Dec 19 Puts

[Deleted]

yikes, just noticed that someone bought over 1000 $7 puts that expire Friday for $1.92. They need about $5.02 or lower to break even.

That's a huge bearish bet with only a few days before expiry.

Just a heads up for those interested. May be some indication of a big push lower by then.

[Deleted]

Upon further review I see someone also bought 1000 $7 jan puts for $2.00 too, along with 500 $10 jan puts for $5.00.

Seems like the line in the sand is looking to be January/February and we could be in for another 4-8 weeks of pain.

Thoughts?

[chicagpete]

Ugh... Feel like a sheep being walked to the
slaughter house

[jpg]

It's simple really. If you are certain this is going lower or feel like a sheep being walked to the slaughter house: sell and buy back when you think we have hit bottom.
I certainly don't have the skill (or luck) to do that though.

Nothing except the share price has changed. The drug isn't any less effective or desirable. The partnership is the same. The revenue split is the same.

JPG

[dreamboatcruise]

Dec 17, 2014 0:33:28 GMT -5 jpg said:

Nothing except the share price has changed. The drug isn't any less effective or desirable. The partnership is the same. The revenue split is the same.

Patients are NEVER going to want to use a drug from a company with sub $5 share price.  That's the first thing I ask my doctor about. 

[ashiwi]

To me it looks like the Dec PUTS were bought to close them out (having previously been sold).
They rolled them into Jan PUTS which were sold. It's a bullish bet that the pps will be more than $7 in Jan.

[babaoriley]

Dec 17, 2014 4:20:59 GMT -5 ashiwi said:

To me it looks like the Dec PUTS were bought to close them out (having previously been sold).
They rolled them into Jan PUTS which were sold. It's a bullish bet that the pps will be more than $7 in Jan.

Spoken like one of those there fancy option traders, ashiwi!  I see you perched high above Wall Street, like a falcon, ready to swoop in on the pigeons hundreds of feet below.

[ashiwi]

Thanks Baba, of course there is always the disclaimer that I could be 100% wrong.
Selling PUTS has become by biggest obsession and addiction.

[bighaus89]

Thanks for the insight ashiwi.

I think a lot of the trading for the next month or two will be white noise, trying to realize short term profits, until we actually start seeing sales. I imagine trading will look pretty volatile right before the Q1 10Q comes out.

[Deleted]

Dec 17, 2014 12:16:51 GMT -5 bighaus89 said:

Thanks for the insight ashiwi.

I think a lot of the trading for the next month or two will be white noise, trying to realize short term profits, until we actually start seeing sales. I imagine trading will look pretty volatile right before the Q1 10Q comes out.

The usual market is "buy the rumor, sell the news".  I suppose that means we are now buying the rumor.  When earnings are announced,  we will sell the news.
My problem is, I'm a long !!

[babaoriley]

Dec 17, 2014 11:14:20 GMT -5 ashiwi said:

Thanks Baba, of course there is always the disclaimer that I could be 100% wrong.
Selling PUTS has become by biggest obsession and addiction.

I'll tell you one thing, Ashiwi, selling puts in MNKD, while great, is nothing like selling them back in 2008-2010 - the premiums during that period were unbelievable on almost every stock.  MNKD's were somewhat better, but almost all stocks had ridiculous premiums due to the fear in the market.  I began doing that in mid-2008, when a friend of mine, who had must inherited 14,000 shares of XOM, told me he had sold 140 covered calls against the stock, which was then selling for, say, $58.  He was able to sell $60 strike, a month out for .........................  $2.00!  He got $28,000 and I couldn't believe my ears.  Now check out what a blue chip stock might bring you with similar parameters - maybe a quarter!

By mid to late 2010, the premiums really started to drop.  Couldn't last forever, and I took decent advantage, but of course, like everything else, in hindsight...

[cretin11]

Dec 17, 2014 16:17:09 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

Dec 17, 2014 11:14:20 GMT -5 ashiwi said:

Thanks Baba, of course there is always the disclaimer that I could be 100% wrong.
Selling PUTS has become by biggest obsession and addiction.

I'll tell you one thing, Ashiwi, selling puts in MNKD, while great, is nothing like selling them back in 2008-2010 - the premiums during that period were unbelievable on almost every stock.  MNKD's were somewhat better, but almost all stocks had ridiculous premiums due to the fear in the market.  I began doing that in mid-2008, when a friend of mine, who had must inherited 14,000 shares of XOM, told me he had sold 140 covered calls against the stock, which was then selling for, say, $58.  He was able to sell $60 strike, a month out for .........................  $2.00!  He got $28,000 and I couldn't believe my ears.  Now check out what a blue chip stock might bring you with similar parameters - maybe a quarter!

By mid to late 2010, the premiums really started to drop.  Couldn't last forever, and I took decent advantage, but of course, like everything else, in hindsight...

Yeah, i got started selling puts in 2010 and premiums were so much better then.  As volatility lessened and premiums became more anemic, i started chasing the bigger premiums.  That led me to biotechs, for better (sometimes) or worse (other times).  CHTP was a wild ride.  I've now been called into so many shares of MNKD all from selling puts, and have sold many more going out to 2017.  So far hasn't been a good play, though the premiums have eased the pain to a large extent.

Ashiwi thanks for weighing in with your interpretation of those recent transactions, and thanks fugacity for initially posting about it.