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Post by biotec on Sept 21, 2014 17:25:14 GMT -5
I dont agree Q2U. As I said IMOA not much movement until we see a revenue. We need to see a positive flow of money.What more can be said? New technophere drugs way down the line,We already have a partner. What can be said in the short time to move the PPS? We will be going into 2015 a $6 or $5 stock.This is a 5-10 year company to invest in, Not a overnight cash cow.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2014 17:36:19 GMT -5
I dont agree Q2U. As I said IMOA not much movement until we see a revenue. We need to see a positive flow of money.What more can be said? New technophere drugs way down the line,We already have a partner. What can be said in the short time to move the PPS? We will be going into 2015 a $6 or $5 stock.This is a 5-10 year company to invest in, Not a overnight cash cow. Not to pick sides, but I also disagree. You're suggesting that this is a $5 stock and if sales in the beginning aren't "good" that the stock will "go way down". Define poor sales and way down, because it appears you're overly cynical in your comments. Hell, you could be right, but in my opinion in the first quarter or two product will get out the door. To the others about my (continuous) comments about the books and the first quarter or two (which this discussion all goes into it), let me quote Matt from the Morgan Stanley conference "One thing I should point out that nobody is surprised by it, we talked about we transfer goods of cost to Sanofi and that’s essentially true but it may not appear that way for a while. To the extent, we have raw materials on our books already, we’ve expensed those as we purchased them including insulin for example. And we will build to recoup those cost as part of our transfer to them. So -- since those have already been expensed. I’ll show it like we are in margin and lastly we’ll generate some positive cash flow. But once that goes away then it will actually be that cost." So my curiosity is how much cash flow is going to show up early ...
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 21, 2014 18:05:51 GMT -5
I think the challenge is that this has already been a 5-10 year investment for some.
And a multi-year investment on a non-dividend stock to only yield a point or two at best, or worse, a loss, would not qualify IMHO as a good investment! Just a safe one for someone on the short side. And yea - at the moment, seems like it is as cash cow getting milked daily by shorts.
And, I do think the perception of revenue coming - e.g. commitments from insurance companies, distribution, doctors, additional market approvals, responsive production line spin ups - will be far more potent than the actual initial pocketing of the change from quarter to quarter. If SNY says its been 'booked' - I don't think many would truly question them on that front based on their market position in this space?
Of course, you can then always do combinations of both (estimations and collection of revenue), which would be best.
I find the wait more tolerable if I think of it as a wrapped gift - and there will be something **good** inside - not an ugly sweater.
In any case - I suppose we'll all find out one way or another, soon enough.
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Post by jpg on Sept 21, 2014 23:25:11 GMT -5
I don't understand why anyone would sell now at 6$ and change when they could have sold at almost twice that not so long ago. Future prospect of biotech stocks going up are better when they are cheap then when they are expensive...
As to this stock possibly not being 'a 2 or 3 bagger' for a long time: then why hold? If I wasn't convince this stock will do substantially better then 2 or 3 times, I would have sold a while back or probably never have bought in the first place. This obviously doesn't mean I will be right...
As to selling by the end of the month: I don't understand? If the stock goes up you will keep it but if it stays the same or goes down you will sell?
JPG
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Post by biotec on Sept 22, 2014 5:57:31 GMT -5
JPG, Then why hold? I try to make 10% a year. Not 100-200% thats just dreaming.
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Post by jpg on Sept 22, 2014 11:04:02 GMT -5
JPG, Then why hold? I try to make 10% a year. Not 100-200% thats just dreaming. Making 10% a year on a portfolio is one thing but hoping to make 10% a year on Mannkind overall is to me irrational for the risk we take. So far I have been well rewarded (but a bit less every day it seems...) as I bought the vast majority of my shares after the 2nd CRL. If I thought the stock would 'only' go to 20 I would have sold when above 10. I don't know when the stock will rise (or how low it will go in the interim) but from my vantage point Mannkind is as l'ow risk' a biotech stock as you can get. I would sell if I thought the best we can do is a double or triple in 5-10 years though. Being an optimist when the share price gets crushed is harder then when it just keeps on going up but the potential returns are much better starting at now below 6 then at 11. Some like me have been in for well over 5 years but an individuals impatience doesn't make for great counsel as for when to buy or sell. I have another stock like Mannkind which I have held for years and years and bought shares on the dips like Mannkind etc. I finally sold because I thought my original premise for investing was flawed (I took me a few years to sadly come to that conclusion) but not because share price was weak. For some reason people like buying expensive assets and selling cheaper ones? JPG
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