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Post by morfu on Aug 7, 2019 19:32:55 GMT -5
Hi all, I always wanted to see trends, so I looked up numbers for the last quarters and made this table (no guarantees I copied them correctly).. I also added the numbers from liane´s table from the script counts section (building the difference from 3 months before and also divided he Afrezza net by to get an estimate for the selling overhead) I18 II18 III18 IV18 I19 II19 Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 of which Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10.0 11.5 12.2 13.2 Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 Afrezza gross profit -0.6* -1.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 R&D expenses -2.6 -3.0 2.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 SG&A -15.4 -21.7 -19.4 -18.0 -27.7 -16.6 Interest expense -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 net loss -30.4 -22.7 -24.2 -9.7 -14.9 -12.4 Cash 27.2 53.1 11.0 71.7 59.8 38.2** *Sanofi buyout?? **38.2+75 new credits, 40 (or 25 considering escrow) of this came in Aug19
Hmm one question.. why does the cash disappear faster than the net loss?
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 7, 2019 19:39:28 GMT -5
The trend is our friend
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Post by ktim on Aug 7, 2019 19:48:14 GMT -5
The immediate news is that this is a $40M loan of which $15M must be held in escrow leaving $25M available. The remaining $35M of the loan is dependent on hitting certain targets (and an extra $5M in escrow). Overall certain Afrezza revenue targets must be hit each month to keep the loan open. Mid-Cap have the same lock on the assets that Deerfield did. And warrants. That loan is interesting. It is $75M once all the milestones have been hit. The structure is; - first tranche $40M now - second trance $10M when $30M net Afrezza revenue is hit. This must be achieved before April 2020 so the first quarter is already completed ($6.1M) - third tranche $25M when unspecified TreT revenue targets are hit. This must be achieved before June 2021. - Repayments are monthly starting September 2021 On the plus side the Afrezza revenue targets look fairly safe. For example the August 31 target is $21.5M year to date. I can SO tracking this since they publish the target for each month. Now the not so good: - there are monthly trailing annual Afrezza targets (Minimum Afrezza Net Revenue Schedule) that *must* be hit. - interest rate is a minimum of 8.75% rising if Libor gets above 2% (there is no drop). - $15M in escrow for the initial trance rising to $20M with the subsequent tranches - Warrants issues along side each tranche. For the first tranche there are warrants covering 1.17M shares at $1.12 with a seven year expiry. The strike price and number for the remaining tranche warrants are dependent on the share price, Mid-Cap does better if the price is low. - as with Deerfield Mid-Cap has all assets and IP as security - there is a 6% exit fee based on the maximum borrowed (there is also an early repayment penalty). That's my first cut of the loan agreement. Previously I said: "I wonder how long until our resident tag team of experts begins to poke holes in it?"The answer.... NOT very long. Leave it to you to do your level best to cast negatives on this excellent development and conference call. That was only because someone else posted something that was clearly incorrect. You want total misinformation to reign here simply because it was a good conference call? I suspect that shouldn't be a question, because it appears that is exactly what you want as long as you consider the misinformation useful to your financial position.  For how many days after the conference call should misinformation be given a pass? |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 7, 2019 20:08:28 GMT -5
Amazing that MNKD traded for 4 hours after market close. Last price was at $1.20 up 8 cents from close. So up 12 cents for the day. Wonder what tomorrow brings?
