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Post by kc on Jan 27, 2015 19:08:09 GMT -5
Board of directors of both companies can do what the want to do. They might already have the agreement completed. Maybe Regeneron buys into MannKind. Now that would be ironic. Technosphere works well in their line up. SNY owns almost 30% of REGN. Technosphere also fits into GENZYME they are strong Bio tech company owned 100% by Sanofi. lets not forget Medtronics. SHORTLY something good will occur for MannKind shareholders. they are limited in buying in 5%
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2015 19:14:27 GMT -5
I think the share price increase will become exponential and in a short while MNKD will acquire SNY. The writing is on the wall.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 27, 2015 21:02:23 GMT -5
Before the Sanofi Agreement I posted a thesis called "If I Were An 89-Year Old Billionaire..." where I outlined how the master tactician Al Mann was preparing his end game.
My theory was, and remains, that MannKind Corp will undergo restructuring and Technosphere will be spun off into its own company, with Al Mann also consolidating several of his other biotech companies (i.e. Medallion Therapeutics) into an entity that is entirely separate from Mannkind Corp.
Both companies will then be sold, with MannKind Corporation, with all rights to Afrezza, including the Danbury production facility going to Sanofi-Aventis. The consolidated companies could be sold to Medtronics, but I can also envision it standing on its own if coupled with the right developmental partnerships.
Another classic Alfred Mann business strategy? Only time will tell.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jan 27, 2015 21:38:40 GMT -5
Just because you can't see the people watching you doesn't mean they're not there.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 27, 2015 22:12:35 GMT -5
Just because you can't see the people watching you doesn't mean they're not there. And making faces at you. heheh
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 27, 2015 22:26:15 GMT -5
I will say that re: BO by SNY or not for Afrezza ..
One of the counter-arguments has been that 'why buy the cow when you already have the milk for free?'.
I think the counter to that is that if SNY is bullish on Afrezza, especially the worldwide opportunity (think China), is looking to become the insulin supplier, and eventually, once contract terms are met, the mfg arm too, they'll be dishing out 35% royalty (sub costs to 25% profit) to MNKD for ... doing nothing?
They are going to want to keep that 25%. We're talking big, big bucks.
So yea. Perhaps SNY can sit and wait to watch initial US market play out, wait for new CEO, and wait to show initial sales projections and EU and/or JPN approval to justify acquisition of Afrezza to their shareholders who may initially balk at high price from Old Mann. But they can't drag their feet on success or these next steps, or they shoot themselves. They've gotta pick up that diabetes business and turn their own stock around. But they can't wait til after the rocket takes off.
Tick tock. Tick tock. There's a window of opportunity and they are bounded on either side. Perhaps this is the chess game.
MNKD had to close the deal (which I still think is good), but they sacrificed a pawn, a bishop, for the checkmate.
And yea. If I were Old Mann, for my foundation and legacy, I'd sell off Afrezza to SNY, and then consolidate under the name sake. Cool. And a good business move.
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Post by _neil on Jan 28, 2015 14:31:14 GMT -5
All this seems like making connections where the dots don't exist. My average cost is $8 and there's nothing I'd like more than all this to be true but I am firmly in the camp of only believing whatever passes the sharpest Occam's razor. Here's what I believe.. MNKD hired Greenhill cos they weren't exactly flooded with offers. SNY gave MNKD the fairest deal they deserved and tied future payments to the actual success of the product. I see nothing spectacular going on behind the scenes and though I believe A is a great product, I'm now of the opinion that 10-11$ is the upper limit for MNKD unless the pipeline shows some surprise.
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Post by jpg on Jan 28, 2015 14:49:00 GMT -5
All this seems like making connections where the dots don't exist. My average cost is $8 and there's nothing I'd like more than all this to be true but I am firmly in the camp of only believing whatever passes the sharpest Occam's razor. Here's what I believe.. MNKD hired Greenhill cos they weren't exactly flooded with offers. SNY gave MNKD the fairest deal they deserved and tied future payments to the actual success of the product. I see nothing spectacular going on behind the scenes and though I believe A is a great product, I'm now of the opinion that 10-11$ is the upper limit for MNKD unless the pipeline shows some surprise. Hi poorneil, If like you I believed 10-11$ was the upper limit on Afrezza alone I would cash in now and quickly regardless of my buy in costs. There is no way the cost/ benefit works from 6.4 to 10$ over a few years. This being said I am not selling a single share and actually bought more in the low 5$ range (which increased my cost basis) because I think people are way underestimating the potential of Afrezza. Good luck and thank you for joining our group 30 minutes ago, JPG
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 28, 2015 15:13:22 GMT -5
All this seems like making connections where the dots don't exist. My average cost is $8 and there's nothing I'd like more than all this to be true but I am firmly in the camp of only believing whatever passes the sharpest Occam's razor. Here's what I believe.. MNKD hired Greenhill cos they weren't exactly flooded with offers. SNY gave MNKD the fairest deal they deserved and tied future payments to the actual success of the product. I see nothing spectacular going on behind the scenes and though I believe A is a great product, I'm now of the opinion that 10-11$ is the upper limit for MNKD unless the pipeline shows some surprise. I would agree with jpg regarding the potential for Afrezza being WELL beyond $11 pps impact. Simply look at the amount of revenue that flows to diabetes drugs. Afrezza has a very real potential of becoming a new standard of care... and short of a cure for diabetes it will be something difficult for competitors to displace. MNKD could be hugely profitable based on what we know to be roughly the equivalent of 25% royalty on this revenue stream. As for the razor. I think all the delays, setbacks, ups and downs of MNKD have left some investors with very dull Occam's razors, believing that a lack of any evidence must absolutely prove that for which the evidence is lacking... "they aren't talking, so they must be not talking about what I desperately want to be true". That said... I am rooting for MNKD to buy SNY. Once the pipeline is in place and the market cap soars... why not recapture the other 65% of Afrezza
