|
|
Post by spiro on Nov 15, 2014 10:21:11 GMT -5
This recent rally in MNKD share price started on November 6, after an unsuccessful short attack where almost 1 million shares were dumped during low volume early morning trading. MNKD's share price plunged to $4.98 quickly, but within minutes recovered most of the loss on much less volume. The share price closed up .04 that day to $5.71 on 6.8 million share volume. During the 6 trading day after Nov. 6, there has been a steady increase in share price up to $6.16 on a rather weak average volume of 3.8 million shares. Historically, low volume days have provided successful opportunities for the shorts to drive the share price down. finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MNKD&a=08&b=28&c=2004&d=10&e=15&f=2014&g=dIMO. this trend trend is being driven by a slow but steady increase in institutional ownership. They are sitting back and slowly accumulating what the hapless shorts are delivering to them. The early third quarter results indicate that institutions have accumulated an additional 5.7 million shares. They now hold 94,842,527 shares. The shorts and their friends simply can not spin this remarkable trend to their advantage. Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity do not join cults. I am looking forward to that day in the near future when institutions control over 150 million shares. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/institutional-holdingsI am little anxious about Nov. 20, too many people are excited the SNY presentation. We shall see. I would much rather be talking about plant capacity. Let's see, MNKD's first 3 production lines can produce 400 million cartridges per year, but each additional 3 lines can produce 500 million cartridges. So during 2016, the plant at full capacity with 12 lines will be cranking out close to 1.9 billion cartridges generating close to $3.6 billion in revenue by the end of 2017. I will let the rest of you speculate on what the share price could be if these calculations materialize. Spiro here |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Nov 15, 2014 11:08:14 GMT -5
Was it Matt or was it Al who made the remark at the earnings call that the Danbury plant would be nowhere near enough to satisfy global demand. The Sanofi board fired CEO Veihmacher because he was planning to cut French production jobs, mostly for generic and low volume drugs he thought Sanofi should sell off. So look for Sanofi's first Afrezza production facility to be built in France or for one of their many production facilities in France to be retrofitted for Afrezza.
On a slight tangent, Sanofi wants to use their insulin. It would not surprise me to see Sanofi acquire Amphastar. The only insulin currently approved for use with Afrezza would become Sanofi's insulin. Plus Amphastar is currently cash-strapped in building their new production facility in China. The Chinese market was also mentioned at the earnings call. I would not be the least bit surprised if Sanofi and Amphastar are in talks. Amphastar excels at producing difficult-to-manufacture drugs, including their own inhalables technology. Their generics are also a threat to Sanofi's market share. Buying out the competition is a proven business strategy and Sanofi has made it clear that M&A is a part of their current business model.
Back on track... I think, spiro, that this upward trend will continue. Even though we should expect pundits to ridicule early sales figures, steady growth will foster market sentiment that risk is diminishing and short interest will diminish in parallel. Volatility and uncertainty is one of several factors has kept short interest high for MNKD. Only two things remain to remove that uncertainty: market acceptance followed by sales growth.
Folks should take a look at the early sales of Lantus - it was paltry - and how Sanofi's marketing and sales force resulted in Lantus becoming #1. That giant pharmaceutical machine will do the same for Afrezza. I have no doubt that after eight quarters of continuous sales growth, the market will have few doubts either.
|
|
|
|
Post by bigmoneytex on Nov 15, 2014 11:21:57 GMT -5
Regarding your comment on sanofi and amphastar, I found articles about how they have been at odds over lovenox for years. I think an acquisition would make a helluva lot of sense for both lovenox and afrezza/insulin supply.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Nov 15, 2014 11:33:55 GMT -5
That's what I was thinking. They are currently fighting in the U.S. Courts over that drug.
|
|
|
|
Post by bigmoneytex on Nov 15, 2014 11:36:11 GMT -5
This recent rally in MNKD share price started on November 6, after an unsuccessful short attack where almost 1 million shares were dumped during low volume early morning trading. MNKD's share price plunged to $4.98 quickly, but within minutes recovered most of the loss on much less volume. The share price closed up .04 that day to $5.71 on 6.8 million share volume. During the 6 trading day after Nov. 6, there has been a steady increase in share price up to $6.16 on a rather weak average volume of 3.8 million shares. Historically, low volume days have provided successful opportunities for the shorts to drive the share price down. finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MNKD&a=08&b=28&c=2004&d=10&e=15&f=2014&g=dIMO. this trend trend is being driven by a slow but steady increase in institutional ownership. They are sitting back and slowly accumulating what the hapless shorts are delivering to them. The early third quarter results indicate that institutions have accumulated an additional 5.7 million shares. They now hold 94,842,527 shares. The shorts and their friends simply can not spin this remarkable trend to their advantage. Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity do not join cults. I am looking forward to that day in the near future when institutions control over 150 million shares. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/institutional-holdingsI am little anxious about Nov. 20, too many people are excited the SNY presentation. We shall see. I would much rather be talking about plant capacity. Let's see, MNKD's first 3 production lines can produce 400 million cartridges per year, but each additional 3 lines can produce 500 million cartridges. So during 2016, the plant at full capacity with 12 lines will be cranking out close to 1.9 billion cartridges generating close to $3.6 billion in revenue by the end of 2017. I will let the rest of you speculate on what the share price could be if these calculations materialize. Spiro here It is pretty amazing that institutional ownership is that high and the shorts are still messing with this stock to make a few bucks. They did a good job on this stock at 10 bucks, but the fact they are still trying to grind this stock lower is some sort of sin or flat out stupidity. After I looked over sanofi's conference call it seems clear to me that they are looking to find a way to counter the loss of revenue from Lantus and while toujeo may pick up the slack, to me at least it seems clear that if they see strong initial sales from Afrezza, they will make a bid for the whole thing. I feel that partnership was a way to hedge against the unlikely outcome of a flop. just my two cents. |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Nov 16, 2014 1:26:12 GMT -5
"They are sitting back and slowly accumulating what the hapless shorts are delivering to them. Surely, you meant "happy shorts." And I'll try not calling you "surely."
