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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 11, 2019 15:52:53 GMT -5
Should I wait to buy some of this stock or buy it now? Do you think the price will be higher of lower in next 6-8 weeks while we wait for ads?
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Post by kite on Jan 11, 2019 16:05:53 GMT -5
Should I wait to buy some of this stock or buy it now? Do you think the price will be higher of lower in next 6-8 weeks while we wait for ads? Who knows with MNKD. I've been buying small batches weekly |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 11, 2019 16:08:50 GMT -5
We are likely right in the middle at $1.30. Plus .30 gets us to warrants price and minus .30 gets us to $1.00 the recent low excluding brief lapse to .98. So 50/50 until real news in my opinion. Now there is some talk that that this may be a good time for shorts to cover w no real negative news on the horizon for 18 months or so and the possibility of good news in next 12 months so that may create a slow uptrend in share price.
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 11, 2019 16:14:22 GMT -5
I don't see Afrezza being any easier to dose than metformin (pulling out a cartridge, loading it into the inhaler, inhaling, taking cartridge out vs swallowing a pill in the morning and evening) and compliance with metformin isn't even that good. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10797/8-weeks-jan-14?page=7#ixzz5cKqlCgEJLOL. Let me rephrase the Metformin routine. Patient opens the prescription bottle, pours more than one pill out and fumbles with the bottle and the overcount now in the PWD’s hand, returns the extra pills to the bottle, Replaces the safety cap on the bottle, continues to the kitchen and grabs a glass from the cupboard. Closes the cupboard door behind them. Goes to the kitchen sink and lifts the faucet to start the flow of water. Tests the temperature of the water and places the glass under the stream and fills the glass with water. Places the Metformin in their mouth and Raises the glass of water to his/her mouth. Swallows the pill and places the used glass in the sink. Grabs the soapy sponge and washes the glass, which requires another cycle of turning the water on and off. Finally the patient dries the glass and replaces it in the cupboard. No wonder compliance with Metformin is not as good as it could be. Perhaps less bias would help this narrative. Jmho |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 11, 2019 16:25:11 GMT -5
Should I wait to buy some of this stock or buy it now? Do you think the price will be higher of lower in next 6-8 weeks while we wait for ads? You should definitely take stock picking advice from those of us on this message board. Our track records are impeccable. |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 11, 2019 16:31:19 GMT -5
Keep in mind that these patients are probably highly motivated. I guess I'm not completely sure how it works- if the patients seek out VDex or if they're referred by their physician. I also don't know their protocol, but if they're only using Afrezza, it would require at least one dose with every meal or snack as well as any random spikes that might happen, although I'd imagine those probably don't happen often if the PPGE are well-controlled. In any case, all VDex's results tell us is what is possible, not what is likely to happen. The full equation still includes the variable of patient compliance and, unfortunately, that's the most important part of the equation. The best tool in the wrong hand is worthless. It's still a lot of work and attention to ask of someone to spend monitoring their disease every day. For those who care enough to do it, they now have the ability to. I don't see Afrezza being any easier to dose than metformin (pulling out a cartridge, loading it into the inhaler, inhaling, taking cartridge out vs swallowing a pill in the morning and evening) and compliance with metformin isn't even that good. It's really sad, but there is still a significant chunk of the population that no matter how easy you make it for them to take their medications, they won't do it. The problem with diabetes (type 2) is that it takes so many years to really cause a lot of problems and it's not often that you have to look out for any acute type of events. Patients think they don't need medication if they feel "normal". Of course normal tends to drift over time but slowly enough to where it takes awhile before they start paying attention to it. Preventative medicine is sometimes a very hard sell- you're asking your patients to spend more money and be more disciplined now for better results later. Delayed gratification is becoming taboo in our culture. I think it's the opposite regarding preventative medicine - the trend is moving towards it rather than away from it. More people than ever are taking an active role in trying to live healthily. Agree, there are people who have difficulty or just refuse to be compliant taking their medications. Whether it's a "significant chunk" depends on how you define that. But it's still the vast minority of people, i.e. most people are compliant taking their meds. It's pretty easy to dose metformin or Afrezza, neither one is difficult at all. |
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 11, 2019 16:40:58 GMT -5
We are likely right in the middle at $1.30. Plus .30 gets us to warrants price and minus .30 gets us to $1.00 the recent low excluding brief lapse to .98. So 50/50 until real news in my opinion. Now there is some talk that that this may be a good time for shorts to cover w no real negative news on the horizon for 18 months or so and the possibility of good news in next 12 months so that may create a slow uptrend in share price. Do you think shorts will cover between $1 and $1.60? I bought 40,000 shares at 1.02. I was thinking of maybe buying more, but not sure how much it has left to climb. I saw something like 1.7 million shorts covered in December. I think there are about 40 million shorts left on this. Looking back on NASDAQ, I think most of them shorted long ago or at higher prices. I think this is a good buy. I have already made a 30% return. If it can get to 1.60, I'll sell half and let the profits ride. Do most here think it will get back to $1.60? |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 11, 2019 16:54:07 GMT -5
bigchungus, the other thing we on this board are expert at is predicting when the shorts will exit. Our crystal balls are infallible, just go back through the years of threads to see proof. And i apologize for my obnoxious sarcasm, i'm just punchy having made it to the end of a week. When the stock went from $50 to $30 (pre r/s), seemed reasonable to think shorts might exit. Same when it went from $30 to $20, $20 to $10, $10 to $5, $5 to $1... you get the idea. But the shorts are still hanging in there. Somehow we've been wrong EVERY time, which is not easy to do if you think about it. So perhaps your plan is to see our predictions and then do the opposite?
