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Post by dt on Sept 24, 2014 5:17:19 GMT -5
Hi All,
I lurk on the various Mannkind message boards but very rarely post. I thought I would chime in with my $.02
I have been invested for 7 years so far. Very stressful, frustrating, nervewracking, etc. I have more shares than I should for my personal situation. Probably at about breakeven at $6 (highest cost $14, lowest $2.5).
But I really believe in the potential. Especially now that we have cleared so many of the worrisome hurdles. At this point if nobody wants Afrezza or if Sanofy turns out to be more focussed on other drugs in its portfolio, than so be it. BUT I am excited about the next six months.
In fact, in some ways the seemingly endless delays in getting to commercial release could in fact be beneficial:
- More time has passed since Exubera. Still a lot of naysayers, but we will have a shot at convincing doctors and patients as I hope the 'fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...' analogy will be less important.
- Publicity/Awareness. For sure there has been a fair amount of publicity and awareness within important circles.
- Social Media. I think this is the biggest advantage. Compared to 4 years ago, social media is so much more prevalent. I am convinced there are a number of people that will demand to try Afrezza. Even if this is a small group (I actually think there will be many), they will be committed to advancing the cause. With social media, their experiences will be on view for the wider world. If negative or neutral, than so be it. BUT if there is a message that comes back along the lines of " my life is better now " , than I do not think we will need to wait 5 years and for $5 billion in sales before the share price reflects the potential.
I think people would begin to see other hurdles/risks as much smaller. For example, I wouldnt minimize the challenges in getting into doctor offices/practices, or in retraining existing diabetics to change their habits, or in increasing production. BUT if the drug works - the rest will follow. I also expect that once we get confirmation that production has commenced and that some of the marketing material Sanofy is using starts to hit the internet, we will get a rise in share price.
I commend Al Mann for getting this far, and I still think he is by far the best advocate for the incredible potential of Afrezza. Nobody else has the vision, courage, etc, to be saying that in his view the FDA tests/approval still misses the boat and there is so much more to achieve.
Cheers and good luck!
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Post by liane on Sept 24, 2014 6:39:34 GMT -5
dt,
Good thoughts, and welcome to the board!
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Post by rockstarrick on Sept 24, 2014 7:23:35 GMT -5
A well thought out post that shows the last hurdle, sales. Shorts are betting that we come in under projections, I am betting that we exceed projections. Our founding father has found the #1 diabetic sales force in the world to launch Afrezza , Sanofi has either 50,000 or 30,000 of the smartest diabetic sales force in the world. These people are in Dr's offices and Pharmacies all over the world every day. Soon the word will be out, Afrezza will be in Pharmacies, PCP's will have flyers to hand out, and the word will travel like wildfire, money is money, Sanofi knows this, if Afrezza sales show even the slightest hint of taking off, Sanofi will be all over this. Great thread friend, good luck RSR
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Post by dt on Sept 24, 2014 7:44:48 GMT -5
Thanks for the welcome, but more thanks for everybody's endless contributions to a better understanding of what is going on!
One other thing I think about a lot is the partner and the deal.
I suspect there weren't other good choices of big pharmas, as Afrezza would have had a less then optimal fit into their product portfolio, or their sales footprint. And others would likely not have the same level of diabetes street cred as Sanofy. Therefore I am very happy with Sanofy as partner.
I don't think we know everything about the deal but my take is that we didn't have a cue of bidders falling over each other trying to outbid like a crazy auction.
I speculate that Al wanted Sanofy and had a clear dialogue with their CEO, and that Al would have been willing to leave percentage points on the table if he knew he could get Sanofy on board and in a way that Afrezza is very important to Sanofy. I also guess that the way the payments were structured offered Sanofy a way of 'saving face' and not risking looking like pfizer/exubera. The way the deal is structured on the surface looks very sensible and positive for Sanofy. I imagine that was important and also something Al would have been happy to offer. From Al's perspective, 150m is enough for the time being and he will feel the rest is easily achievable before it is needed.
Separately, one question I have: I saw a reference that if the convertible notes come due and the stock is below 6.80, then they will likely be redeemed instead of converted. The good news on that would be less dilution than probably we have all been expecting. The bad news would be 100m of cash required. So my question is twofold: are the above facts correct, and if so, would Mannkind get back into a position of needing cash or is our burn rate so low now that we are ok for now?
Cheers!
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 24, 2014 8:21:00 GMT -5
In a recent email to the CFO I noted that he had linked CMC qualification of the production lines. Matt replied in a return email, "Good catch" and explained that he was hinting that several milestone payments will come very quickly.
Once the Sanofi License Agreement and Second Amendment becomes effective, and I believe the effective date will be Oct. 1, many things are going to change.
