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Post by galt1965 on Aug 29, 2014 10:19:32 GMT -5
Good morning everyone.
I am Long Mannkind and have been so since just over $4.
Currently I own just common shares but I am interested in buying call options. I am planning on staying invested in Mannkind for the long-term (no need for me to sell for a few years).
I am leaning toward Jan 2016 calls as I like the time frame it allows me. I really believe the product and company will do great long-term, just not sure about all this short-term volatility, therefore am more interested in 2016 options.
I would appreciate some advice regarding which Jan 2016 call options to purchase.
I have been following this board for quite some time and really appreciate everyones input and intelligent discourse.
Thank you so much.
Dev
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 29, 2014 10:38:17 GMT -5
You might even consider waiting until Jan 2017 are out. In the money calls start looking more like stock, but limiting your downside if you stick to the same number of shares you would have bought outright rather than using the savings vs shares to buy more of them. Out of the money would be based on your confidence of a meaningful increase by some particular date and can be a way to really leverage a lot of shares.
My main advice however is to not take advice about MNKD options from lizards... they have proven to have a poor track record in this regard. One lizard is holding onto Sept $10 calls... though there is hardly enough left to them to get one's claws into.
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Post by rak5555 on Aug 29, 2014 10:53:19 GMT -5
My strategy has been to carefully construct all the possible events that would move the share price up or down and organize them in date order with probability of outcomes. Then cross reference this timeline on a 2 dimensional matrix with option expiration dates and layer in a 3rd dimension for magnitude of potential impact. All of this has to be done within the context of available funds and risk tolerance. I typically debate all these factors until I reach a mental consensus on the optimum course of action...................and then do the exact opposite.
That being said, I totally agree w/ the lizard and would wait until October for 2017 options.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 29, 2014 11:12:52 GMT -5
My strategy has been to carefully construct all the possible events that would move the share price up or down and organize them in date order with probability of outcomes. Then cross reference this timeline on a 2 dimensional matrix with option expiration dates and layer in a 3rd dimension for magnitude of potential impact. All of this has to be done within the context of available funds and risk tolerance. I typically debate all these factors until I reach a mental consensus on the optimum course of action...................and then do the exact opposite. That being said, I totally agree w/ the lizard and would wait until October for 2017 options. Ever seen a lizard throw a dart blindfolded? |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 29, 2014 11:24:30 GMT -5
I would do the same thing as rak does, except, it's far more efficient to let him do it and then do the exact opposite!
You might consider waiting for the January 17's and sell some Feb 15's to help finance the purchase; if we get bought out before Feb 15, well, then, my bad!
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Post by dstevenson on Aug 29, 2014 11:41:55 GMT -5
Why is everything double posting
Anyways I believe in it and have some leaps
Will buy more once 2017 comes out.
I like out of money call options as there is more upside with the amount of contracts you have.
Do I believe mnkd will be above 11.50 in 15 months? Heck yes I do. I thibk 15 by next year, and once my option is over 100% I'll sell and get my principle back and let the rest ride out
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 29, 2014 11:50:28 GMT -5
Actually, the story of my now expired worthless Aug $10 calls might be useful. I sore off out of money calls when I was burned before by CRL. Then of course I ended up violating that by buying some before the adcom, which paid off. At least there I thought I knew a timeline that couldn't be altered. It would either go up with vote for approval or head to $0 if vote for rejection... and we had the date. I did have shares in addition to options. So I had a mixed track record overall with options on MNKD. The week before the partnership I convinced myself that we definitely were getting a partnership announcement no later than the earnings call. I'm on record here with my argument that there was no way they would buy all that extra insulin right before an earnings call if they didn't have a partnership to announce. I thought this insight was the perfect thing to trade short term out of money calls that I then expected to be very profitable given how little I paid for them. So I got the event dead right... and lost all the money. Moral of the story is even when you get things right about the underlying business, MNKD stock can still deliver a hurting.
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Post by galt1965 on Aug 29, 2014 15:14:10 GMT -5
Thank you all so much for your advice and insight. I appreciate your time and effort. We longs are going to do very well. Grant me patience!
