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Post by Clement on Feb 26, 2019 8:26:44 GMT -5
My quick thoughts: year end vs year end the balance sheet is in much better shape. Current ratio is now positive. Meaning there are more current assets (cash & accts receivable) vs current liabilities (amounts due in the next 12 months). Paying down the debt over the last 12 months has reduced year to date interest expense by $4MM -- money that can be better used elsewhere such as in the lab or advertising. Gross profit on Afrezza cogs for the 1st time in the 4th qtr is a milestone. Progress Yes! Gross profit on Afrezza! Progress.
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 26, 2019 8:37:17 GMT -5
SA Update: seekingalpha.com/news/3437076-mannkind-net-loss-improves-q4MannKind net loss improves in Q4 Feb. 26, 2019 8:29 AM ET|About: MannKind Corporation (MNKD)|By: Mamta Mayani, SA News Editor MannKind (MNKD) Q4 results: Revenues: $16M (+255.6%); Commercial product sales: $5.7M (+26.7%); Collaborations and services revenue: $10.3M. Net Loss: ($9.7M) (+70.4%); Loss Per Share: ($0.06) (+78.6%); Quick Assets: $71.2M (+62.2%).
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Post by peppy on Feb 26, 2019 10:11:15 GMT -5
9:15 eastern on CSPAN3 Senate finance hearing on prescription drugs
some drug companies giving pharmacy business managers 75% rebates. can you believe it?
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Post by celo on Feb 26, 2019 12:13:18 GMT -5
From my most likely ignorant and poor understanding of Mannkind's 4Q, Mannkind was able to reduce expenses on manufacturing of the powder to become profitable. So the expectations of future sales and therefore the purchase of insulin has been reduced so that they only make enough Afrezza that they know they will sell? They probably have come to understanding the market and see the percent increase of sales is directly related to the amount of marketing/advertising that is done. The exponential growth in sales hypothesis is finished and the linear growth which is directly proportional to the advertising done is the new theory. Which has proven correct since Mannkind has taken over rights to Afrezza. This then allows them to make the correct purchase amount of insulin and not over purchase which they then have to write off as it expires. Therefore, increasing profitability on the Afrezza sales they do have.
Please correct this where needed.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 26, 2019 12:24:30 GMT -5
It was my understanding that mnkd had to purchase a certain minimum annual amount of insulin from amph, which so far has been way more than what is needed to fill current demand. I think what Mike was referring to was a revision to that agreement to reduce insulin annual purchase commitments/guarantees.
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 26, 2019 12:41:12 GMT -5
Just listened the CC. Everything seems going as planned. Mike mentioned he expected the script to bump up this Friday.
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Post by peppy on Feb 26, 2019 13:03:14 GMT -5
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Post by oldfishtowner on Feb 26, 2019 13:23:08 GMT -5
From my most likely ignorant and poor understanding of Mannkind's 4Q, Mannkind was able to reduce expenses on manufacturing of the powder to become profitable. So the expectations of future sales and therefore the purchase of insulin has been reduced so that they only make enough Afrezza that they know they will sell? They probably have come to understanding the market and see the percent increase of sales is directly related to the amount of marketing/advertising that is done. The exponential growth in sales hypothesis is finished and the linear growth which is directly proportional to the advertising done is the new theory. Which has proven correct since Mannkind has taken over rights to Afrezza. This then allows them to make the correct purchase amount of insulin and not over purchase which they then have to write off as it expires. Therefore, increasing profitability on the Afrezza sales they do have. Please correct this where needed. Exponential growth is not out of the picture, just taking longer than originally expected.
In his discussion of the continued increase in the number of unique prescribers, Castagna remarked that at some point this would have a snowballing effect. I believe that is the exponential growth you are looking for.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 26, 2019 13:28:42 GMT -5
If there are truly 1,700 unique prescribers and only 5,000 or so endos in the US as is my understanding, I wonder how many are endos?
How many truly understand how to use afrezza and will take the time to teach patients and have the patience to do so?
This is where the fb group becomes so important.
