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Post by kite on Jan 6, 2020 8:02:58 GMT -5
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 6, 2020 11:07:54 GMT -5
This could balance and even flip the typical Q1 fall off with scripts. If there's no longer a fall off in 2020 and Brazil is added, the pps floor could move up nicely.
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Post by ilovekauai on Jan 6, 2020 11:10:13 GMT -5
Nice way to kick off the New Year. Glad to see this!
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Post by ktim on Jan 6, 2020 11:22:35 GMT -5
This could balance and even flip the typical Q1 fall off with scripts. If there's no longer a fall off in 2020 and Brazil is added, the pps floor could move up nicely. Brazil prescriptions won't be reported in Symphony numbers, so that doesn't change the scripts that people are watching. As for revenue from Brazil, if there is any additional in Q1 we wouldn't know about that until the Q1 quarterly call. That would help even out Q1, though I don't think revenue seasonality has a big influence on share price.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jan 6, 2020 11:47:24 GMT -5
Maybe Brazil prescriptions will be reported with Eagle's
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 6, 2020 15:27:39 GMT -5
Was that another container headed to the pier? I didn't buy shares this morning ... Heck I have enough shares already.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 6, 2020 15:42:01 GMT -5
This could balance and even flip the typical Q1 fall off with scripts. If there's no longer a fall off in 2020 and Brazil is added, the pps floor could move up nicely. Brazil prescriptions won't be reported in Symphony numbers, so that doesn't change the scripts that people are watching. As for revenue from Brazil, if there is any additional in Q1 we wouldn't know about that until the Q1 quarterly call. That would help even out Q1, though I don't think revenue seasonality has a big influence on share price. The Q1 call, or revenue seasonality if preferred semantics, could have a very big influence on share price as with all companies.
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Post by ktim on Jan 6, 2020 16:16:55 GMT -5
Brazil prescriptions won't be reported in Symphony numbers, so that doesn't change the scripts that people are watching. As for revenue from Brazil, if there is any additional in Q1 we wouldn't know about that until the Q1 quarterly call. That would help even out Q1, though I don't think revenue seasonality has a big influence on share price. The Q1 call, or revenue seasonality if preferred semantics, could have a very big influence on share price as with all companies. But rarely do expected things have big influence. The seasonality effect (Q4 slightly higher, Q1 down) is known and expected. But, yes, in theory a big up or down movement in revenue could cause large share price change. Just no reason to expect either of those scenarios. I'd say the logical expectation is that the newly agreed upon numbers for tranche 2 of loan are probably what management is realistically expecting (with a bit of protection margin). And who would I be to think I know more than management about what revenue to expect.
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Post by awesomo on Jan 6, 2020 17:23:24 GMT -5
Brazil prescriptions won't be reported in Symphony numbers, so that doesn't change the scripts that people are watching. As for revenue from Brazil, if there is any additional in Q1 we wouldn't know about that until the Q1 quarterly call. That would help even out Q1, though I don't think revenue seasonality has a big influence on share price. The Q1 call, or revenue seasonality if preferred semantics, could have a very big influence on share price as with all companies. Strong guidance has the biggest influence on share price because it signals strength going forward from the management team. Mike doesn't even give guidance, and you wonder why Wall Street "hates" us.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 6, 2020 20:57:25 GMT -5
What is the definition of “strong guidance”? If Dr. Castagna said, “the guidance is a relatively modest trajectory” and Mannkind hit that, you’re saying the strength of the management team hitting that guidance is what will influence a positive trend in the stock price? I do not agree.
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Post by awesomo on Jan 6, 2020 21:12:09 GMT -5
What is the definition of “strong guidance”? If Dr. Castagna said, “the guidance is a relatively modest trajectory” and Mannkind hit that, you’re saying the strength of the management team hitting that guidance is what will influence a positive trend in the stock price? I do not agree. That’s not strong guidance, that’s modest guidance. It would certainly still be better than what is currently happening. Mike put out guidance, missed it by a country mile, then completely pulled guidance (rather than revising it). You can’t have a weaker signal than that.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 7, 2020 1:01:41 GMT -5
Signal, schmignal. What drives stock price on a large scale is supply and demand. Demand increases when company performance increases. And, growth and demand are not unlimited. Ultimately, a mature company must also pay dividends. CEO’s don’t have to say boo about guidance. MNKD isn’t selling where it is because of missed guidance. That horse has been beaten and is decomposed.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 7, 2020 9:58:44 GMT -5
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Post by porkini on Jan 7, 2020 10:13:05 GMT -5
Worth the read. To sum, not giving forward guidance, or pulling back on giving guidance simply indicates a company's lack of confidence in their business plan (my interpretation). To quote the article, "Guidance is nothing more than a marker of a company's willingness to be judged by the business plan to which it's already committed. And since that planning [is] a sunk cost, you might say, the price is right." That is, the expense/effort of generating guidance should largely be complete if a business plan is being followed.
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Post by mango on Jan 7, 2020 10:24:45 GMT -5
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