|
Post by paulie on Aug 7, 2014 10:37:39 GMT -5
Thanks Holdem. I willl have to do my DD on that one. I learn more on this board than any other source. Certainly, a stock isn't like a spouse. You can "cheat" on the stock.. just so along as nothing big happens. I just don't want to be out of the money if another big catalyst pops up..
Thanks again to everyone on this board. I am certainly not a pro at this, but it is certainly more intellectually stimulating than worrying about Hollywood or Sports..
|
|
|
Post by mnkd4ever on Aug 7, 2014 10:47:48 GMT -5
The last line is classic!
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Aug 7, 2014 10:48:38 GMT -5
holdem, thanks for sharing those insights. I appreciate it.
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Aug 7, 2014 13:45:07 GMT -5
Thanks Holdem. I will have to do my DD on that one. I learn more on this board than any other source. Certainly, a stock isn't like a spouse. You can "cheat" on the stock.. just so along as nothing big happens. I just don't want to be out of the money if another big catalyst pops up.. Thanks again to everyone on this board. I am certainly not a pro at this, but it is certainly more intellectually stimulating than worrying about Hollywood or Sports.. In the past, I have left plenty on the table, believe me, but I've done pretty well since I dumped my poor performing investment advisor and started doing my own research and picks. These boards are becoming very valuable to me.
Message me, instead of posting, if you want to chat more, so we can keep the thread clean. Good fortune all!
|
|
|
Post by in search of the truth on Nov 24, 2014 17:35:35 GMT -5
I originally posted this thread back on August 6th, and while I still believe in the potential for Afrezza to be a blockbuster drug, I have to admit that it is demoralizing to check it day after day, only to see it get driven further and further down in an attempt to destroy it. It doesn't look like much has changed over the past 3+ months... Why is this one company with an already approved drug being treated so very different than any other of the biotech companies? All that has to happen for them is a rumor that a drug has the potential to cure hepatitis or some exotic disease and the PPS takes off. The rumor doesn't even have to be true to get PPS movement upward! There are so many questions: why won't Mannkind and Sanofi hold a positive press conference to build enthusiasm for the product? They are partners, right? Why did Sanofi spend hours touting their not yet approved drugs with barely a mention of Afrezza and fail to tout the rapid onset and exit of the insulin (mention the efficacy) of the product in their plans? Don't they want their stock price to appreciate? I understand the concept of "low-balling" Wall Street expectations, but the disservice that they are doing to both Sanofi and Mannkind shareholders (not to mention diabetics) is hard to understand. Why not tell us a launch date? Why not tell us the state of TV and print media advertising? Why not tell us that pricing will be comparable to the current insulin pens? Did they buy it to bury it? If not, why act like it? Why did they not have experts there like at the Adcom? Afrezza was available for several studies back in 2012 and 2013. It has been approved since June 27, 2014. Why should it take more than 6 months to get it to market? First Quarter Launch? January 1 or March 31? Why should this be kept a secret? Why not tell the world when to expect it and build demand for it starting tomorrow?
This will be my first and last encounter chasing a biotech stock. I see no significant negatives. It's all upside and very little downside. I can't imagine a better profit to risk profile. I will either win in the long term or lose it all, but I not shell my shares or options to the shorts, except at a high premium. At some point, maybe a light bulb will go off and illuminate the ever elusive reason that would cause 82 million shares to be sold short, but greater minds than mine what tried to figure it out and so far, none have................
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Nov 24, 2014 18:20:29 GMT -5
I originally posted this thread back on August 6th, and while I still believe in the potential for Afrezza to be a blockbuster drug, I have to admit that it is demoralizing to check it day after day, only to see it get driven further and further down in an attempt to destroy it. It doesn't look like much has changed over the past 3+ months... Why is this one company with an already approved drug being treated so very different than any other of the biotech companies? All that has to happen for them is a rumor that a drug has the potential to cure hepatitis or some exotic disease and the PPS takes off. The rumor doesn't even have to be true to get PPS movement upward! There are so many questions: why won't Mannkind and Sanofi hold a positive press conference to build enthusiasm for the product? They are partners, right? Why did Sanofi spend hours touting their not yet approved drugs with barely a mention of Afrezza and fail to tout the rapid onset and exit of the insulin (mention the efficacy) of the product in their plans? Don't they want their stock price to appreciate? I understand the concept of "low-balling" Wall Street expectations, but the disservice that they are doing to both Sanofi and Mannkind shareholders (not to mention diabetics) is hard to understand. Why not tell us a launch date? Why not tell us the state of TV and print media advertising? Why not tell us that pricing will be comparable to the current insulin pens? Did they buy it to bury it? If not, why act like it? Why did they not have experts there like at the Adcom? Afrezza was available for several studies back in 2012 and 2013. It has been approved since June 27, 2014. Why should it take more than 6 months to get it to market? First Quarter Launch? January 1 or March 31? Why should this be kept a secret? Why not tell the world when to expect it and build demand for it starting tomorrow?