Al took a few swings at the bears in his interview, but I think we're about to see how a global diabetes giant operates. Sanofi will blow the bear position completely out of the water.
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Post by bradleysbest on Sept 24, 2014 9:03:01 GMT -5
I also believe that Al thinks the milestone payments will be easily achievable! If we reach those miletsones quickly ...... standby!
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Post by mannmade on Sept 24, 2014 9:42:58 GMT -5
I think we first need to know what the milestone trigger events are specifically, as some are related to meeting operational goals and others are related to sales goals. Imoh, I think sales may be slower than many think for a variety of reasons as follows:
1.) Controlled launch to work out the kinks in the system for supply and distribution
2.) Need to educate the insurance companies, medical community and the patient population
3.) Off label use and expanded label is where the real sales growth will occur and that may also take time to develop
However I do believe within 12 to 18 months we will be very happy as longs...
GLTAL's!
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 24, 2014 12:44:11 GMT -5
Say - on the above from DT: "Separately, one question I have: I saw a reference that if the convertible notes come due and the stock is below 6.80, then they will likely be redeemed instead of converted. The good news on that would be less dilution than probably we have all been expecting. The bad news would be 100m of cash required. So my question is twofold: are the above facts correct, and if so, would Mannkind get back into a position of needing cash or is our burn rate so low now that we are ok for now? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1328/thoughts-serial-lurker#ixzz3EFwX8zDn" I thought in the last cc there was a question or comment about this from MNKD that there are no more due bills, so to speak - no more convertibles? I'm afraid all this pps activity from shorts is causing me selective memory loss and dementia .... Or a case of rabies. |
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Post by dt on Sept 24, 2014 12:57:08 GMT -5
I think 6.8 is the conversion price, but it looks like the end date is Aug 2015. Therefore this probably becomes a non issue, as either by then MNKD has received further milestone payments and for some reason the stock is still sub 6.80 (seems pretty unlikely), or if the stock is above 6.80 then we will just get diluted as expected in everybody's assumed future share count. www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1461442&highlight=MannKind Announces Pricing of $100 Million Senior Convertible Notes VALENCIA, Calif., Aug 19, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq: MNKD) today announced the pricing of its previously announced offering of $100 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Convertible Notes due 2015 (the "Notes"). The Notes will be offered and sold to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), by the financial institutions that are the initial purchasers of the notes. MannKind has also granted the initial purchasers of the Notes an option, exercisable up to 13 days after the closing of the offering, to purchase up to an additional $10 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes solely to cover overallotments, if any. MannKind expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to fund the costs of its clinical trials programs and other research and development activities, to expand its manufacturing operations, both on-going and planned, and for general corporate purposes, including working capital. The closing of the Note offering is expected to take place on August 24, 2010. The Notes will bear interest at a fixed rate of 5.75% per year, payable on February 15 and August 15 of each year, beginning February 15, 2011. The Notes will mature on August 15, 2015. Each holder of the Notes may require MannKind to repurchase all or a portion of the holder's Notes if MannKind is involved in certain types of corporate transactions or other events constituting a fundamental change. MannKind may choose to redeem the Notes prior to maturity if the closing price of MannKind's stock has equaled or exceeded 150% of the conversion price for at least 20 of the 30 consecutive trading days ending on the trading day before MannKind issues a redemption notice. If MannKind chooses to redeem any of the Notes prior to maturity, MannKind will also be required to pay a make-whole payment equal to the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of interest on the Notes. The Notes will be general unsecured senior obligations of MannKind. The Notes are convertible, at the option of the holder, at any time on or prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the stated maturity date, into shares of MannKind common stock at a conversion rate of 147.0859 shares per $1,000 principal amount of Notes, which is equal to an approximate conversion price of $6.80 per share. The conversion rate is subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events, including a conversion of the Notes in connection with a fundamental change. |
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Post by rockstarrick on Sept 24, 2014 13:08:16 GMT -5
In a recent email to the CFO I noted that he had linked CMC qualification of the production lines. Matt replied in a return email, "Good catch" and explained that he was hinting that several milestone payments will come very quickly. Once the Sanofi License Agreement and Second Amendment becomes effective, and I believe the effective date will be Oct. 1, many things are going to change. Al took a few swings at the bears in his interview, but I think we're about to see how a global diabetes giant operates. Sanofi will blow the bear position completely out of the water. Good post MN, KEEP 'em coming, every time you post I learn something. RSR |
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Post by lyric14882 on Sept 24, 2014 23:36:32 GMT -5
Welcome! And as a warning don't say anything negative ever or you will be a "bear in disguise"
This board only likes cheerleaders.
Where is spiro?
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 25, 2014 6:34:30 GMT -5
lyric, I see that you've been a member since March. I'd like to know if you have located another message board where members treat each others' viewpoints more respectfully than this board does.
