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Post by mnholdem on Aug 23, 2014 9:43:14 GMT -5
Dr. Mann's inadvertant disclosure about Sanofi having rights to "our new process" has been the topic du jour lately, but I wonder how many folks realize the implications. From browsing discussion boards, I think most believe it pertains to Sanofi being given rights to build/convert their own global plants for the production of Afrezza and perhaps GLP-1.
There has been some, but much, discussion about addition partnerships for other drugs. I don't know Al's vision, but I can visualize MannKind giving rights to Technosphere to many future BP's. Those BP's would absorb 100% of the development costs, with MannKind simply being paid for initial processing of novel drug candidates and the partners taking all other costs of development (i.e. application, trials, etc). This could mean a revenue stream consisting of 100% profit, including licensing fees or upfront payments, royalties, profit-sharing or an entire host of possible deals.
Afrezza is a game changer that has the potential to completely change the diabetes treatment market. Technosphere, however, has the potential to revolutionize the entire drug industry. We've discussed the possible drug applications many times but, solely based upon Al's remark, I can now envision MannKind becoming a multi-billion dollar company.
If my vision of MannKind's future is spot on, I would also envision a potential buyout price that is closer to $100/share than to $30-$50.
Am I totally off my rocker? Do I need meds?
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Post by 1 percenter on Aug 23, 2014 9:53:52 GMT -5
We won't know until Matt gives Al permission to divulge the deal! But if what you write is true and Sanofi is given the "right" to build their own factories employing technoshpere producing equipment, does that mean that MNKD will still make their 35% even though MNKD isn't actually producing the product. If so, that is brilliant. I'd love to earn 35% for doing nothing.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 23, 2014 10:19:33 GMT -5
Love the "Dune" caricature... I just watched it the other night (again).
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 23, 2014 10:41:04 GMT -5
There has been some, but much, discussion about addition partnerships for other drugs. I don't know Al's vision, but I can visualize MannKind giving rights to Technosphere to many future BP's. This one statement is what makes MannKind a HUGE buyout target. What would any pharmaceutical giant pay to own 100% of the rights to a technology that, once fully developed and its safety and efficacy is widely understood, would change an entire industry and become a mammoth global revenue engine? Technosphere represents several multiples in value over Dr. Mann's other game changer, the Minimed insulin pump. The potential applications for Technosphere would be a terrific piece for the AMA Journal and would enlighten thousands of medical professionals and disciplines. Is there a physician or medical researcher on this board who would take up this suggestion? |
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 23, 2014 11:28:02 GMT -5
I seriously doubt that Mannkind will be giving rights to Technosphere to BP. At the ASM, Al said that with any partnership arrangement involving Afrezza, Mannkind would be manufacturing the product. And this turned out to be true. This is obviously to protect the valuable technology and patents from BP's rengineering experts. I believe that any future Technosphere partnership will have the same Mannkind manufacturing requirement. I also believe that even if Sanofi purchase 100% of Afrezza rights, Mannkind would still manufacture the product. It would be like Coca Cola giving away their formulas to the distributors. No way, no how!
Trend
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Post by gamblerjag on Aug 23, 2014 11:46:38 GMT -5
I can see 100 bucks a share (45 billion) for the whole enchilada including Techno... but only if it include techno.. Otherwise still see about 30-40 bucks for just Afrezza... At least the waiting game is much less stressful then the ADCOM then FDA then partner was..