All that my optimistic Greek friend from Miami says is reasonable, perhaps even compelling. So what is the short interest doing going up in the past few months? It's a puzzle!
Oh, and Spiro, I just saw the score, hell of a game by your 'canes!! FSU seems to do the same thing game after game, irrespective of who they are playing. But that game had to take a toll on you, that I understand. Hope you sleep well tonight and enjoy the effort put forth!
|
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Nov 16, 2014 11:18:49 GMT -5
Baba, thanks for reminding me about Miami's loss last night, I had completely forgotten about last nights game and the awful 2nd half coaching which resulted in Miami's loss. I may have to put you on ignore if you keep reminding me of negatives.
It sure seems to me that the institutions are outsmarting the shorts. The institutions keep buying shares and then turn around and loan them to the shorts for 17% interest or sell high priced LEAP's which expire worthless. What do the institution know that the shorts don't know? I think the answer is Al Mann and/or high powered research teams. It's also possible that some institutions are getting a little ammo from their relationships with Sanofi. IMO, the impending squeeze on the hapless shorts will be one of Al Mann's most treasured memories. I wouldn't be surprised if this squeeze is triggered by an announcement that Sanofi has taken a 5% stake in MNKD. Also squeezes don't always happen fast, .50 a day for a couple of weeks would look like a squeeze to me. OK, I am probably wrong about all of this, but I can assure you that the shorts are not comfortable with institutional ownership being up 6 million shares last quarter to 94,842,527. BTW Baba, I'm so obsessed with this crap that I actually remembered that number.
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Nov 16, 2014 11:52:47 GMT -5
In the long run, the 'canes performance is a positive, tells me the program is ready to turn around and head north. But sorry for the reminder, not meant to be negative at all.
As far as remembering the short number, well, there are therapists that can help you! .50/day for a couple of weeks? Look like a short squeeze to you? It may well be, but whatever it is, it would look like heaven to me.
As usual, I agree with your reasoning, and your conclusions are not unreasonable at all based on that reasoning.
|
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Nov 18, 2014 11:15:01 GMT -5
Looking like road to heaven today, but still a long way from it.
Board - what's your confidence factor on current price trend - this week?
Are we slowly lifting off now, or is this a set up for OPEX and another short attack?
Word from ST is that it looks like set up with 11/20 and OPEX to help with short catalysts.
|
|
|
|
Post by daduke38 on Nov 18, 2014 11:33:19 GMT -5
Looking like road to heaven today, but still a long way from it. Board - what's your confidence factor on current price trend - this week? Are we slowly lifting off now, or is this a set up for OPEX and another short attack?
Word from ST is that it looks like set up with 11/20 and OPEX to help with short catalysts. Only on this board would I feel safe enough to state I am wondering the same thing. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 18, 2014 11:39:33 GMT -5
Word from ST is that it looks like set up with 11/20 and OPEX to help with short catalysts. Who is this word from? |
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Nov 18, 2014 11:40:45 GMT -5
Looking like road to heaven today, but still a long way from it. Board - what's your confidence factor on current price trend - this week? Are we slowly lifting off now, or is this a set up for OPEX and another short attack?
Word from ST is that it looks like set up with 11/20 and OPEX to help with short catalysts. Only on this board would I feel safe enough to state I am wondering the same thing. Agreed. Well, we can also do combinations. They could scalp a bit down, but the walk up still gradually continues up. |
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Nov 18, 2014 11:41:40 GMT -5
Word from ST is that it looks like set up with 11/20 and OPEX to help with short catalysts. Who is this word from? Truckie. Looking at the puts I believe. |
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Nov 18, 2014 11:44:15 GMT -5
Either way, I'm not selling. The number wouldn't go anywhere near high enough. And there's no number low enough.
Personally, I'm hoping for an uptrend finish so I can take TG week with a smile on my face.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2014 11:51:24 GMT -5
I have been noticing it (Im truckie). Last Friday a large amount of the OI on the $7/$8 puts were bought. Someone dropped about 1mil, and with only 5 days expiration, thats alot of money unless they had some serious conviction it was going to drop. My gut is (and has been) that there is some short thesis being prepped in concert with a bear raid. I'm starting to think thats going to come during the conference itself, or at least on Thursday.
Shrug, just a guess like everyone else. But I felt worth bringing up.
|
|