As for "do most here think it will get back to $1.60?" If we didn't think that, why the heck would we stick around? But will it go below $1 in the meantime, or will we get another reverse split, those are other questions many of us ponder.
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 11, 2019 17:00:20 GMT -5
bigchungus, the other thing we on this board are expert at is predicting when the shorts will exit. Our crystal balls are infallible, just go back through the years of threads to see proof. And i apologize for my obnoxious sarcasm, i'm just punchy having made it to the end of a week. When the stock went from $50 to $30 (pre r/s), seemed reasonable to think shorts might exit. Same when it went from $30 to $20, $20 to $10, $10 to $5, $5 to $1... you get the idea. But the shorts are still hanging in there. Somehow we've been wrong EVERY time, which is not easy to do if you think about it. So perhaps your plan is to see our predictions and then do the opposite? As for "do most here think it will get back to $1.60?" If we didn't think that, why the heck would we stick around? But will it go below $1 in the meantime, or will we get another reverse split, those are other questions many of us ponder. Whoa, you have really been here a long time! I wouldn't stay in to watch it slide that long. I used disciplined rules. I don't stay in stocks for much longer than 6 months, too much missed opportunity on other events. I like to play dilutive bounces. This one was good. OK, I'll set a stop loss at 1.20 and hold on buying more if this one is inherently risky. Thanks for the advice! |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 11, 2019 17:06:13 GMT -5
Dilutive bounces ..love that idea.
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 11, 2019 17:09:29 GMT -5
Glad to help, bigchungus. "Inherently risky" - MNKD? Nah, it's more like "can't miss, we've seen the bottom, nowhere to go but up from here."  |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 11, 2019 17:30:00 GMT -5
Hmmm ... stop loss at $1.20  Okay, good luck with that. Heh Heh Heh Heh ... where's that silly wabbit? |
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 11, 2019 17:37:01 GMT -5
Hmmm ... stop loss at $1.20 Okay, good luck with that. Heh Heh Heh Heh ... where's that silly wabbit? You think I should go higher or lower? I dont want to give back the gains, but I also don't want to get stopped out. |
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Post by liane on Jan 11, 2019 17:45:40 GMT -5
There is a separate forum for MNKD trading strategies - may I suggest you folks take the discussion there?
