|
Post by agedhippie on Mar 21, 2019 12:40:25 GMT -5
It still may be possible that UTHR bought a piece of the last offering. We have never been told who the strategic investor was that participated in the December deal. As long as it was less than a 5% stake, the buyer doesn't have to disclose. Who knows, maybe they bought 4.99% and then when and if they execute the warrants they will be forced to disclose their ownership stake. The warrants are counted like shares for disclosure purposes if they can be exercised within the next 60 days. The same is true of options and convertible debt. Basically anything that allows you to acquire shares as a right counts. In the example above UTHR would have to disclose because the units were for one share and one full warrant each so 4.99% shares would also give 4.99% warrants and that would require notification.
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Mar 21, 2019 13:13:23 GMT -5
They won’t value us where we should be valued at until Afrezza stops weighing down the boat. Sport Assuming A takes off, are we at 20, 40, 50 with everything else from pipe, UT, RLS, offshore falling into place? If you're looking for someone to give a really high number there are people here that will offer even more than Sports... by offer I mean their dream for share price, not an actual bid price. No reason not to say 200 if we're only dreaming.
|
|
|
Post by mike0475 on Mar 21, 2019 13:17:05 GMT -5
Sport Assuming A takes off, are we at 20, 40, 50 with everything else from pipe, UT, RLS, offshore falling into place? If you're looking for someone to give a really high number there are people here that will offer even more than Sports... by offer I mean their dream for share price, not an actual bid price. No reason not to say 200 if we're only dreaming. If u believe that what I’m asking it’s ok. Nate noted 1000s fold
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Mar 21, 2019 13:45:00 GMT -5
Likewise, there's no reason to speculate something as ridiculously low as $10 unless our heads were buried deep in the sand.
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2019 13:59:39 GMT -5
It is really hard to say or speculate on what mnkd might be worth at some future point in time. At a minimum you would need to know the following:
1. What annual sales for Afrezza at its peak years? 2. How many more TS molecules are licensed and at what royalty and what are sales of such drugs? 3. What TS applications does mnkd take to market on their own and what are sales? 4. How many outstanding shares? 5. Is the company still wholly owned?
You could make some assumptions about the above and create some numbers to model against expenses for such. However if you wish to make assumptions why not just skip to the chase and say in the next 5 years mnkd will have total sales/revenue of 1b for all combined drugs/deals. If you think this is achievable at same share count then 10x would make mnkd a 10b company divided by today’s outstanding shares of 187m would equal approx $53 pps.
I would suggest we will be somewhere between today’s price and $53 per share five years from now. Just my two cents on the back of a napkin.
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Mar 21, 2019 14:27:39 GMT -5
It is really hard to say or speculate on what mnkd might be worth at some future point in time. At a minimum you would need to know the following: 1. What annual sales for Afrezza at its peak years? 2. How many more TS molecules are licensed and at what royalty and what are sales of such drugs? 3. What TS applications does mnkd take to market on their own and what are sales? 4. How many outstanding shares? 5. Is the company still wholly owned? You could make some assumptions about the above and create some numbers to model against expenses for such. However if you wish to make assumptions why not just skip to the chase and say in the next 5 years mnkd will have total sales/revenue of 1b for all combined drugs/deals. If you think this is achievable at same share count then 10x would make mnkd a 10b company divided by today’s outstanding shares of 187m would equal approx $53 pps. I would suggest we will be somewhere between today’s price and $53 per share five years from now. Just my two cents on the back of a napkin. Very good math. I’ll go with that. If no BO before then. $8 right now. If another Pipeline partnership.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2019 15:35:11 GMT -5
It is really hard to say or speculate on what mnkd might be worth at some future point in time. At a minimum you would need to know the following: 1. What annual sales for Afrezza at its peak years? 2. How many more TS molecules are licensed and at what royalty and what are sales of such drugs? 3. What TS applications does mnkd take to market on their own and what are sales? 4. How many outstanding shares? 5. Is the company still wholly owned? You could make some assumptions about the above and create some numbers to model against expenses for such. However if you wish to make assumptions why not just skip to the chase and say in the next 5 years mnkd will have total sales/revenue of 1b for all combined drugs/deals. If you think this is achievable at same share count then 10x would make mnkd a 10b company divided by today’s outstanding shares of 187m would equal approx $53 pps. I would suggest we will be somewhere between today’s price and $53 per share five years from now. Just my two cents on the back of a napkin. Very good math. I’ll go with that. If no BO before then. $8 right now. If another Pipeline partnership. I like the math but not sure if realistic. $1B is a stretch. If MNKD brings in a Co-Promo Partner the Revs will be split. UT Revs wont start until 2021 and we're talking about $40M in 2022 to start. PEDS Revenues will be in the Partner deal. Brazil and India revenues will be small and wont ramp up until 2024. It seems the TS License Model will be a 2-4 year process before Revenues hit the P&L. So I really don't see $1B in Revenues in 5 years.