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 23, 2014 12:50:42 GMT -5
I can see 100 bucks a share (45 billion) for the whole enchilada including Techno... but only if it include techno.. Otherwise still see about 30-40 bucks for just Afrezza... At least the waiting game is much less stressful then the ADCOM then FDA then partner was.. So what's your math based on 35/65 split that comes up with 30-40 share price... what's your assumption on sales and P/E? |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 23, 2014 13:19:34 GMT -5
We won't know until Matt gives Al permission to divulge the deal! But if what you write is true and Sanofi is given the "right" to build their own factories employing technoshpere producing equipment, does that mean that MNKD will still make their 35% even though MNKD isn't actually producing the product. If so, that is brilliant. I'd love to earn 35% for doing nothing. Cost of production is paid for out of sales before the 35/65 split, presumably regardless of who/where the product is produced. So the amount of profit MNKD makes would not be affected by a switch to Sanofi doing production. Their revenue would go down but the expenses would be reduced by the same amount. However, this again seems like quite a stretch of an assumption based on Al's comment. I think a lot of people on this board need to purchase one of those Occam's Razors. The straightforward interpretation of what Al said is that they have some improvement to the Technosphere process which Mannkind will use to produce future versions of Afrezza or GLP-1 drug. I wonder, and I think the idea was first posited by someone else, whether the new process has something to do with having a cartridge with more than 8 units worth of insulin. Does anyone know whether there are technical limitations regarding amount of powder within a cartridge that might require the particle formulation to be altered for higher dose cartridges? It strikes me as odd that they didn't have this ready for initial roll out. Obviously a single cartridge is ideal. Needing two puffs might be acceptable to patients. If you start needing to fumble around with 3 or more cartridges, Afrezza might start becoming a less convenient solution vs a pen. |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 23, 2014 14:35:31 GMT -5
I totally agree with your thought about having to use multiple cartridges. On a different post it was explained that the new process eliminates short particles, leaving only longer particles. Given the multi-surface "rosebud" shape of the particles, longer could result in more surfaces on the particle and, therefore, more units of insulin would electrostatically adhere to the same volume of powder. Larger unit cartridges may be planned.
Also, I consider my initial thoughts about MNKD being a buyout target to be separate from the upcoming details about the present deal. Never say never, but I was thinking further down the road for any buyout.
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Post by paradigm on Aug 23, 2014 15:40:12 GMT -5
I figured the "new process" had to do with enhancements to Afrezza. Later in the call after Al's comment, Matt said the following: "... our obligations under the arrangement are somewhat limited other than manufacturing, and some enhancements in the product itself, one of which Al alluded to earlier." I wish they'd just come out and tell us these details instead of having us guess. dreamboatcruise, I believe they plan on having a 12 unit cartridge as well. Here's what Hakan said when asked about it: "The 12-unit basically in regards to the preparation for an sNDA, that's done, that's completed. So, I would say that we're probably talking days maybe weeks, but that will be submitted. So that is well underway and certainly part of our plans going forward." |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 23, 2014 16:43:13 GMT -5
I figured the "new process" had to do with enhancements to Afrezza. Later in the call after Al's comment, Matt said the following: "... our obligations under the arrangement are somewhat limited other than manufacturing, and some enhancements in the product itself, one of which Al alluded to earlier." I wish they'd just come out and tell us these details instead of having us guess. dreamboatcruise, I believe they plan on having a 12 unit cartridge as well. Here's what Hakan said when asked about it: "The 12-unit basically in regards to the preparation for an sNDA, that's done, that's completed. So, I would say that we're probably talking days maybe weeks, but that will be submitted. So that is well underway and certainly part of our plans going forward." I was just trying to think of what "enhancements" might be. Perhaps it is related to higher dose cartridges... 12 unit or possibly even higher? Does anyone know the range of units that are typically used at mealtime? What else might it be... a way of making the powder stable for longer periods without refrigeration? Something that reduces the occurrence of mild cough? |
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Post by paradigm on Aug 23, 2014 17:51:18 GMT -5
I figured the "new process" had to do with enhancements to Afrezza. Later in the call after Al's comment, Matt said the following: "... our obligations under the arrangement are somewhat limited other than manufacturing, and some enhancements in the product itself, one of which Al alluded to earlier." I wish they'd just come out and tell us these details instead of having us guess. dreamboatcruise, I believe they plan on having a 12 unit cartridge as well. Here's what Hakan said when asked about it: "The 12-unit basically in regards to the preparation for an sNDA, that's done, that's completed. So, I would say that we're probably talking days maybe weeks, but that will be submitted. So that is well underway and certainly part of our plans going forward." I was just trying to think of what "enhancements" might be. Perhaps it is related to higher dose cartridges... 12 unit or possibly even higher? Does anyone know the range of units that are typically used at mealtime? What else might it be... a way of making the powder stable for longer periods without refrigeration? Something that reduces the occurrence of mild cough? Applying for the additional dose is nothing new, so I hope that has nothing to do with any enhancements or "new process". My initial thought was improving efficiency and being able to produce the same cartridges with less "powder", reducing costs and maximizing production. My hope is that it has something to do with partnering for GLP-1, but that's just me wanting the technosphere pipeline to expand beyond Afrezza sooner rather than later. |
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