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Post by galileo on Jan 12, 2019 15:32:05 GMT -5
Shoot galileo, tell us who you are, how you know him, and tell us in detail these facts you say you know about Mike before he was with MNKD and while he has been with MNKD To Liane and other MC Cheerleaders, Y’all asked for more evidence supporting my opinion about Mike Castagna. Fair enough. I’ll share as much as I can but I’m limited. The unflattering picture I have of him is a mosaic composed of disparate bits of information I’ve gathered. It’s not something I’ve hatched because I don’t like the guy. I started from a neutral position, neither pro or con. I’ve not met Mike so I am relying on two broad groupings of information: the opinions of people who’ve worked directly with Mike and actions I’ve seen Mike take during his time at MNKD. I hope you appreciate that negative information is rarely well received by those who are dug in on their position, which is one reason we hear so little of it. Political correctness also stifles it. I’ve spoken to 5 executives who’ve worked with Mike, 3 in former companies and 2 now departed from MNKD. None of them want their names used so these anonymous sources are subject to that criticism. So be it. Dismiss what I write below if you want. All five said very similar things: 1) Mike is ruthlessly political, 2) out for his own good, 3) will stab people in the back-has no loyalty, 4) is only interested in his own ideas or ideas that he can take credit for, 5) surrounds himself with yes men, and 6) is a very good talker. One said upon hearing Mike was made CEO of MNKD said he lost all respect for or interest in the company. The guy said Mike was “not impressive,” and he wondered how a company could be so desperate to make Mike the leader. He questioned whether the MNKD BOD was “asleep at the wheel.” This person is a successful, high-profile businessman who’s held high level executive positions in companies that you’d all recognize instantly. He has no apparent axe to grind. The other two non-MNKD people said mostly the same thing and that Mike was ambitious to a fault. These were people I met randomly so I didn’t seek out the contrary opinions. The two departed MNKD execs told me to look at the turnover since Mike came in. They said good, competent people don’t like working with Mike because he is so obviously calculating and self-absorbed. He is not a team player. One told me Mike privately admitted to him his goal to displace Matt Pfeffer within a month or two of Matt bringing Mike in. He said Mike went right to work on the BOD undermining MP. The other said Mike is a phony who’ll pretend to befriend you but will knife you in the back when it suits him and will step over the body. One commented that Mike’s line is “I’ve never failed with a drug.” I could go on, but you get the point. The actions Mike has taken himself are also revealing. Go back and listen to what Mike says in presentations over the past 18 months. He always sounds like he’s got it all figured out, like success is just months away, and that he and the team are wonderful. He’s never admitted mistakes or failure. He doesn’t mention things that don’t go well. For example, he claims the DTC campaign in Q4-2017 worked well, yet he abandoned it. In the most recent conference call he talked about all the progress in 2018, yet given the huge marketing spend, the script numbers are horrible. Remember, nobody made Mike issue guidance of $25-30 million. He did so because he was confident about exceeding it. He actually delivered about half. Mike implies he brought in Kendall. I happen to know that the company talked to Kendall long before Mike was even on the scene. They had worked on Kendall for a couple years. Yet, Mike lets everyone think it was his idea. Consider the move of HQ. Know what his proffered explanation was? Because MNKD needs to be located there to recruit talent. Well, guess where Mike lives? One executive told me this was all about making Mike’s commute shorter. A good expenditure of company funds? I don’t think so. Now, think about script renewals. Know why you don’t hear that talked about? Because they’re really bad. It’s been a problem from the start. That’s why revenue isn’t building the way one would expect. There’s no evidence that renewals are better following the DTC campaign. I’ve heard from people in a position to know that over 70% of the people who start Afrezza drop it. That’s a problem, yet it goes unmentioned. I was told that Mike has pushed for more executive compensation and less rank and file compensation, contrary to the what Al Mann believed. He’s out to feather his own nest while others suffer. Has anyone else been looking at executive compensation? Has company performance been so good that we need to reward these people the way we do? Do we really believe they deserve bonuses? Don’t you think this company is top heavy? Liane you had a laundry list of “accomplishments” of Mike’s. I can counter each one, but let me deal with only one: the elimination of debt. You cite this as a credit to his leadership, but consider the cost: extreme and continuing dilution. The debt would have been preferable in the context of growing sales. If sales are ramping up one can handle the debt and avoid all the dilution. We shareholders would have kept more of the company. It is only because of the failure of sales that the debt became a problem, and we shareholders have seen our positions eroded. So, do you still think MC “accomplished” something by getting rid of it? He had to because his sales strategy bombed. I’ve talked to two independent investment bankers who’ve examined the recent financings the company has done under Mike: their comments are that the deals are terrible and reek of desperation. They both felt the deals looked like the work of “amateurs.” They say this just turns off other possible partners. MNKD looks like a loser. I’ve talked to lower level of people at MNKD too who are still with the company. Obviously, they’re not going to say anything public, but hey the news is the same. It’s not good people. Honestly, I had a damn hard time finding someone closely associated with Mike who can say anything positive. Isn’t this odd?! I’m sure you’ve all heard enough by now, and diehard cheerleaders won’t be persuaded anyway, so I’ll leave you with this thought: It has been said by others that you want a CEO with integrity, energy and intelligence. But, without the first, the last two will kill you. Don’t say I didn’t tell you. |
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Okay, good luck with that.
