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Post by robsacher on Jan 23, 2015 23:29:06 GMT -5
Baba, You could be right. The speculators who made money on the run up could simply have been the "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" guys who permeate the market. We may be seeing them again over the next couple of weeks as we get closer to launch. Do you suppose the p/s will crash yet again on "the news" of launch? I feel like I've seen Shane so many times already…  |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 23, 2015 23:36:53 GMT -5
rob, I think we might get hit some if we go up to and over $6. But if we don't then there's really not much to hit. I certainly have no problem seeing a drop from $5.75 to $5.25 after launch is confirmed, heck, how many times have we seen that already. That would be just noise. Now if the market really gets excited about launch and sends us to $6.50 to $7.00, well, the fall to earth would be a little harder. I sure hope we're in a position to release good T/S news soon after launch, that would be helpful.
I guess we need a guy like Alan Ladd to get rid of those freakin' hit piece artists!
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Post by obamayoumama on Jan 23, 2015 23:55:44 GMT -5
We have all read dozens of threads complaining about shorts/hedge fund managers manipulating the share price over the past 6 months through the use of attack pieces, naked shorting and a plethora of devious devices designed to drop MNKD to pre-ADCOM levels.
Could you make a similar argument that it was also manipulation that propelled this stock to $11/share in the first half of 2014? Was MNKD a victim of the classic "Pump & Dump"?
I would like to think that it was speculative buyers who pushed the stock price up. But if that were the case, how could they have simply disappeared after FDA approval? Was it because the buying pressure was never really as intense as we were led to believe? Was the pps being manipulated by long funds who made a killing, just as short interests have made $millions over the slide down to the current price level?
I guess the real question I'm posing here is this: DOES THE BROADER MARKET EVEN KNOW THE POTENTIAL VALUE OF MANNKIND? Based on stock movement since FDA approval, I would say "no". It does not appear that there has been much interest in this biotech company's future by the market at large.
Have I become the ultimate skeptic to think that the movement of this battlefield stock over the past year really comes down to the machination of a handful of powerful Wall Street institutions?
Don't misunderstand the thought behind this thread. I am EXTREMELY EXCITED ABOUT the prospects for this company. I'm just trying to figure out what happened during 2014. MannKind stock price movement seemed to be diametrically opposed to what an investor would normally expect, given the pivotal events that have occurred with Afrezza.
I believe the shorts believed that AFREZZA wouldn't pass the Adcomm. I also believe they have connections inside the FDA. I believe that they FDA was surprised by the vote. Many investors after the Adcomm bought stock and drove it up believing the FDA would approve AFREZZA. The FDA did not inform MNKD about their approval notification before releasing the approval on their website. Another bit of proof that someone inside the FDA is not playing by the rules. Most people that bought the stock hoping for a "pop" on the approval were disappointed when the stock stayed flat that day. I believe that the shorts naked shorted a few million shares to control the stock price. The shorts again didn't believe that MNKD would get a partner, and that MNKD was running low on cash and an offerring would be needed to happen because MNKD was running out of cash. Shocked once again that MNKD partnered, again they naked shorted the stock to contain the price. Many short term investors left and the stock sold off. The shorts have no good exit strategy, because they were wrong about Adcomm the FDA approval and Sanofi partnering up, and no additional offerring for their exit. Although the shorts have been able to cover a few million shares, they are going to find fewer and fewer shares available to buy back. These shares are being held for the long term not looking for a quick pop. Crammer and Fraudstein have very little impact on the stock. interesting trade last Friday. Someone who had written naked calls for the 5's of January covered, and wrote the 4 1/2 of February for .89 cents. I believe this was KARP doing a synthetic short. It is another way to short the stock. Problem is his max gain is if MNKD is 4.5 or less by the third Friday in February. He is already down by over a million dollars on that trade, with unlimited losses possible. What will happen in 2015? I believe AFREZZA will have a successful launch and analysts are going to need to raise their estimates. Bottom line, shorts are toast! |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Jan 24, 2015 18:18:32 GMT -5
In my humble opinion, despite the fact many little factors might have played a role on how the situation developed, the simplest explanation still fits. Expectation among the shorts that Afrezza would be approved were low up until the ADCOM. Right after the ADCOM, when it was clear chances of approval were high, the stock started climbing and continued climbing after approval on general rumors of a possible BO. Some of us thought that the chance of a BO was slim to none, but the fact that MNKD was at the brink of colapse, after the many years of research and development of Afrezza, seemed to add to the fumes that a BO was the only desirable way out for the company. During this time, the stock kept climbing, despite clear efforts from the short side to contain it. However, when it became clear BO was not coming, buying side pressure completely disappeared and shorts were able to, step by step, push the price down to pre-ADCOM levels. This was a huge shock for the longs, many just unable to comprehend what was happening. It is worth saying that having spent years of research and digestion of every single little piece of info related to Afrezza and Technosphere, many of those that believe in MNKD have had a hard time understanding those that do not share the same vision for the company. The downward move also came at a huge price for shorts, with number of shares shorted quickly increasing to levels that seemed not prudent even for the most convinced shorts. However, shorts had to know that the disappearance of a BO option would actually buy them time. which it did. The interesting situation we find ourselves into, at the moment, is that shorts might have thought they could count on production issues or a somewhat skeptical Sanofi to get more time to apply an out strategy, but slowly might be coming to the realization that instead they could be running out of it rather quickly, since most of the negatives they were clearly counting on are quickly vanishing one by one. Yes, in the meanwhile, those who have been able to recognize the pattern have made money swing trading, which has exacerbated the volatility of the stock. I wish I could forecast how the SP would evolve, my strength, if I can call it that, has always been at looking at the larger picture, but it seems clear that the last hope shorts must harbor is that adoption of Afrezza is slower that overoptimistic longs might expect. This will give them new ammo to carry out their agenda. In the absence of that, I believe RBC's estimates might come to materialize rather quickly, which could possibly turn into a nightmare for those in the short side of the equation. On the other hand, if adoption really is slow the SP might actually revisit some of the previous lows, giving shorts further chances to cover at a reasonable pace. In the end, no matter how I look at it, I can't seem to see Afrezza doing anything else than succeeding considerably, hence allowing MNKD to move forward with other potential applications for Technosphere with out risking further dilution, something shorts were counting on all along until Sanofi came into the picture. Sorry if my explanation does not take into consideration all the little details that might have played a part on the day to day action, but the overall lines, I think, are there. I started by saying that the simplest explanation is normally the right explanation. I believe this is the case regardless of how rational or irrational any one of us might perceive it to be. Cheers.
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Post by BD on Jan 24, 2015 19:09:49 GMT -5
Nice post, Evening. Makes a lot of sense. Now...please consider putting some paragraph breaks into these types of posts  |
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Post by liane on Jan 24, 2015 19:12:00 GMT -5
Nice post, Evening. Makes a lot of sense. Now...please consider putting some paragraph breaks into these types of posts I was thinking the exact same thing! |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Jan 24, 2015 21:06:37 GMT -5
Nice post, Evening. Makes a lot of sense. Now...please consider putting some paragraph breaks into these types of posts Sorry guys. I will try a little harder next time. With my kids and friends running around, I was just happy to finish it and post it. Did not think about how difficult it would be to read on that little font. |
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