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Post by mannmade on Dec 18, 2014 13:54:11 GMT -5
So I have to ask? Is this the beginning of real short covering? I would enjoy hearing from anyone who has a thought or two on the subject. I am prompted to ask this question for the following reasons:
1.) Tax Loss selling should be done by this point
2.) Yesterday's volume and share price increase with no news
3.) Today's Volume and share price increase with no news
4.) Last short report although two weeks plus saw almost 3m short shares down
5.) Launch is 45 days or so away...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2014 14:32:35 GMT -5
I guess I'd be looking for movement on a day the overall market isn't rocketing up. Can't yet tell whether the Dreamboat is being floated by the tide, or if the engines are full throttle and the hydrofoils are about to kick in.
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Post by kc on Dec 18, 2014 15:31:03 GMT -5
My vote is on # 1. 1.) Tax Loss selling should be done by this point
Buying for the future has begun.
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 18, 2014 22:22:54 GMT -5
I'm thinking its following the market. Though I will say that it seems as though on market down days, short capitalize on it and percentage decrease is above average. Today, seems like increase was on par with some other companies.
I hope buying for future has begun, but I would expect to see percentage increase be above others, and continue for more than a couple days, and not be followed by that all-to-predictable flash crash.
Here's to hope. Qapla' !
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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2014 17:28:25 GMT -5
Wow! something is up. have you seen the AH trading today? Big blocks have moved.
2,071,841 shares traded? What happened?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2014 18:14:48 GMT -5
Yeah, odd AH. Huge blocks basically at close price and now run up over 5% on much smaller volume.
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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2014 18:28:46 GMT -5
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 19, 2014 18:39:12 GMT -5
The bulk of after hour shares have traded at 5.36. Volume probably has something to do with options expiration, triple witching and short covering.
Fidelity has returned some of my borrowed shares this week and lowered the interest to 10.5%. It's just an indication that there is less demand to borrow and short shares.
Hopefully we have seen the peak of the short interest and it's all down from here.
It doesn't mean that we still won't see more short attacks and flash crashes, but the launch and a big PR push are just weeks away.
Low volume with the next 2 holiday weeks might allow some opportunity for shorts to attack and cover, but their days are numbered.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2014 18:44:12 GMT -5
I add to my original list of reasons above for asking the question about whethere shorts are finally beginning to cover for real... Call it item 3b from my original list: Volume was over 10m shares today, again on no news...
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 19, 2014 19:03:45 GMT -5
mannmade, you've been laying pretty low lately, hope that's cuz you're busy and making boatloads of cash! I've been really busy with lawyer work for the past three or so months, it does help, especially over those periods like September through the middle of October and the first two weeks of this month. The last three days have been good to me, but far from getting even from end of November. I guess I found out the hard way just how much exposure to energy I have!!!
The biotech move the last three days has been breathtaking!
Hoping this afterhours stuff is going to be good for us come Monday.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2014 20:39:46 GMT -5
Hey Baba, yes I have... Was getting a bit burned out for first time in about six years of following this and just thought not much really going to happen until about end of year... Have been spending a lot of time with work and with my son. Yes looks like Bio tech will make for a very happy holidays season!!!
What do yo make of all the volume this past week, last 3 days, especially today? Speaking of energy likely a good time to buy some... but more importantly save your energy for all the partying you are going to do this year when Mankind is finally launched! Keep the faith my friend...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2014 20:46:35 GMT -5
Today a lot of put options expired. Was what we saw after hours a combination of exercised put options and the. Subsequent covering?
If so, then the response on Monday is going to be interesting, because in jan/feb there is roughly 10x the amount of put options expiring
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Post by mannmade on Dec 30, 2014 15:46:45 GMT -5
Well even with the last couple of down days it has not been as bad as I might have expected... Although I suppose there is still time for the shorts to push back harder with a flash crash or two... Just by virtue of their shear numbers...
But with short interest down 1m or so as of the last published listing for 12.15, I have to believe the next posting will show a bit more as on 12.15 the stock was at about 5.10 or so at it's low, and as of today we are quite a bit higher with some pretty strong volume (9m and 10 M on a few days during the last two weeks) even though we are a bit off the recent highs.