I do believe that if success is seen by a majority of patients from these subscribers we may indeed be getting very close to a tipping point with the medical community and will then just need to deal with insurance.
GLTAL’s!
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Post by celo on Feb 26, 2019 13:35:40 GMT -5
From my most likely ignorant and poor understanding of Mannkind's 4Q, Mannkind was able to reduce expenses on manufacturing of the powder to become profitable. So the expectations of future sales and therefore the purchase of insulin has been reduced so that they only make enough Afrezza that they know they will sell? They probably have come to understanding the market and see the percent increase of sales is directly related to the amount of marketing/advertising that is done. The exponential growth in sales hypothesis is finished and the linear growth which is directly proportional to the advertising done is the new theory. Which has proven correct since Mannkind has taken over rights to Afrezza. This then allows them to make the correct purchase amount of insulin and not over purchase which they then have to write off as it expires. Therefore, increasing profitability on the Afrezza sales they do have. Please correct this where needed. Exponential growth is not out of the picture, just taking longer than originally expected.
I his discussion of the continued increase in the number of unique prescribers, Castagna remarked that at some point this would have a snowballing effect. I believe that is the exponential growth you are looking for.
Have they purchased enough insulin for the snowballing effect that may occur? Can Mannkind purchase more if they see a non-linear growth in new users? I believe they have lowered their purchases in inulin to reflect linear growth which is good because that lowers their overall cost. I think the share price is increasing today because MNKD is now showing a more frugal, flexible and possibly in a shorter time frame, profitable way forward.
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Post by peppy on Feb 26, 2019 13:36:02 GMT -5
If there are truly 1,700 unique prescribers and only 5,000 or so endos in the US as is my understanding, I wonder how many are endos? How many truly understand how to use afrezza and will take the time to teach patients and have the patience to do so? This is where the fb group becomes so important. I do believe that if success is seen by a majority of patients from these subscribers we may indeed be getting very close to a tipping point with the medical community and will then just need to deal with insurance. GLTAL’s! All I know is this is my favorite ENDO in the USA! I love 'whack-a-mole.'
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Post by mannmade on Feb 26, 2019 13:41:41 GMT -5
Also figure an average of 250 pwd as patient per (being very conservative as many of the 1,700 may be general practice) if the docs see success and put less than 50% of patients on afrezza, say average of 100 per doc, that is 170,000 pwd using afrezza.
Am citing this as an example only. If I were mnkd, I would devote an extraordinary amount of time and resources on the 1,700 to ensure they are fully educated in afrezza and have no outstanding issues.
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Post by theshiv on Feb 26, 2019 13:45:00 GMT -5
The call this morning was very encouraging with many moving parts. The profit on Afrezza was good to hear. I see a sound plan in place. We may not get everything as quickly as we want, but I still see a solid foundation for the future as long as sales/milestones continue upward.
The future, as indicated today is well beyond Afrezza via the Technosphere platform. It feels like management has a good grasp of what is in front of them.
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Post by xanet on Feb 26, 2019 13:49:11 GMT -5
If there are truly 1,700 unique prescribers and only 5,000 or so endos in the US as is my understanding, I wonder how many are endos? How many truly understand how to use afrezza and will take the time to teach patients and have the patience to do so? This is where the fb group becomes so important. I do believe that if success is seen by a majority of patients from these subscribers we may indeed be getting very close to a tipping point with the medical community and will then just need to deal with insurance. GLTAL’s! Not only are there 1,700 unique writers, but the number of Writers AND TRx/Writer are both increasing predictably at roughly the same rate. That means we are not just seeing more writers, but they like the response they are seeing in their patients. Also, the growth rate is stable, so there is more room to grow; no plateau here!
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Post by tw12 on Feb 26, 2019 13:51:31 GMT -5
Shawn, There are in fact two official ways to pronounce "Afrezza": 1/ "Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah" -- while smiling widely with a skip in your step, to wit: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcxYwwIL5zQ. or 2/ "Thanks forever, Al Mann!"
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