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Post by audiomr on Nov 29, 2019 17:43:32 GMT -5
MNKD always seems to ramp up or have better numbers at the end of the year, and first 10 months are always a let down disappointment. Don't know that I agree. An interesting way of looking at progress is to compare revenue numbers for approximately the same weeks year to year (e.g., 3/9/18 to 3/8/19). I did this for a few pairings for this year and last, and they all showed 50% to more than 100% revenue growth. That's good progress, and if it can be maintained, life will be sweet.
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 29, 2019 17:54:57 GMT -5
A little early to be talking about year end considering there's still warrants, tax sell-offs, scripts, HFM and who knows what else could happen. Just saying.
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Post by ktim on Nov 29, 2019 19:06:05 GMT -5
MNKD always seems to ramp up or have better numbers at the end of the year, and first 10 months are always a let down disappointment. MC is always optimistic and makes everything sound great, I'm sure he believes that. I know I always come away feeling better after he gives his pep talks (what else can you call them?). God knows he has done more for this company than anyone else has, but fact remains the same, investors are the looser's! Everyday I wake up and wish I would have never invested, everyday I wake up and hope something changes that drives the stock up $50.00. I've lost so much with this company, I can't give up now, so everyday I hope MC pulls through and stocks surge. Stocks are at low $1 range, do I buy more, my wife will kill me! MNKD is likely to eventually have significant appreciation, but if you're holding on hopes that it somehow returns to all time split adjusted high share price despite the significant dilution that has occurred, you're likely setting an unrealistic bar guaranteeing you'll be disappointed. A 500% increase from where we are might be in the realm of possibility, but a 4000% gain would seem unrealistic. This is definitely one of those stocks where the past should be set aside in order to make good decisions about the future.
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Post by JEvans on Nov 29, 2019 19:10:12 GMT -5
Not sure what my post was meant to say, just the real situation that I'm in, and I believe a lot of others too. The reality is, is that MC has done a great job on keeping MNKD from sinking, and it's hard to believe for me that the potential for MNKD doesn't = better numbers, better earnings, and better investment payback. I'm a successful man, but having a hard time figuring out how I made such a bad investment w/ all the good that this company has to offer.
But the facts show for themselves in the numbers and that I bought pre rev split didn't help. 2017 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) was 339. Stk price $3.50 2018 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) was 531. Improvement of 56.6%. Stk price $1.06 2019 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) is at 672. Improvement of 26.5%. Stk price $1.20
2017 Average wkly sales (TRx$) was $297,077. 2018 Average wkly sales (TRx$) was $699,667. Improvement of 135.5% 2019 Average wkly sales (TRx$) is at $1,067,531. Improvement of 52.58%
As you can see MNKD scripts and sales are on a downward slope despite everything MC has done and said.
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Post by boytroy88 on Nov 29, 2019 21:04:29 GMT -5
Not sure what my post was meant to say, just the real situation that I'm in, and I believe a lot of others too. The reality is, is that MC has done a great job on keeping MNKD from sinking, and it's hard to believe for me that the potential for MNKD doesn't = better numbers, better earnings, and better investment payback. I'm a successful man, but having a hard time figuring out how I made such a bad investment w/ all the good that this company has to offer. But the facts show for themselves in the numbers and that I bought pre rev split didn't help. 2017 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) was 339. Stk price $3.50 2018 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) was 531. Improvement of 56.6%. Stk price $1.06 2019 Average Wkly Scripts (TRx) is at 672. Improvement of 26.5%. Stk price $1.20 2017 Average wkly sales (TRx$) was $297,077. 2018 Average wkly sales (TRx$) was $699,667. Improvement of 135.5% 2019 Average wkly sales (TRx$) is at $1,067,531. Improvement of 52.58% As you can see MNKD scripts and sales are on a downward slope despite everything MC has done and said. Not a math major but if you are seeing year to year improvements on both scripts and sales there is no logical way you can tell me that both are on a downward slope. You can say that the increase has slowed comparing yoy percentages but the slope is still trending up...just not as much as we like.
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Post by rfogel on Nov 29, 2019 21:20:42 GMT -5
Me on ST ...$MNKD someone posted this: $MNKD I wonder where MNKD is getting the most demographics sales from, it's not people over 65 ..it's to complicated to use and if they have been using a certain application for 15 years, it's hard to change and medicare doesn't cover afrezza. ..MNKD still has several major hurdles to overcome..won't bet the farm on it right now. Vdex has Medicare coverage! They have many T2’s. Someone under Spencer’s article said Vdex does not use insurance ..that’s all they do. Bullish Well, you made me look. I think this is the comment you are referring to: "Indeed, they are not part of any managed care system, so their services are guaranteed NOT covered under any insurance plan, which translates into patients having to pay out of their own pockets, which translates into practically NO patients period." Could it be that insurance covers the cost of an Afrezza prescription for many Vdex patients (perhaps what you are talking about), but not the cost of visiting the clinic (perhaps what the SA commenter is talking about)? That is, does Vdex charge clients a service / visit fee not covered by (many) insurance plans? Google the quote “if you're out of network, you're out of luck" and you'll find articles discussing the topic. As I understand it, to be reimbursed, either the insurer itself has to provide you with a referral to someone outside of the network or else you have to get prior authorization if you desire to go to someone outside of the network. Someone outside of the network can bill an insurer but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll get paid.
