I downloaded the entire presentation in pdf format. Here is the link - Afrezza starts on page 55
en.sanofi.com/Images/37650_NMD_Full_pres_20112014_FINAL_sec.pdf
I'm still reading through, but there are some real positives for Afrezza. For example:
Page 14 - Sanofi Has Additional Potentially Transformative Drugs at Earlier Stages of Development. Among the "10 Early Assets to Watch" Sanofi lists GLP-1/GIP co-agonist - Diabetes. We are already aware that the last 10-Q confirmed that Sanofi has secured rights to a Technosphere-delivered GLP-1 from MannKind.
Page 76- Total Addressable U.S. Basal Insulin Market for Toujeo® is ~6m Patients. However, the million existing patients that Sanofi addressed are patients using Lantus® + Levemir® (Novo-Nordisk). As the preferences (below) indicate, surveys reveal that 57% of patients would prefer Afrezza® vs injectable mealtime insulin. 57% of the 5 million existing patients on Lantus+mealtime injections equates to nearly 3 million current patients who would switch from Levemir® to Afrezza®. But Levemir® is not the only mealtime insulin AND Sanofi is only counting patients using prandial injections while on Lantus®. Sanofi's number DO NOT INCLUDE patients that are using prandial injection with a competitor's basal. So the total addressable U.S. Insulin Market for Afrezza® is likely much higher than 3 million.
This does not include pre- and early-T2 patients.
Page 92 - Afrezza® Survey Presentations (they did spell Afrezza correctly on the downloadable presentation).
Preference for Afrezza® vs. Insulin Pen Device (% of patients on 2+ OADs):
- 60% Preference for Afrezza®
- 17% No preference
- 23% Preference for insulin pen device
Preference for Adding Afrezza® vs. Injectable Mealtime Insulins (% of basal patients):
- 57% Preference for Afrezza®
- 32% No preference
- 11% Preference for injectable mealtime insulin
(1) Nielsen DD Quantitative Market Research (T2D patients on 2+OADs, n=77; T2D patients taking basal insulin +/- OADs, n=79 ). Based on exposure to an Afrezza® product profile and a video demonstration (blinded as Product X). Note that these data are patient reported captured in a market research setting and do not necessarily reflect future behavior.
“The product will make it significantly easier to initiate insulin among my uncontrolled oral patients” (% of physicians):
- 60% Agree
- 23% Neither agree or disagree
- 15% Disagree
“I would be comfortable using the product instead of injectable rapid acting insulin for my basal bolus patients” (% of physicians):
- 56% Agree
- 25% Neither agree nor disagree
- 19% Disagree
(1) Nielsen DD Quantitative Market Research (n=583 physicians – PCPs, n=391; ENDOs, n=192. Based on exposure to a clinical Afrezza® product profile and a video demonstration (blinded as Product X). Note that these data are physician reported captured in a market research setting and do not necessarily reflect future behavior.
More reading to do... but I am encouraged for a couple reasons!
First, I did expect Sanofi to downplay Afrezza for at least three reasons:
- Marketing Strategy - don't tip off the competitors that we will be seriously targeting Levemir® (and other competing insulins) patients to switch to Afrezza®.
- Investor Strategy - beating conservative sales estimates is better than not meeting optimistic ones
- Acquisition Strategy - WE (Sanofi) DON'T WANT TO GET ALFRED MANN TOO EXCITED... so let's play it cool. We don't want him to raise the price if we eventually negotiate to buy all rights to Afrezza.
Sanofi did not disappoint me. In fact, they made a better show of Afrezza than I could have hoped for.
Good fortune all!