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Post by savzak on Dec 11, 2014 22:21:23 GMT -5
All of the savzaks (the confident, the doubtful, the smart, the stupid, the optimistic, the pessimistic, the enthusiastic, the enlightened, the confused, etc...) have consulted with each other and come to the consensus conclusion that none of them know what in the hell is going on. They're all hoping for the best but the pessimistic savzak is really struggling with the concept of "hoping". The tired savzak is going to bed soon and taking the rest of the savzaks with him whether they like it or not.
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 11, 2014 22:36:28 GMT -5
Ultimately, we are with the Smart Spiro. We would accept $20b now instead of two hamburgers next quarter.
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vvv
Newbie
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Post by vvv on Dec 11, 2014 22:39:23 GMT -5
"sanofi has rights to future processes" but how Sanofi will get the rights in future Afrezza-tech platform if Sanofi buys only Afrezza from Mannkind? That is the current problem for Mannkind and Sanofi.
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 11, 2014 23:26:52 GMT -5
Maybe this will raise your confidence. This was copied off the cafe pharma board for what it's worth.
Re: More physicians in my territory are asking about Afrezza!
Sny email said Afrezza'd launch on 1/31/15. Afrezza was already on PBM Capital Health, will be on ExpressScript, CVS CareMark formulary early Feb 2015. Cost 2.2K/patient/yr. If no one objects, I assume this is correct. Raise your voice now or forever be in peace.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 23:40:19 GMT -5
I don't buy that crap, at all. No offense im long, but who uses "SNY" as a descriptor for an email they get from whoever inside the company.
I would expect "my boss", a name, "HQ", "the mother ship", and practically anything other than the friggin companies stock ticker lol.
Show me a selfie with the actual email and maybe then I'll buy it
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Post by jpg on Dec 12, 2014 1:16:56 GMT -5
Maybe this will raise your confidence. This was copied off the cafe pharma board for what it's worth. Re: More physicians in my territory are asking about Afrezza! Sny email said Afrezza'd launch on 1/31/15. Afrezza was already on PBM Capital Health, will be on ExpressScript, CVS CareMark formulary early Feb 2015. Cost 2.2K/patient/yr. If no one objects, I assume this is correct. Raise your voice now or forever be in peace. 1/31/15 is a Saturday... Hmmm! For those who trusts Cafe Pharma any more the Sierra World (or whatever) needs to take a deep breath... JPG
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 12, 2014 1:39:24 GMT -5
The "smart Spiro" wrote: "Spiro believes that SNY has a very narrow window of opportunity to steal MNKD for less than $50 per share. "
I've got all my warrants, options and shares sitting on my dashboard, the car is running, the keys are in it and it's parked right outside Sanofi's offices! Please come steal it all for $50/share, and I'll gladly pick up the parking ticket!
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 12, 2014 1:51:41 GMT -5
Maybe this will raise your confidence. This was copied off the cafe pharma board for what it's worth. Re: More physicians in my territory are asking about Afrezza! Sny email said Afrezza'd launch on 1/31/15. Afrezza was already on PBM Capital Health, will be on ExpressScript, CVS CareMark formulary early Feb 2015. Cost 2.2K/patient/yr. If no one objects, I assume this is correct. Raise your voice now or forever be in peace. 1/31/15 is a Saturday... Hmmm! For those who trusts Cafe Pharma any more the Sierra World (or whatever) needs to take a deep breath... JPG A Saturday? Perfect, the competition would never expect that! Frankly, I'll be pleased with a launch in the first quarter, be it Jan 1 or March 31, or anywhere in between (what's that rule about never ending a sentence in a preposition, true enough, but there's an exception for two!). And at that point, I'm very much hoping that just enough people are ready to try this treatment, that it will get the ball rolling - maybe one in 20 of the potential users go ahead and order quickly, after that, the market penetration will be rapid, as pleased users spread the word. If sales don't accelerate quickly after a reasonably decent launch, then perhaps Afrezza doesn't work as well as most every one of us now thinks. I'm not buying that, I think it will work for many diabetics just as well as we envision.
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Post by dt on Dec 12, 2014 4:56:13 GMT -5
i am not sure how to value the Technosphere device, but it probably covers a material part of the current 2.5B valuation of MNKD. i find it hard to believe too much anonymous chatter on the message boards (i still read all of it and need to keep the positive spiro mentality in check!), but i do think that there are more and more doctors and patients discussing afrezza today than 1 year ago, or 6 months ago, or 3 months ago. in fact i think that these discussions are growing daily. go science go. dt ps for those of you familiar with animal house the movie, there is a scene with an angel and a devil debating the merits of taking advantage of a situation. whilst in no way do i condone that scene - in fact i decided not to post a link out of an attempt at decency - i have mental images of spiro dressed as an angel and a devil in my head debating whether to buy even more MNKD!
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Post by papihoyos on Dec 12, 2014 8:04:13 GMT -5
no way SNY pays $20-40B, they already essentially own 65% of Afrezza. MNKD valued is the remaining 35% plus value Technophere. Afrezza alone worth maybe $10B now, who know what it will be worth 4 months from now. The big questions is how much is the Technophere platform worth, an enigma wrapped in a riddle. I'll sell when Al sells and from reading he wants a ten bagger for his investments that would be $25B and I would be delighted.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 12, 2014 17:20:25 GMT -5
mnholdem.. you say that MNKD has given some "flags".. they were also quite literal saying in the last CC.. that this will be a "long" partnership. Sanofi will only acquire Afrezza and GLP-1 but will continue to pay licensing for using Technosphere in their production plants... Hence the long partnership. Aftezza will be the first of many T-drugs that comes down the pipeline, which is why I think Afrezza will go for $16-$18 per share. The evil mnholdem would absolutely love it if shareholders were paid by a dividend and keep their shares in MNKD. This would demolish shorts, who would be required to pay the dividend to the borrower. That would be sweeter than restructuring and a stock split between two legal entities.
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Post by spiro on Dec 12, 2014 18:33:01 GMT -5
I hate to tell you guys this, but there is a 3rd Spiro out there. This is the Screwball Spiro. He will say anything, do anything and buy anything. I sure hope that this isn't the Spiro that bought MNKD, because the Screwball Spiro is never right. This Spiro actually bought 16,000 shares of stock in a salted gold mine for 10 cents a share. It actually went to $3 a share and instead of selling, the Screwball Spiro bought a 1000 more shares. It went to zero before Spiro got his confirmation on that trade. The smart Spiro hasn't spoken to the Screwball Spiro in over 30 years, but he will occasionally speak to the Crazy Spiro.
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Post by nemzter on Dec 12, 2014 18:46:39 GMT -5
1 for 1 stock swap would be my preference for a merger between both entities. SNY stock is cheap at the moment and it would be advantageous to retain MNKD's NOLs to offset future taxes on profits. I think now or within the next 3 months (before the real sales numbers start coming out) would be the best time for this to occur and give us some room for additional growth with SNY stock in the next few years. It would also be nice to get some of that SNY dividend in May too All speculation of course, but would love for this to happen. JMHO
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 12, 2014 19:58:33 GMT -5
Looking at how long it took for MDT and Covidien, I doubt even if they got started now it would be closed out by May ....
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Post by nemzter on Dec 13, 2014 11:31:00 GMT -5
Looking at how long it took for MDT and Covidien, I doubt even if they got started now it would be closed out by May .... Apples vs Oranges, the MDT and Covidien deal had way more obstacles and regulatory scrutinization than what SNY and MNKD would have to go through.
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