This will be my first and last encounter chasing a biotech stock. I see no significant negatives. It's all upside and very little downside. I can't imagine a better profit to risk profile. I will either win in the long term or lose it all, but I not shell my shares or options to the shorts, except at a high premium. At some point, maybe a light bulb will go off and illuminate the ever elusive reason that would cause 82 million shares to be sold short, but greater minds than mine what tried to figure it out and so far, none have................ You are only looking at short term share price as a metric of success. That is human nature I guess. If this is really your first biotech then welcome to biotech but nothing that is now happening is that exceptional. We have a market cap of over 2 billion $ and no possibility of being bought out (the other companies you are alluding to all had possibilities of big buyouts). Nothing scares shorts as much as the possibility of a buyout. We have approval and a really good partnership. I agree that the launch is painfully slow but we expected this pre approval seeing we had no partner and couldn't realistically launch on our own. I don't understand why people think Mannkind would accept or be fooled into making a deal that buries Afrezza? If I know one thing about Mann is that he is no business fool... With 65% of the profits Sanofi has no reason to bury this (which is why I was happy that Mannkind did not strike a 50/50 deal with a smaller less experienced pharma company). From my perspective Afrezza is the only bright spot in the Sanofi diabetic household. Toujeo isn't exactly that special compared to competitors (some of which are already on the market). Afrezza will be one of the ways Sanofi sells Toujeo. Studies on 'holistic diabetic management' will be done using Toujeo and Afrezza. Some better primary and secondary end points (hypos, ER visits because of hypos, ER visits at large, better lower highs, MIs, stroke etc) will be reached using both. Once you establish better outcomes (however defined) with a drug combination (or even a single drug) the competition has to scream 'class effect' to try and get MDs to pay attention to their drugs. MDs usually don't buy that argument though. Competitors have to repeat the studies to prove or at least demonstrate that the class effect is a reasonable assumption. The problem is that this will be impossible to do for other long acting insulins without using Afrezza. Cool no? Mannkind (and Sanofi) win both ways... JPG
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Nov 24, 2014 18:39:26 GMT -5
in search of the truth, On October 14, when MNKD hit an intraday low of $4.45, I actually might have been looking for a little truth that day also. Bu after closing at $4.61 that day, MNKD has performed quite well during the next 29 trading days, to close at $6.16 today. All during this time the shorts were shorting more and the institutions appear to be happily buying their shares. Listen, for a puny biotech company like MNKD, things can't get too much better than they are now. They have FDA approval of their lead drug and have signed a partnership with the best possible company out there to make Afrezza a blockbuster drug. Technosphere technology will give MNKD numerous opportunities to move forward with other IND's. They will certainly have the cash to move in this direction with one or two products next year. One thing is certain, at $6.16, MNKD shares are selling at bargain basement prices. Someone is backing the truck up every day and loading up as the shorts and some whining longs dump more shares. Ashiwi, Rak and Spiro went through this same scenario with KOSP, which fell to $3.00 after FDA approval, only to be bought out for $78. several years later.
Spiro is now saying, if you can't see that incredibly bright light at the end of the tunnel, you should get out of MNKD immediately.
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Nov 24, 2014 19:47:04 GMT -5
"Puny biotech company like MannKind..." is one perspective I've kept in mind since I started investing in this company. I think Al Mann's company has been unfairly held to impossibly high standards by many. Small biotech companies make mistakes since they lack the experience necessary to effectively work with the FDA. They often lack the resources to devote to high end, world class Investor Relations personnel, marketing, drug trials, etc.
MannKind's greatest resources, other than Alfred Mann of course, is the company scientists. Even though it didn't originate internally, what this company has accomplished with Technosphere is a medical marvel and I truly look forward to its many applications.
Perhaps MannKind is a true Warren Buffet scenario: a company that you'd be hard pressed to recognize as having the potential to be a mega-giant 30 years from now. I think this company has that potential, even though today they are a "puny" biotech that is learning as it grows.
I agree with spiro's assessment. If you cannot see the huge potential of this company, even after his kids take over someday, you may as well bail. My very first stock purchase was Apple Computer for $15.87 per share. I sold at $82.73 later on and was very proud of myself.
Nobody really can predict how any market will respond to new scientific achievements because of that factor: they're NEW! Afrezza may or may not set a new standard for diabetes treatment. Other unique drug applications will follow. I certainly don't know what the future has in store, so I place my hopes on the science behind MannKind.
It's what is happening in the back room, rather than the store front window dressing, that interests me. So....... I choose to continue accumulating MNKD shares as MY resources permit.
|
|
|
Post by in search of the truth on Nov 25, 2014 12:44:58 GMT -5
I agree with all of that, but I truly hope that it doesn't take 30 years to achieve mega giant status, as I probably don't have 30 more years left on this earth... But I do feel that it has the potential to be another Regeneron, or to be bought out by someone else within 12 to 24 months.............
|
|