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 29, 2019 22:18:32 GMT -5
(X + $1,400,000) x .5 x 52 = $100,000,000 X is what we need to gain in weekly gross sales to break even. It’s a matter of when , not if. I will be here when it happens. Longs don’t need luck
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Post by wgreystone on Nov 29, 2019 23:10:01 GMT -5
Another wasted year. Next year I pin my hope on VDEX to double Afrezza script count.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 30, 2019 0:03:55 GMT -5
(X + $1,400,000) x .5 x 52 = $100,000,000 X is what we need to gain in weekly gross sales to break even. It’s a matter of when , not if. I will be here when it happens. Longs don’t need luck You need to subtract cost of goods and not just rebates and fees. On a good day Afrezza might make a gross profit of $3M this year. Now subtract the cost of sales and marketing from that $3M... Agreed Afrezza can eventually break even, but at the current rate of growth that is years off. Longs don't need luck, but they do need patience
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Post by falconquest on Nov 30, 2019 9:40:01 GMT -5
MNKD always seems to ramp up or have better numbers at the end of the year, and first 10 months are always a let down disappointment. MC is always optimistic and makes everything sound great, I'm sure he believes that. I know I always come away feeling better after he gives his pep talks (what else can you call them?). God knows he has done more for this company than anyone else has, but fact remains the same, investors are the looser's! Everyday I wake up and wish I would have never invested, everyday I wake up and hope something changes that drives the stock up $50.00. I've lost so much with this company, I can't give up now, so everyday I hope MC pulls through and stocks surge. Stocks are at low $1 range, do I buy more, my wife will kill me! Why don't you spend some time researching the company and I promise you you will find your answers. Look at the turnaround that has taken place since Mike has been CEO. Then you will buy more and average down. You waited this long you can wait another 12 months. You wife will be happy in the end. Besides you have lost NOTHING unless you're selling shares. That has been a strategy employed by many. Now what happens when we need a cash raise, Castagna dilutes (once again), the share price is driven below a buck and another reverse is necessary? Yes, this scenario has a low probability but not outside the realm of possibility. Yes scripts and sales are increasing at great rates but when you start so low, those rates are both not surprising (albeit good) and likely not sustainable on a YOY basis.
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Post by mango on Nov 30, 2019 12:25:30 GMT -5
Thanks Rancho....Your comments have nothing to do with the original thread....wow wtf typical I see someone is in dire need of some RLS 😕😶
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 30, 2019 13:08:27 GMT -5
Sounds like falcon has his strings wound too tight. In any case, look at the actual growth numbers in dollars and not percentage rates. Percentages can be very misleading if you are looking at multiple years. A 1,000 percent increase the first year in dollars ... can be very minuscule to a 10 percent increase in dollars in the later years.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by morfu on Nov 30, 2019 15:57:02 GMT -5
MNKD always seems to ramp up or have better numbers at the end of the year, and first 10 months are always a let down disappointment. MC is always optimistic and makes everything sound great, I'm sure he believes that. I know I always come away feeling better after he gives his pep talks (what else can you call them?). God knows he has done more for this company than anyone else has, but fact remains the same, investors are the looser's! Everyday I wake up and wish I would have never invested, everyday I wake up and hope something changes that drives the stock up $50.00. I've lost so much with this company, I can't give up now, so everyday I hope MC pulls through and stocks surge. Stocks are at low $1 range, do I buy more, my wife will kill me! MNKD is likely to eventually have significant appreciation, but if you're holding on hopes that it somehow returns to all time split adjusted high share price despite the significant dilution that has occurred, you're likely setting an unrealistic bar guaranteeing you'll be disappointed. A 500% increase from where we are might be in the realm of possibility, but a 4000% gain would seem unrealistic. This is definitely one of those stocks where the past should be set aside in order to make good decisions about the future. One way to estimate the value of a stock is to look at the prospect of the EPS which will be about -0.05$ this year. If we would see revenue increases in the order of mil25$ per year and a cost factor of 50%, the EPS would increase by 5ct/year. Leading to EPS of 1$/share and maybe share prices north of 100$.. in 20years from now.. (change the numbers at your convenience.. this is just a quick model)
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Post by audiomr on Nov 30, 2019 17:50:13 GMT -5
Sounds like falcon has his strings wound too tight. In any case, look at the actual growth numbers in dollars and not percentage rates. Percentages can be very misleading if you are looking at multiple years. A 1,000 percent increase the first year in dollars ... can be very minuscule to a 10 percent increase in dollars in the later years. Percentages can be useful for analysis because they let you see how revenue increases compound. For example, let's assume that we close out this year with weekly revenue of about $1.5 million and assume 50% year-over-year growth for five years out. We then get $2.25 million, $3.375 million, $5.06 million, $7.6 million, and $11.4 million. Assuming the trend were to continue, that would imply annual sales in the $700-million range for the sixth year. A lot of assumptions there, of course, but not unreasonable ones based on what we've seen this year, IMHO.
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Post by ktim on Nov 30, 2019 18:01:18 GMT -5
Sounds like falcon has his strings wound too tight. In any case, look at the actual growth numbers in dollars and not percentage rates. Percentages can be very misleading if you are looking at multiple years. A 1,000 percent increase the first year in dollars ... can be very minuscule to a 10 percent increase in dollars in the later years. Percentages can be useful for analysis because they let you see how revenue increases compound. For example, let's assume that we close out this year with weekly revenue of about $1.5 million and assume 50% year-over-year growth for five years out. We then get $2.25 million, $3.375 million, $5.06 million, $7.6 million, and $11.4 million. Assuming the trend were to continue, that would imply annual sales in the $700-million range for the sixth year. A lot of assumptions there, of course, but not unreasonable ones based on what we've seen this year, IMHO. Given that scripts have not shown the exponential growth you are assuming, it would seem unreasonable to claim you are basing it on past performance. One can always hope that we transition from linear to exponential growth. Whether hoping for that is something that is reasonable or unreasonable, I wouldn't venture to weigh in on.
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