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Post by daduke38 on Sept 26, 2014 16:24:48 GMT -5
"Pierre Chancel, a senior vice president of Sanofi's diabetes unit, said he does not expect Afrezza to compete with its existing products. Instead, it will be marketed to those patients who are struggling to start insulin because they don't like injections, he said.
"It's going to be a nice complement and upgrade to our portfolio," Chancel told analysts in a conference call.
Just pulled this from another board. It is a quote from the day the deal was announced. Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in the moment, but if this is SNY's maketing plan, it doesn't bode well for sales. What am I missing? And how was that missed?
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 26, 2014 16:39:28 GMT -5
1) Maybe if he said this statement in English, while French his is primary language, then what he was trying to convey didn't come out right. 2) Could we be missing some context to his answer? Maybe he was answering a more specific question and not what he thought of possible users of Afrezza. 3) I think this is always a problem when a company partners and gives way some type of control of a product. It's SNY who drives this train now, not MNKD. 4) Might explain some of the price decline we've seen. 5) I really wish you haven't found this! Watching the price slide, what 40%+, in just over a month was painful enough! Now this!
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Post by daduke38 on Sept 26, 2014 16:47:43 GMT -5
1) Maybe if he said this statement in English, while French his is primary language, then what he was trying to convey didn't come out right. 2) Could we be missing some context to his answer? Maybe he was answering a more specific question and not what he thought of possible users of Afrezza. 3) I think this is always a problem when a company partners and gives way some type of control of a product. It's SNY who drives this train now, not MNKD. 4) Might explain some of the price decline we've seen. 5) I really wish you haven't found this! Watching the price slide, what 40%+, in just over a month was painful enough! Now this! I actually wish I hadn't found it either. I was hoping someone could explain that I am taking this out of context !
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 26, 2014 17:05:27 GMT -5
Remember SNY doesn't have a successful prandial. They are a bit player in that segment.
Whether one can extrapolate from this comment that SNY will not market Afrezza as a replacement for the successful prandials from SNY rivals seems questionable.
Getting patients to switch from a prandial they know how to use to a new one might be a harder battle than aiming marketing dollars at what probably is pent up demand by patients needing insulin but avoiding it.
Hard to know what exactly he meant. However, keep in mind that out of all possible partners it seems alignment of interests and expertise is about as ideal as could have been hoped for with SNY.
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Post by bobw on Sept 26, 2014 17:31:11 GMT -5
"Instead, it will be marketed to those patients who are struggling to start insulin because they don't like injections, he said."
This has always been what I considered the biggest and easiest market for Afrezza; the patients not well controlled with metformin. These patients typically wait years before moving to insulin when they really should start much sooner.
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Post by mnkdd on Sept 26, 2014 17:49:49 GMT -5
I think you're reading too much into this quote.
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 26, 2014 19:12:27 GMT -5
One thing's for sure, Afrezza will be the biggest drug Mannkind has had to date!!!! No refuting that!
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Post by zieg on Sept 26, 2014 19:56:36 GMT -5
He said that, but what we need to remember is that Salespeople are driven by sales.
A new product is money in their pocket.
French companies "especially" are very aggressive when it comes to growth. (I know, I work for one of the largest in the world: L'Oreal).
Year after year, bonuses are based on previous year's numbers and growth vs previous year/Qt. Having a potential flat Qt. or down year is unacceptable in their world.
We are all anxious and excited but may be reading into it too much.
They also may be playing down the launch strategy until all pieces are in place as not to give a heads up to the competition.
There is a great movie w/Clive Owen and Julia Roberts ("Duplicity") having to do w/corporate espionage and the length competitors go to, to find out who is launching what new product and how.
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Post by 4Balance on Sept 26, 2014 23:56:14 GMT -5
"Pierre Chancel, a senior vice president of Sanofi's diabetes unit, said he does not expect Afrezza to compete with its existing products. Instead, it will be marketed to those patients who are struggling to start insulin because they don't like injections, he said. What am I missing? And how was that missed? Several months ago I saw some statistics--perhaps from Brazil--that indicated upwards of 85% of diabetics were not yet on insulin. If that applies to the U.S., that would tell me that--perhaps--we could safely ignore those who are already on a prandial insulin. --4B
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Post by 4Balance on Sept 27, 2014 0:03:49 GMT -5
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Post by 4Balance on Sept 27, 2014 0:19:41 GMT -5
Hmmm...just found an article purporting to quote a report that indicates, worldwide, no more than 13% of diabetics use insulin. "Also from the Novo-Nordisk 2013 annual report: 382 million people with diabetes worldwide Only 45-50 million insulin users" Then it says, "$40 billion Diabetes Care Market (2012) - 50% attributable to insulin." Clearly, insulin is the most expensive treatment. seekingalpha.com/article/2523695-sanofi-vs-mannkind-afrezza-is-better-for-sanofi
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Post by jpg on Sept 27, 2014 1:18:21 GMT -5
I'm not certain why anyone would find the Sanofi comments scary or indicative of future bad sales? These comments by Sanofi and the reaction of investors suggests, to me anyway, that Sanofi knows their patients and MDs while investors not so much maybe?
As far as I am concerned the strategy suggested by Sanofi is the only viable strategy. There is a logarithmic difference in market size (in our favor) by doing as Sanofi is suggesting then by going directly for patients already on prandial insulin. The few relatively rare type 2s on prandials will eventually hear of Afrezza and many will eventually switch on their own. No need to rush for that market. Get those that aren't, but should be on insulin first and the rest will follow. What argument will the reps from Lilly and Novo give against an inhaled product that has, by definition, a completely different label? Is the Lilly sales rep going to say needle phobia is for wimps? Is Novo grep going to say their pens are indicated for needle phobia because you can't really see the needle if you don't look to closely? I and patients would laugh them out of the building... It is hard to be critical of a competitors product that is not directly going after patients already on your product and especially when used with different indications (should be on insulin but prevented from using insulin because of needle phobia). Again who will argue with that?
JPG
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Post by daduke38 on Sept 27, 2014 5:39:51 GMT -5
Thanks for all the thoughts and replies! Really helped. I have a tendency to over analyze at times. Sometimes not a good trait, but sometimes it can be.
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 27, 2014 7:31:51 GMT -5
Controlled launch, but the pre-diabetic market has huge potential and patient results may confirm what Al said in his interview, which can lead to label improvement as well.
Don't forget EU either, not as far away as some think.
Finally, there is a real possibility that Pierre is laying a smokescreen for competitive reasons. If physician demand indicates more than prescribing for pre-D's Sanofi will adjust to demand.
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 27, 2014 8:03:17 GMT -5
Controlled launch, but the pre-diabetic market has huge potential and patient results may confirm what Al said in his interview, which can lead to label improvement as well. Don't forget EU either, not as far away as some think. Finally, there is a real possibility that Pierre is laying a smokescreen for competitive reasons. If physician demand indicates more than prescribing for pre-D's Sanofi will adjust to demand. I've been wondering about the EU submission...I don't believe it's been filed yet and I would expect around a 6 month wait after submission before approval. Plus doesn't SNY have to then go to each country to negotiate pricing? (I thought I read that somewhere). We might see a country like India approving Afrezza before the EU (India usually will follow the FDA's rulings).
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