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2019 15:59:19 GMT -5
Was just a modest middle of the road guesstimate for five years out to provide a basis for a response to the question. Could be $500 and then we are at approximately $26.5 pps. Not looking to predict beyond where we are at this point. Just as I said trying to give a reasonable response to discussion. Thx!
|
|
|
Post by bill on Mar 21, 2019 18:11:39 GMT -5
Very good math. I’ll go with that. If no BO before then. $8 right now. If another Pipeline partnership. I like the math but not sure if realistic. $1B is a stretch. If MNKD brings in a Co-Promo Partner the Revs will be split. UT Revs wont start until 2021 and we're talking about $40M in 2022 to start. PEDS Revenues will be in the Partner deal. Brazil and India revenues will be small and wont ramp up until 2024. It seems the TS License Model will be a 2-4 year process before Revenues hit the P&L. So I really don't see $1B in Revenues in 5 years. @casper6 - Actually, I think $1B is not a stretch but a low ball estimate. Back in the Sanofi days, I believe MNKD's stock price reflected ~$3B and that was before all these new applications started to become real. If we're all guessing, I'd be inclined to vote for a $5B evaluation within 5 years based on UTHR and other partnerships plus dramatically increased Afrezza sales. I suspect the hockey stick increase in Afrezza sales may not happen until it is approved for PWD youths, but after that the sky's the limit.
|
|
|
Post by radgray68 on Mar 21, 2019 19:30:35 GMT -5
I like the math but not sure if realistic. $1B is a stretch. If MNKD brings in a Co-Promo Partner the Revs will be split. UT Revs wont start until 2021 and we're talking about $40M in 2022 to start. PEDS Revenues will be in the Partner deal. Brazil and India revenues will be small and wont ramp up until 2024. It seems the TS License Model will be a 2-4 year process before Revenues hit the P&L. So I really don't see $1B in Revenues in 5 years. @casper6 - Actually, I think $1B is not a stretch but a low ball estimate. Back in the Sanofi days, I believe MNKD's stock price reflected ~$3B and that was before all these new applications started to become real. If we're all guessing, I'd be inclined to vote for a $5B evaluation within 5 years based on UTHR and other partnerships plus dramatically increased Afrezza sales. I suspect the hockey stick increase in Afrezza sales may not happen until it is approved for PWD youths, but after that the sky's the limit. We were at $4 Billion MC around approval. I would expect that again soon if sales keep ramping up. Only now we'll have a pipeline too. I have read estimates of up to $8 Billion to get a drug through to market. It depends on who you read. Wikipedia shows Sanofi averaging $7.9 billion per drug in 2013, for example. We have $3 Billion in sunken costs so far and about $800 million in assets like patents, plant, property and equipment. So $4 billion is the bottom for me. I'm holding out for at least $8 Billion MC before thinking about selling. Sanofi would need to pay me $20 Billion just because the're dicks. IMHO, UTHR is the perfect partner to get us there based on the business they've built and the enthusiasm I hear from those guys. They present very well. I do like the sound of the word "MERGER." Perhaps we become "Mannkind Theraputics" or "United Mannkind"
|
|
q
Newbie
Posts: 1
|
Post by q on Mar 22, 2019 12:55:49 GMT -5
Perhaps we become "Mannkind Theraputics" or "United Mannkind" Mannkind United
|
|
|
Post by mango on Mar 22, 2019 14:16:12 GMT -5
Perhaps we become "Mannkind Theraputics" or "United Mannkind" Mannkind United Best Post of 2019 goes to you my friend.
|
|
|
Post by boytroy88 on Mar 23, 2019 16:35:46 GMT -5
Perhaps we become "Mannkind Theraputics" or "United Mannkind" Mannkind United Sounds like a soccer (football/futbol) team name.
|
|