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Post by Chris-C on Jan 28, 2015 15:31:04 GMT -5
All this seems like making connections where the dots don't exist. My average cost is $8 and there's nothing I'd like more than all this to be true but I am firmly in the camp of only believing whatever passes the sharpest Occam's razor. Here's what I believe.. MNKD hired Greenhill cos they weren't exactly flooded with offers. SNY gave MNKD the fairest deal they deserved and tied future payments to the actual success of the product. I see nothing spectacular going on behind the scenes and though I believe A is a great product, I'm now of the opinion that 10-11$ is the upper limit for MNKD unless the pipeline shows some surprise. I would agree with jpg regarding the potential for Afrezza being WELL beyond $11 pps impact. Simply look at the amount of revenue that flows to diabetes drugs. Afrezza has a very real potential of becoming a new standard of care... and short of a cure for diabetes it will be something difficult for competitors to displace. MNKD could be hugely profitable based on what we know to be roughly the equivalent of 25% royalty on this revenue stream. As for the razor. I think all the delays, setbacks, ups and downs of MNKD have left some investors with very dull Occam's razors, believing that a lack of any evidence must absolutely prove that for which the evidence is lacking... "they aren't talking, so they must be not talking about what I desperately want to be true". That said... I am rooting for MNKD to buy SNY. Once the pipeline is in place and the market cap soars... why not recapture the other 65% of Afrezza Dream I love positive thinking! Keep it coming! Reviewing the price action today, I thought I'd see if anyone frequenting the board has access to level 2 to provide a perspective on what has been happening. There was a Report that the short interest actually increased modestly. So given the volatility today, is there any covering taking place, are the bears making their predicted run with limited ammo in the face of more long buyers, or are the day traders taking profits from the run ups over the past few days? I know we have passed some resistance points, but it occurs to me that we may be bucking up against another. Can folks with greater technical skill (and access to information) share a perspective? Thanks and Good luck to all longs! Chris_C
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 28, 2015 15:50:18 GMT -5
Chris-C, Lizards rarely have deep insight into chart patterns, and I suspect that action today is fed/market driven. That said, my untrained eye noticed that in our last really strong move up (May 2014) we saw 4 up days, 1 down, 4 up, 2 down and then 4 up. Given that we just had 4 up days, I'm not worried about today being a real reversal.
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Post by coco on Jan 28, 2015 17:28:04 GMT -5
Hi Poorneil, just wondering how long you have been in this stock. Have you done your DD. Are you aware of all the other aspects that are involved here. It's not as black and white as you portray it to be. There are a lot of other applications to consider not just with Sanofi but with other BP. I feel $10 to 11 is extremely low. Coco
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Post by robsacher on Jan 28, 2015 18:20:49 GMT -5
Have you seen the very positive article out on MannKind in Forbes yesterday: www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2015/01/27/afrezza-breathes-life-into-mannkind/It's an interview with Nate Pile, the highly successful Marketocracy portfolio fund manager. His p/s estimates are $25 to $40 p/s and maybe higher, with a 3 to 5 year window. Note: There's a discussion about this article on page 50 of the "Articles and Media Spots" pinned thread. -BD
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 28, 2015 18:34:42 GMT -5
Hi Poorneil, just wondering how long you have been in this stock. Have you done your DD. Are you aware of all the other aspects that are involved here. It's not as black and white as you portray it to be. There are a lot of other applications to consider not just with Sanofi but with other BP. I feel $10 to 11 is extremely low. Coco Coco, I know you wrote the above to shame me and my relentless cohorts, bullies and henchmen like Spiro, by showing how much kinder and gentler, more civilized and evolved, and downright reserved and proper you are! Well, I'll guarantee that if there were a choice of sending you, Spiro or me against an Al Mann detractor in person, no holds barred, the detractor had better hope he was pitted against either (or both) of the two boys! By the way, did you ever get that question about FDA chief Margaret Hamburg's husband answered? I can't remember if we ever really got around to that.
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Post by spiro on Jan 28, 2015 19:34:43 GMT -5
Hey Baba, those looked like pretty strong words coming from Coco to that Poorneil guy, but her nice happy face kinda spoiled the message. Now lately, JPG is taking everybody on and he doesn't take any prisoners. Spiro has reached a point where he is becoming indifferent to the nonsense that some posters are spewing out. Everything has been said that needs to be out there and it's now in the hands of Sanofi reps, smart doctors and smart patients. It's time to sit back, relax and just let this thing happen. It's going to take some time, but I for one am certainly not going to run out of patience now. I think that by the time this years annual meeting comes, there will be a lot of happy people meeting in Danbury or not.
Spiro here
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