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Post by tonyz on Sept 9, 2015 15:58:59 GMT -5
First of all, just wanted to say I'm enjoying and appreciate this forum. I don't even mind the occasional negative perspective. I like to know what the guy on the other side of my trade is thinking. At the risk of being "Mr. Obvious"... All those shares sold short will have to be bought back some day. There are a huge number of shares that will need to be bought when and if we start getting some unexpected good news. A lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. I have a huge position in Jan 17 3 dollar calls (LEAPS) so if the stock price is below $3 on the expiration date my investment is wiped out. Today I added to my position by buying Jan 17 3-7 call spreads at prices between .74 and .80. I have no business adding to my MNKD position because I'm way overweight in it but couldn't resist the risk-reward ratio on the trade. Using round numbers if MNKD is 3 or below on expiration I lose $800 on 10 contracts if it's $7 or above I make $3200. Hope there are others that might benefit from this. Of course there's no guarantee that MNKD will be above $3.00 in January 2017 but I do like the odds.
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Post by mssciguy on Sept 9, 2015 16:08:18 GMT -5
First of all, just wanted to say I'm enjoying and appreciate this forum. I don't even mind the occasional negative perspective. I like to know what the guy on the other side of my trade is thinking. At the risk of being "Mr. Obvious"... All those shares sold short will have to be bought back some day. There are a huge number of shares that will need to be bought when and if we start getting some unexpected good news. A lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. I have a huge position in Jan 17 3 dollar calls (LEAPS) so if the stock price is below $3 on the expiration date my investment is wiped out. Today I added to my position by buying Jan 17 3-7 call spreads at prices between .74 and .80. I have no business adding to my MNKD position because I'm way overweight in it but couldn't resist the risk-reward ratio on the trade. Using round numbers if MNKD is 3 or below on expiration I lose $800 on 10 contracts if it's $7 or above I make $3200. Hope there are others that might benefit from this. Of course there's no guarantee that MNKD will be above $3.00 in January 2017 but I do like the odds. You seem like a pretty smart guy. I just might take your approach also, just waiting for some funds to settle. You are right, "keep your friends close, but your enemies closer" I think I heard once somewhere, thanks for posting and why not pursue the very same strategies many hedge funds are employing. That said, I am also reminded of the words of Al Nobel (the guy that funded the Nobel Prize), "Lying is the worst sin" --- we would all be better off without liars, especially ones that buy their way into media placements, it's corrupt and should stop but the best we can do now, is recognize and adapt. Too many analysts out there whose ethics are equivalent to a donkey's behind
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Post by robsacher on Sept 10, 2015 9:33:31 GMT -5
First of all, just wanted to say I'm enjoying and appreciate this forum. I don't even mind the occasional negative perspective. I like to know what the guy on the other side of my trade is thinking. At the risk of being "Mr. Obvious"... All those shares sold short will have to be bought back some day. There are a huge number of shares that will need to be bought when and if we start getting some unexpected good news. A lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. I have a huge position in Jan 17 3 dollar calls (LEAPS) so if the stock price is below $3 on the expiration date my investment is wiped out. Today I added to my position by buying Jan 17 3-7 call spreads at prices between .74 and .80. I have no business adding to my MNKD position because I'm way overweight in it but couldn't resist the risk-reward ratio on the trade. Using round numbers if MNKD is 3 or below on expiration I lose $800 on 10 contracts if it's $7 or above I make $3200. Hope there are others that might benefit from this. Of course there's no guarantee that MNKD will be above $3.00 in January 2017 but I do like the odds. It seems if one believes that Afrezza will make headway with endocrinologists in 2016 then MNKD should be trading higher in January 2017. But, the reason why I do not buy options in MNKD is because the time frame ahead may take longer than one year. It might take two or three years. I recommend keeping a core position and taking some percentage of your shares with which you feel comfortable and trading them through the up/down/up/down cycles that we'll most likely be in play for the next year. Take a look at the two year MNKD chart and see where the bottom and top were at various price per share points. Today, MNKD p/s is about as low as it has ever traded. If one believes that Afrezza will eventually be successful, then perhaps today's p/s is a good entry point. However, selling the shares you add today when the p/s rebounds to some point ahead, +10%, +20%, +30%, for example, will mean that you can buy back in with those added shares when the inevitable next short raid occurs. I recommend trading those added shares in a 10% zone, from $3.60 to $3.90 until MannKind has some sort of a positive catalyst that can be responsible for moving the p/s higher. Unless there's something of a surprise announced by management, a positive catalyst strong enough to get MNKD above $4 and keep it there will be increasing new prescriptions reported. I think that will eventually happen. In addition, getting Afrezza into Tier 2 health insurance levels would also be helpful. I think this will also happen. MannKind Two Year, YTD, Chart: finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MNKD+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Good luck and Stay Long! RS
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Post by tonyz on Sept 10, 2015 12:03:39 GMT -5
I totally agree with your premise and have been trading around my core MNKD position for quite awhile. I didn't want to get too deep into option strategy because the risk of someone losing a lot of money really fast when they don't understand the leverage is very real. I have lightened up as you suggest both with the afrezza approval spike and also the more recent pop to around 7, making substantial profits each time. I will be rolling out or establishing new positions when the 2018 LEAPS come out.
