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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 28, 2019 17:17:29 GMT -5
Just looking over some of the comments over the past week and getting an uneasy feeling that something is cooking other than the good results. Points I am considering: - Upgrade from Analyst to 3.00 (ish)
- Some twitterotti spouting off that it would be 2.00 by Friday (and we got very close today)
- Complaints on here by one our group that they had tried to borrow shares but none avail (even though lending rates seem very low suggesting good supply)
- Good results for 2018
- Last round of Warrants now in the money.
Conclusion:
I think once those warrant holders have taken their pound of flesh, that this is going to drop back below the 1.70 range. Think they have about one more chance at playing this thing before the next round of positive announcements start in Q2.
Opinions?
OOG
The last warrant deal was a share and warrant deal, right? A purchase of 26,666,667 shares at $1.5, each coming with a warrant at $1.6. Assuming they want to sell the shares they purchased, and then short more (against the warrants), there could be several more days of volume like yesterday and today. Keep moving the price up so the shares can be unloaded, then short against the warrants. I acknowledge that mine is a simplistic analysis (in that it is not an all or nothing thing ... they can sell some shares, and short against just some of the warrants, depending on their objective and risk tolerance). We'll see what tomorrow holds, but today's action was surprisingly underwhelming to me.
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 28, 2019 18:20:22 GMT -5
The last warrant deal was a share and warrant deal, right? A purchase of 26,666,667 shares at $1.5, each coming with a warrant at $1.6. Assuming they want to sell the shares they purchased, and then short more (against the warrants), there could be several more days of volume like yesterday and today. Keep moving the price up so the shares can be unloaded, then short against the warrants. I acknowledge that mine is a simplistic analysis (in that it is not an all or nothing thing ... they can sell some shares, and short against just some of the warrants, depending on their objective and risk tolerance). We'll see what tomorrow holds, but today's action was surprisingly underwhelming to me. I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire.
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Post by Omega on Feb 28, 2019 19:20:27 GMT -5
We'll see what tomorrow holds, but today's action was surprisingly underwhelming to me. I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire. What's your thoughts on why 1.90 is the top? Or just because the high was 1.91 today?
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 28, 2019 20:23:11 GMT -5
If scripts pop as expected with the March reports, 1.90 will only be seen in the rear view mirror...IMO
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 28, 2019 22:48:20 GMT -5
If scripts pop as expected with the March reports, 1.90 will only be seen in the rear view mirror...IMO That is what we are all anxious to see. What would qualify as a pop in scripts? Trx over 800? Historically share price has been impervious to script count, but at some threshold it has to have an effect. Hope we find out soon.
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 28, 2019 23:20:05 GMT -5
If scripts pop as expected with the March reports, 1.90 will only be seen in the rear view mirror...IMO That is what we are all anxious to see. What would qualify as a pop in scripts? Trx over 800? Historically share price has been impervious to script count, but at some threshold it has to have an effect. Hope we find out soon. Good question. For me, I'll be somewhat disappointed if we aren't above 900 by the end of March which will be reported April 5th. I simply believe social media among diabetics having success with Afrezza is rising and that scripts will follow the TV ads which have run over 1,200 times in the past six weeks.
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Post by traderdennis on Mar 1, 2019 12:31:13 GMT -5
I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire. What's your thoughts on why 1.90 is the top? Or just because the high was 1.91 today? we are in the process of the invisible funding. 27 million shares need to be sold to retail and 14 millions shares could be shorted from the 2.38 warrants. Too much overhead.
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Post by kimi on Mar 12, 2019 13:41:49 GMT -5
TD: "I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire."
Just another false prediction
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 12, 2019 15:10:11 GMT -5
I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire. What's your thoughts on why 1.90 is the top? Or just because the high was 1.91 today? 😎It’s not.
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Post by letitride on Mar 13, 2019 19:53:32 GMT -5
Been down so long forgot what up looks like. A wise man once said poor is permanent but broke can be fixed. Ive heard the short thesis and how the warrants can be used to sell calls and short at will. This all sounds great if the shorts were in control and this poor company is on the way out. But I have a long thesis that this company was never poor just broke. The shorts are not in control and the price will continue to rise and the 40 mill warrants will be absorbed like fuel on the fire that Mike has lit. Afrezza scripts will rise and technosphere will become the mother of many molecules and partnerships because thats what up looks like. Thanks to Al for building it and Mike for lighting it up.
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Post by ryster505 on Mar 13, 2019 19:57:31 GMT -5
Amazing way to put it. Thank you
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2019 21:00:01 GMT -5
TD: "I would guess a trading range of 1.40 to 1.90 until some news breaks. 1.40 goes down the closer we get to 3rd and 4th qtrs. 1.90 top becomes softer after the April 2.38 warrants expire."
Just another false prediction Ha ha ha. Kimi u r awesome!
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 13, 2019 21:38:01 GMT -5
letitride - I agree with most of your post ... except for ... "A wise man once said poor is permanent" . I think maybe a wise guy might have said it ... because neither rich nor poor is permanent. You make it happen either way.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 14, 2019 11:29:51 GMT -5
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Mar 19, 2019 8:58:11 GMT -5
Warrants throttling us from here, or are we just waiting for the next wave of volume?
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