need for further dilution at the time. IMO, the stock sale was not due to a cash "crunch" since it was so small and was more likely due to an immediate cash "need" for something we've not yet been told. Maybe it related to necessary funding for one of the pipeline deals or further testing for Afrezza. We've been disappointed many times with anticipation prior to a conference call. Mike's a smart man. I hope he comes through with a good explanation and it turns out John's tweet to MK wasn't far off.
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