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Post by spiro on Dec 13, 2014 12:07:49 GMT -5
I agree with the Crazy Spiro.. Some of you guys wouldn't put the talking frog in your pocket. All three Spiro's would. Spiro wants to know if Babaoriley would kiss the frog.
The Talking Frog I am 73 years old & love to fish.
I was sitting on my dock the other day, when I heard a voice say, 'Pick me up.'
I looked around & couldn't see anyone.
I thought I was dreaming when I heard the voice say again, 'Pick me up.'
I looked in the water & there, floating on the top, was a frog.
I said, 'Are you talking to me?'
The frog said, 'Yes, I'm talking to you. Pick me up then kiss me & I'll turn into the most beautiful woman you have ever seen.'
'I'll make sure that all your friends are envious & jealous because I will be your mistress.'
I looked at the frog for a short time, reached over, picked it up carefully, & placed it in my front pocket.
The frog said to me, 'What are you nuts? Didn't you hear what I said? I said kiss me & I will be your beautiful mistress.'
At that moment I opened my pocket, looked at the frog & said, 'Nah, at my age I'd rather have a talking frog.'
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 13, 2014 12:15:51 GMT -5
Looking at how long it took for MDT and Covidien, I doubt even if they got started now it would be closed out by May .... Apples vs Oranges, the MDT and Covidien deal had way more obstacles and regulatory scrutinization than what SNY and MNKD would have to go through. I guess I don't know the MDT/Covidien deal well enough to know how it would be apples/oranges - other than to say this would be a euro company acquiring a US company, rather than the other way around. That would remove the question of inversion from US, at least. Personally, I like mnholdem's idea. SNY makes and offer on the drugs, and MNKD issues that dividend. I'm not on the legal/finance side, but that would seem to probably just require the company hold a stockholder meeting to vote or such. Probably a lot faster.
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Post by daduke38 on Dec 13, 2014 21:20:07 GMT -5
1 for 1 stock swap would be my preference for a merger between both entities. SNY stock is cheap at the moment and it would be advantageous to retain MNKD's NOLs to offset future taxes on profits. I think now or within the next 3 months (before the real sales numbers start coming out) would be the best time for this to occur and give us some room for additional growth with SNY stock in the next few years. It would also be nice to get some of that SNY dividend in May too All speculation of course, but would love for this to happen. JMHO What seems to get lost in all the discussions is SNY registered 400M shares a year ago this month I believe. Was that number a coincidence? And Why? Just a thought!
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Post by kc on Dec 13, 2014 23:25:51 GMT -5
I'm ready for the PARTY . Spiro are we going to have some great Ouzo to drink. I hope it comes in the 2nd or 3rd qtr. Are we still on for Vegas? Seanismorris, the crazy Spiro thinks that SNY will try to bluff MNKD into a premature deal. SNY is not stupid, even with new leadership they still know that time is not their friend here. It's obvious that Hakan and Matt do not play cards very well and probably haven't noticed that their ace high straight is all spades. Palumbo for sure is clueless. The smart Spiro thinks that Al Mann knows the game and is all in. It's actually not a very hard decision for SNY to make. Spend $20 billion to develop 4 or 5 possible piss ant drugs from scratch or spend $20 billion or so to buyout MNKD and get the slam dunk blockbuster Afrezza and the incredibly promising technospheree platform. The crazy Spiro thinks that $20 billion is way to low, but the smart Spiro would take it, but only within 3 months. After that the new game could have a $40 billion buy in.
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Post by spiro on Dec 14, 2014 10:59:49 GMT -5
Kc, Ouzo at the Wynn or Venetian sounds good to me.
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Post by itrade on Dec 14, 2014 17:46:28 GMT -5
I work at Venetian, so I'll set up the penthouses for the group!
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Post by indigodaisy on Dec 14, 2014 20:11:22 GMT -5
I too live in Vegas, count me in =)
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Post by afrizzle on Dec 15, 2014 14:11:21 GMT -5
I just picked up another 7000 and my position in now full.
I'm a long time horizon investor and it matters not whether we drop a bit or raise a bit. In 2-3 years we'll be laughing at how high a multiple from today we reached
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Post by nemzter on Dec 15, 2014 14:22:19 GMT -5
I work at Venetian, so I'll set up the penthouses for the group! I stayed there this past October, my new favorite hotel. The gambling didn't go so well, but luckily Casino Royale is next door for cheaper bets
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 16, 2014 1:51:34 GMT -5
Hopefully, you won't require cheaper bets by then, nems!!
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Post by tchalaa on Dec 17, 2014 6:59:41 GMT -5
MERRY XMASS, 2015 outlook
Step 1. Market definition (Data from Sanofi Nov.2014 presentation )
# Afrezza potential US-patients <= 3,100,000
Step 2. Customers definition potential US-patients in 2015
# 10% = 310,000 < 3,100,000
# 20% = 620,000 < 3,100,000
# 30% = 930,000 < 3,100,000
# 40% = 1,240,000 < 3,100,000
# 50% = 1,550,000 < 3,100,000
Step 3. Estimated Afrezza Price ( $1800-$2200) per year per patient
Step 4. Estimation using 20% Potential US-Patients
620,000 US-patients X $2000 = $1,240,000,000 per year
$1,240,000,000 x .50 (margins as a percentage) = $620,000,000 profit
$620,000,000 x .35 (MNKDS profit split with Sanofi) = $217,000,000 in profit for MNKD
$217,000,000 X 25 (Price to earning multiple*) = $5,425,000,000 Market Cap
$5,425,000,000 / 405,000,000 out standing shares = $ 13.39 a share **
* Most growing companies have a P/E between 50-100 ** This excludes: the milestones payment from Sanofi the Profit from the Supply agreement (from margin, Afrezza production cost) the others licences agreements on Technosphere
I estimate MNKD with a potential value of $35 Billions
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Post by pmikeks on Dec 17, 2014 12:07:09 GMT -5
When word gets out that you can control blood sugar levels without getting stuck with a needle, I think there will be substantially more then 620,000 using Afrezza. Think that may be a good guess of converts from current pens like Lantus but there are millions who should be on insulin that refuse to take it because they hate needles. I was one of those for years and finally started on Lantus couple years ago. Would have started lot sooner if I could have inhaled it. In the not to distant future we can all quit speculating about where we are going, we will be there.
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Post by spiro on Dec 17, 2014 18:03:20 GMT -5
For those interested, take a look at one of MNKD's old competitors Generex Biotech (GNBT). They were trying to develop an oral insulin. Ouch finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gnbt&ql=1
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Post by brentie on Dec 17, 2014 19:02:39 GMT -5
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Post by jpg on Dec 17, 2014 23:50:05 GMT -5
For those interested, take a look at one of MNKD's old competitors Generex Biotech (GNBT). They were trying to develop an oral insulin. Ouch finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gnbt&ql=1Having talked to Generex mngmt at an investment conference and looked at their 'science' closely I used to wondered if that company wasn't simply one big fraud who's only purpose was to keep big paychecks coming. They also had a way of always finding the thing of the week to start work on but never seemed to actually move anything forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't working on Ebola right now... JPG
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