Cheers!
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 29, 2014 18:57:52 GMT -5
Actually, the story of my now expired worthless Aug $10 calls might be useful. I sore off out of money calls when I was burned before by CRL. Then of course I ended up violating that by buying some before the adcom, which paid off. At least there I thought I knew a timeline that couldn't be altered. It would either go up with vote for approval or head to $0 if vote for rejection... and we had the date. I did have shares in addition to options. So I had a mixed track record overall with options on MNKD. The week before the partnership I convinced myself that we definitely were getting a partnership announcement no later than the earnings call. I'm on record here with my argument that there was no way they would buy all that extra insulin right before an earnings call if they didn't have a partnership to announce. I thought this insight was the perfect thing to trade short term out of money calls that I then expected to be very profitable given how little I paid for them. So I got the event dead right... and lost all the money. Moral of the story is even when you get things right about the underlying business, MNKD stock can still deliver a hurting. Ah, the life of a lizard, I see, is not much different than that of lawyer! LOL, nice story, DBC! |
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Post by heyagoodlookin on Aug 30, 2014 15:09:20 GMT -5
"Will buy more once 2017 comes out." Don't wait - if you aren't invested in JAN2016. - 2 cents.
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Post by lfalcon on Aug 30, 2014 23:52:02 GMT -5
First decide how many dollars you want to invest. Then decide what price you think mnkd shares will be Jan 15, 2016. Open the option chain to Jan 2016. Now, for each of the listed strike prices, divide your bid price into the numbers of dollars you will invest. (You have to use the same amount for each strike). This will give you the number of contracts you could purchase for each strike price. Then, subtract the strike from your projected Jan 2016 value to get your pps profit. Multiply this number times the number of contracts and then multiply that answer times 100 to get your dollar profit. One of the listed option chain strikes will have the highest number. Pick that one and put in your order.
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Post by in search of the truth on Sept 25, 2014 14:54:02 GMT -5
I have been surfing the web to see if I can find out when the MNKD January 2017 options will become available. I have heard that they will be available sometime in October of 2015. The decision is: do I buy the Jan 2016 now at the current depressed prices or wait until the 2017s are available and buy some of those, but I 1)don't know how much longer I have to wait or how the 2017 Calls will compare in price to the January 2016 calls
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Post by liane on Sept 25, 2014 15:14:07 GMT -5
The 2017 leaps will be available Mon 10/13. Obviously, the premium will be higher than for the comparable 2016 leaps since you have 1 more year of time. I can't really tell you how much more that will be. My personal opinion (and I'm no expert) is that initially, they are overpriced, and the bid/ask spread is also high as the market tries to assess their worth. There are also a lot of people just waiting for these to come out. You've got plenty of time (2+ years). As long as the underlying stock is not moving through the stratosphere (not likely), just sit back a few weeks or months and let it settle down.
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Post by jpg on Sept 25, 2014 17:00:37 GMT -5
As long as the underlying stock is not moving through the stratosphere (not likely) I knew it: Liane is a basher short pretending to be a long... JPG |
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 25, 2014 21:17:25 GMT -5
Actually, the story of my now expired worthless Aug $10 calls might be useful. I sore off out of money calls when I was burned before by CRL. Then of course I ended up violating that by buying some before the adcom, which paid off. At least there I thought I knew a timeline that couldn't be altered. It would either go up with vote for approval or head to $0 if vote for rejection... and we had the date. I did have shares in addition to options. So I had a mixed track record overall with options on MNKD. The week before the partnership I convinced myself that we definitely were getting a partnership announcement no later than the earnings call. I'm on record here with my argument that there was no way they would buy all that extra insulin right before an earnings call if they didn't have a partnership to announce. I thought this insight was the perfect thing to trade short term out of money calls that I then expected to be very profitable given how little I paid for them. So I got the event dead right... and lost all the money. Moral of the story is even when you get things right about the underlying business, MNKD stock can still deliver a hurting. |
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