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by alethea on Aug 7, 2019 20:18:41 GMT -5
Previously I said: "I wonder how long until our resident tag team of experts begins to poke holes in it?"The answer.... NOT very long. Leave it to you to do your level best to cast negatives on this excellent development and conference call. That was only because someone else posted something that was clearly incorrect. You want total misinformation to reign here simply because it was a good conference call? I suspect that shouldn't be a question, because it appears that is exactly what you want as long as you consider the misinformation useful to your financial position. For how many days after the conference call should misinformation be given a pass? What was incorrect and what was misinformation? |
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Post by bones1026 on Aug 7, 2019 20:25:45 GMT -5
The immediate news is that this is a $40M loan of which $15M must be held in escrow leaving $25M available. The remaining $35M of the loan is dependent on hitting certain targets (and an extra $5M in escrow). Overall certain Afrezza revenue targets must be hit each month to keep the loan open. Mid-Cap have the same lock on the assets that Deerfield did. And warrants. That loan is interesting. It is $75M once all the milestones have been hit. The structure is; - first tranche $40M now - second trance $10M when $30M net Afrezza revenue is hit. This must be achieved before April 2020 so the first quarter is already completed ($6.1M) - third tranche $25M when unspecified TreT revenue targets are hit. This must be achieved before June 2021. - Repayments are monthly starting September 2021 On the plus side the Afrezza revenue targets look fairly safe. For example the August 31 target is $21.5M year to date. I can SO tracking this since they publish the target for each month. Now the not so good: - there are monthly trailing annual Afrezza targets (Minimum Afrezza Net Revenue Schedule) that *must* be hit. - interest rate is a minimum of 8.75% rising if Libor gets above 2% (there is no drop). - $15M in escrow for the initial trance rising to $20M with the subsequent tranches - Warrants issues along side each tranche. For the first tranche there are warrants covering 1.17M shares at $1.12 with a seven year expiry. The strike price and number for the remaining tranche warrants are dependent on the share price, Mid-Cap does better if the price is low. - as with Deerfield Mid-Cap has all assets and IP as security - there is a 6% exit fee based on the maximum borrowed (there is also an early repayment penalty). That's my first cut of the loan agreement. Previously I said: "I wonder how long until our resident tag team of experts begins to poke holes in it?"The answer.... NOT very long. Leave it to you to do your level best to cast negatives on this excellent development and conference call. Was just thinking the same thing...he’s not invested in the company nor does he use Afrezza as a diabetic, but he had nothing else to do, but spend his Wed afternoon breaking out all the potential negative aspects of our new loan...give me a break For all us longtime investors, let’s hope this is the start of what we have all been waiting for..we deserve it |
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Post by akemp3000 on Aug 7, 2019 20:27:52 GMT -5
Listened to the entire call. The biggest takeaway is no dilution will be needed in the foreseeable future. The many talking heads who all thought it inevitable were just wrong. Time to load up.
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Post by uvula on Aug 7, 2019 20:36:28 GMT -5
Several people are complaining about what aged posted but no one pointed out any factual errors on what aged posted.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2019 20:37:04 GMT -5
Didn't get to hear the call, but liked the slides Peppy posted a link to. The stock price is very good for those who wish to "load up". I am going to add again sometime in the next 2 quarters, but it will be a modest bump of 5% additional shares. After that I'm waiting for success to materialize and will be poised to double my holdings (at a premium) when the threshold I've set for myself is crossed. Good luck to all longs (and maybe a very few shorts).
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2019 20:48:52 GMT -5
Several people are complaining about what aged posted but no one pointed out any factual errors on what aged posted. Even if aged's facts were right, I think it's still OK to be annoyed with his post. 
I think what I got from agedhippie's post was Mannkind may only perform well enough to have borrowed $40M, and the interest will be higher if they do perform poorly.
Meh. OK, and?
Is the other $35M potentially available on good terms a make-or-break proposition? No. So yeah, OK, thanks for the dour analysis of arcane corporate finance information from our resident pump-loving non-Afrezza-using T1. He writes good factual posts that still manage to rain on long suffering longs. I'm not surprised the posts, while good, are not entirely welcome. So be it. I'm confident aged doesn't care and will continue to write them (and I will continue to read them even if they do annoy me too sometimes).
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Post by uvula on Aug 7, 2019 20:55:20 GMT -5
Aged balances out the folks who say that now mnkd is guaranteed to eventually become profitable with no further dilution.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2019 20:58:03 GMT -5
Aged balances out the folks who say that now mnkd is guaranteed to eventually become profitable with no further dilution. Balance he provides yes, but I don't think I saw any posts (today) that said "mnkd is guaranteed to eventually become profitable with no further dilution". Probably because it's all adults who post here (I think). |
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Post by uvula on Aug 7, 2019 21:00:44 GMT -5
Mike C. Said we were now funded until break even. I hope somebody here can break that down. What will scripts need to be at and how long will it be? Did MC say this? |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 7, 2019 21:02:36 GMT -5
Several people are complaining about what aged posted but no one pointed out any factual errors on what aged posted. Aged might get fewer complaints if he would admit that there are both pros and cons when it comes to the MannKind story. He focuses on the cons while ignoring the pros. |
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Post by lifebreath on Aug 7, 2019 21:03:10 GMT -5
Aged balances out the folks who say that now mnkd is guaranteed to eventually become profitable with no further dilution. True he dumps a dose of reality on posters prognostications and most here don’t like reality. |
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