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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 8:42:56 GMT -5
Why are people stuck on canned boilerplate risk detail that is required to be there?
Why not concentrate on some of the new stuff in the 299 pages, not the stuff that has been regurgitated hundreds of times and is no different.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 11, 2014 10:12:24 GMT -5
I'm rich... based on the info in the 10-Q it is clear that MNKD is worth […***…] per share and that means my […***…] shares are worth […***…]. I'm going to […***…] tonight to celebrate with a […***…]. Keep that […***…] up and we're going to have to redact you (chuckle). Based on what I've read so far, I'd put MannKind's margin between 85%-90%, since Sanofi reimburses COGS and expense related to the 35/65% split are largely development & marketing. I'm a little unclear if Sanofi's payment of COGS is excluded totally from the profit calculation or just from certain developmental activities only. One dissapointment... it seems process development has been excluded from the indirect costs allowable in calculating COGS, even though past equipment and plant costs can be included. It would appear that payback of much of that almost $2B in development of Afrezza will have to wait until acquisition in […***…] but I haven't finished reading it all... twice. (Liane, that would be Schedule B of the Supply Agreement). The JAC will determine which company is responsible for costs related to certain activities, but are some or all of these costs excluded from the expense portion of the 35/65 split? Management (Matt) has previously stated that Sanofi would be bearing most of the expenses in "the early years". I think the idea that the ~$2B spent in development and trials would somehow be reimbursed can only be attributed to very aggressive wishful thinking. I've never seen or heard anything that would make me believe that. Capital costs still embedded in Danury, yes... the rest no. The part about new process development I am reading as new Technosphere development. This may make sense conceptually as the "Afrezza" partnership isn't going to own Technosphere, so anything that has broader applicable and will be exploited by Mannkind beyond Afrezza would make sense for Mannkind to develop on their own dime. Is that perhaps a reasonable interpretation of what it says? BTW... you never want to do too many [...***...] in one night. I need some coffee this morning.
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Post by kc on Nov 11, 2014 11:44:01 GMT -5
CORRECT ON BEING CANNED. Every public company has it in the documents. Any new stock offering has it too. If folks too it literally nobody would buy any new offering or existing companies shares. Its called boiler plate or what if's to avoid the class action attorneys. Why are people stuck on canned boilerplate risk detail that is required to be there? Why not concentrate on some of the new stuff in the 299 pages, not the stuff that has been regurgitated hundreds of times and is no different.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 11, 2014 17:28:00 GMT -5
I agree with the boilerplate being a necessary "evil", although I was glad to hear Al say two things:
1. He didn't think they would have much problem reaching the (redacted) milestones; and, 2. He didn't think Danbury at full capacity would be nearly enough production to meet demand.
I am also glad to hear China mentioned and not just Europe and Japan.
Al seems positively positive about the future.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 11, 2014 18:05:08 GMT -5
"Al seems positively positive about the future." I'm not sure there's been a time when he was not! I wish I could say that about myself, I'm pretty much the opposite.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 11, 2014 18:53:54 GMT -5
Skepticism is the wiser attitude for investors.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 11, 2014 20:17:08 GMT -5
I don't know, mnholdem, a skeptic dies many deaths, an emotional plunger only a singular, spectacular, lose your home, lose your wife, lose your mind one!
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Post by jpg on Nov 11, 2014 23:46:43 GMT -5
"Al seems positively positive about the future." I'm not sure there's been a time when he was not! I wish I could say that about myself, I'm pretty much the opposite. Billionaires tend to need to be optimists (and realists) to become billionaires. Pessimism doesn't make a great risk taking personality trait... JPG
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Post by factspls88 on Nov 12, 2014 15:51:40 GMT -5
Having pulled together a few pro forma new product P&Ls, I can tell you it is not unusual to build a conservative projection and assume that a new product will run in the red for the first few years. Up front investments are heaviest upon introduction.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 12, 2014 18:47:00 GMT -5
jpg..I agree, if you are pessimistic you have already lost! Are you guys coming to the shareholder meeting this spring? We want to get a bunch of people together and surprise Al. MOT2 is helping and will give details later:-). sports
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 13, 2014 11:08:28 GMT -5
jpg..I agree, if you are pessimistic you have already lost! Are you guys coming to the shareholder meeting this spring? We want to get a bunch of people together and surprise Al. MOT2 is helping and will give details later:-). sports Would be interested, but will depend on what happens between now and then. Would be a great way to celebrate ... and need cash to buy the ticket. LOL.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 13, 2014 12:33:52 GMT -5
Are you guys coming to the shareholder meeting this spring? We want to get a bunch of people together and surprise Al. MOT2 is helping and will give details later:-). sports Wouldn't it be cool to actually meet the folks that have been chatting for YEARS about this company?
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 13, 2014 12:42:39 GMT -5
Suebee, don't set your sights too high. I've met several of them, you're not missing all that much (LOL, in case you didn't know it). Now, on the other hand, if Spiro finally shows up, that would be something. He is a complete package of energy, and a clear thinker at his advanced age!
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Post by bradleysbest on Nov 13, 2014 14:21:44 GMT -5
We can all chip in and get a 1 way flight from Siberia to LAX for Spiro!
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Post by jpg on Nov 13, 2014 14:49:02 GMT -5
jpg..I agree, if you are pessimistic you have already lost! Are you guys coming to the shareholder meeting this spring? We want to get a bunch of people together and surprise Al. MOT2 is helping and will give details later:-). sports I doubt I could make it but I certainly would like to at least go to one Mannkind party... When is the meeting? JPG
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