And with Friday comes the start of a new year, January 2, 2015... which means the end of year end tax loss selling etc... and also 20 trading days until launch (assuming it is Monday, February 2, 2015) Seems like the run up to launch should be beginning sometime soon...
With launch fast approaching, I am thinking the numbers are really in our (the Longs) favor if you look at them, even very conservatively, as follows:
1.) For 2015, one operational line for 12 months and two additional operational lines for 6 months each as of June 30th. Annual capacity for each line is about 167,000 patients if I recall correctly (and please correct me if I am wrong)
2.) Let's say pricing is $2,000 per patient or $2,000 x 334,000 (One line for full 12 months at 167,000 and two lines at 6 months 83,500 each) equals $668,000,000 (This does not account for the two months of production stockpiled from starting production in November 2014)
3.) Deduct .30% of COGS which equals $467,600,000
4.) As we all know Mannkind's share is .35 which equals 163,660,000
5.) Apply a multiplier of 20 to 163,660,000 and that equals 3.27B in valuation. At a 15 multiple we are at 2.45B valuation which is still higher than today's current valuation of about 2.2B
6.) Then let's add the 150m that Mankind has already earned but not yet classified as income and the additional 75m in production milestones that they will have earned by launch and you have an additional $225m in income.
7.) Next Mannkind is already on record stating that they should have a technosphere announcement just after launch so let's say February/March.
8.) Oh and guess what? Mankind will likely not pay any taxes for several years with 2.2B or so in carry forward losses
9.) And has anyone noticed how weak the short argument has become? They only have left the issue of adoption and if you read and/or listen to the chatter it seems very positive about Afrezza from the street and I don't mean Cramer... And speaking of Cramer I believe he recently capitulated when he finally acknowledged he did not know where Mannkind would go in 2015 and decided to come out with a "Neutral" Rating on Mannkind. After all his bashing this could be interpreted as a positive sign for us longs and a signal to his legions that it is time to pull back from the short game and to go long...
And that is the premise of my post, that the shorts have made a killing thus far and they have done so because they are smart for the most part... and now they must also understand where this is going and I am guessing (yes this is all a guess on my part) that they will start very soon, if they have not already, transitioning to take advantage of what should be some healthy Q x Q growth for Mannkind which should accelerate the share price increase by justifying a higher P/E with the factoring of forward looking earnings fueled by Q x Q percentage growth of Afrezza Sales.
So once again I ask the question, is this the beginning of real short covering?
Any and all responses are welcome...
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 30, 2014 16:04:53 GMT -5
"healthy Q x Q growth for Mannkind" - mannmade, well said, that's the single greatest key to ignite the share price (other than a buy out, of course). But we'll need two full quarters, so I'm thinking the shorts have until the end September to mess with us, then, if the first quarter and a half have been pretty good, well, that second full quarter will really give them some pause.
mannmade, do you agree that today feels awfully cold here in LA? Gauge says 55, but it feels more like 47!! LOL! Okay, so it's not south Florida!
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Post by mannmade on Dec 30, 2014 17:06:40 GMT -5
Yes Baba I would say the single most important factor in share price (as I have been saying for quite some time) is not actual sales numbers (unless they are through the roof) but is the percentage of Q x Q growth over the first 12 months... Then we can accelerate the share price increase in valuation with factoring in the forward earnings for a year or two out...
I only disagree with you on the shorts to the degree that once sales begin (and revenue numbers are reported) and hopefully we have a technosphere deal or two to talk about, it will establish a new floor for them to mess with us on but am hopeful the new floor will be in double digit range or at least close to it...
The thing that confounds me (and others I assume) is that even if say the short shares come down by 10m that leaves 68m shares short... Still a lot and they must know that at some point the bottom for mannkind pps even if still under valued has got to move to a more permanent higher price.
Must admit as you say... there has been quite the chill in the air in LA (and for that matter on Mannkind)... Am hopeful things will heat up for both shortly... In the meantime I try to remember the science and keep the faith my friend...
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