My opinion, FWIW, is that most Pro Board members distinguish the difference between "bearish" posts which explain why share prices are/will be falling and "bashing" which is a post that attacks others' thoughts without offering substantive information.
Your post is an example of a close-ended opinion "don't say anything negative ever or you will be..." yet you offer nothing to substantiate your statement.
I intend this as an observation, not an attack on your viewpoint, as I have appreciated other members correcting me whenever I make a mistake. If you take time to peruse this board you will find plenty of opinions that pps will continue to slide or move sideways until sales figures are known. That would be a bearish sentiment, and valid, but posting that folks would be "idiots" to think otherwise would be disrespectful bashing. There is a difference.
I hope you can recognize that difference and why Pro Boards is an excellent site to air your opinions about MannKind.
Good fortune.
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Post by daduke38 on Sept 26, 2014 10:42:49 GMT -5
Hi All, I lurk on the various Mannkind message boards but very rarely post. I thought I would chime in with my $.02 I have been invested for 7 years so far. Very stressful, frustrating, nervewracking, etc. I have more shares than I should for my personal situation. Probably at about breakeven at $6 (highest cost $14, lowest $2.5). But I really believe in the potential. Especially now that we have cleared so many of the worrisome hurdles. At this point if nobody wants Afrezza or if Sanofy turns out to be more focussed on other drugs in its portfolio, than so be it. BUT I am excited about the next six months. In fact, in some ways the seemingly endless delays in getting to commercial release could in fact be beneficial: - More time has passed since Exubera. Still a lot of naysayers, but we will have a shot at convincing doctors and patients as I hope the 'fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...' analogy will be less important. - Publicity/Awareness. For sure there has been a fair amount of publicity and awareness within important circles. - Social Media. I think this is the biggest advantage. Compared to 4 years ago, social media is so much more prevalent. I am convinced there are a number of people that will demand to try Afrezza. Even if this is a small group (I actually think there will be many), they will be committed to advancing the cause. With social media, their experiences will be on view for the wider world. If negative or neutral, than so be it. BUT if there is a message that comes back along the lines of " my life is better now " , than I do not think we will need to wait 5 years and for $5 billion in sales before the share price reflects the potential. I think people would begin to see other hurdles/risks as much smaller. For example, I wouldnt minimize the challenges in getting into doctor offices/practices, or in retraining existing diabetics to change their habits, or in increasing production. BUT if the drug works - the rest will follow. I also expect that once we get confirmation that production has commenced and that some of the marketing material Sanofy is using starts to hit the internet, we will get a rise in share price. I commend Al Mann for getting this far, and I still think he is by far the best advocate for the incredible potential of Afrezza. Nobody else has the vision, courage, etc, to be saying that in his view the FDA tests/approval still misses the boat and there is so much more to achieve. Cheers and good luck! A very good post! The one part that hit me the most and could be the most under-rated factor is Social Media. If I were diabetic and tried "A" and it works the way I believe it will, it would be on my Facebook page in a heart beat. I do have diabetic friends, but also I guarantee every one I am friends with know someone diabetic. Imagine how fast this could go viral. Multiply 1 diabetic times everyone who will try it, and the world will know about it within weeks. SOCIAL MEDIA - great observation! |
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 26, 2014 12:07:12 GMT -5
daduke38.
Gosh. I've been thinking on this a lot. Keeps me up at night as much as the SP.
I had (some months back) put a suggestion (other forum) that active posters redirect efforts to take a more active hand in influencing SP, rather than spectating and back-seat driving (self included).
If I had more time I'd suggest we start our own Facebook page or what (campaign) called "Investors for diabetics".
Nice benefits to this:
1. Good thing for diabetics.
Raise their awareness of potential life-changing drug (and this assumes we trust both the FDA and MNKD that the trials were solid and drug is safe).
2. Good for MNKD - and hence (hopefully) - MNKD investors.
Raises awareness of both drug, and company. Drive demand - influencing doctors and SNY too. Shift from cult stock - to mainstream cult.
3. Good for market.
Show that investors are not all truly, greedy, evil rat-!@#$%^ - and that it is possible to make money, and do good at same time. And put egg on the face of those that have tried to drive this into ground.
And just think of the fun that could be had with YouTube (e.g. satyre too - "tired of needles trying to scare seniors?" .... )
Anyone like idea, social savvy and got spare time on their hands?
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 27, 2014 13:57:52 GMT -5
Great post! I also bought MNKD for the first time at 19.00. And then went in big time when it was 2.50. The doc's I know just laughed at me all those years ago. Now they are excited!!! There sons are in college working on cars that drive themselves. Times have changed and your right, it's on our side! Social Media I see as huge and instead of it taking years to catch on it will be months! I think we have a blockbuster drug! At the perfect time with the best partner and a CEO that just never gives up!!
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