Where I have broken my own guidelines is that I have plowed all my profits and more back into MNKD making the position a much higher percentage of my portfolio than I would normally have in one stock. A very dangerous thing to do on what may be turn out to be a binary event. I try to maintain an even keel, but I guess you can call me a true believer in MNKD.
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Post by peppy on Sept 10, 2015 12:07:33 GMT -5
This is what I hear, blah, blah, blah. $3.61 USD is a good price on a multi year leap.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2015 15:13:33 GMT -5
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Post by mssciguy on Sept 10, 2015 15:32:09 GMT -5
Numbers tomorrow morning. I think that once Sanofi unveils it's "Afrezza is cool" strategy (hopefully after pediatric studies are done) that will propel this company to great places. Children are so adaptable, the ultimate "early adopters" and there are plenty of T1s among them. Hoping for a cure, like everyone.
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Post by parrerob on Sept 10, 2015 16:15:20 GMT -5
Great Numbers 415 m. + 126 m. equal 541 m. shares in total hands about 315 m. is the quote from insider + institutional 226 milioni shares left in "small" investors hands of which 126 millions (55%) must be called back and disappear ... 55% is an amazing number ! If quarter by quarter "instututionals" continue to increase and SI will not decrease (as it is going since time) in 2 or 3 quarters maximum we Will realize that on every 3 shares We own 2 must be bought back from someone. "MUST" !!!. If thinks will improve just a little, as We all hope, we will have smiling days soon.
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Post by harrys on Sept 11, 2015 19:09:59 GMT -5
Ive seen the idea floated in a few places that MNKD should just issue dividends and that would purge the stock of short interest. I understand the concept that this would call for all shares to be accounted for and expose naked shorts but is this truly a viable options? And, if so why hasn't MNKD done this? Any minds more cooperate finance savvy then me have any input?
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Post by mssciguy on Sept 11, 2015 19:52:55 GMT -5
Ive seen the idea floated in a few places that MNKD should just issue dividends and that would purge the stock of short interest. I understand the concept that this would call for all shares to be accounted for and expose naked shorts but is this truly a viable options? And, if so why hasn't MNKD done this? Any minds more cooperate finance savvy then me have any input? harrys Dividends on a stock without profit. You have to be joking. Only thestreet (TST) does something so foolish, but they have the ethics of a pit bull. Growth stocks (like this one) don't have profits, so they don't have dividends. How many years did it take for MSFT or AAPL (both HUGE growth companies) to offer a dividend..... short answer: decades. None of us wants dividends here. We want to see a great, natural product based therapy (real human insulin) alleviate suffering in diabetics and prediabetics. The greedy, short-attention span crowd on Wall Street either doesn't understand real medicine or science, or they have no ethics at all, or all of the above, take your pick, take a wild guess.
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 11, 2015 19:55:40 GMT -5
First of all, just wanted to say I'm enjoying and appreciate this forum. I don't even mind the occasional negative perspective. I like to know what the guy on the other side of my trade is thinking. At the risk of being "Mr. Obvious"... All those shares sold short will have to be bought back some day. There are a huge number of shares that will need to be bought when and if we start getting some unexpected good news. A lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. I have a huge position in Jan 17 3 dollar calls (LEAPS) so if the stock price is below $3 on the expiration date my investment is wiped out. Today I added to my position by buying Jan 17 3-7 call spreads at prices between .74 and .80. I have no business adding to my MNKD position because I'm way overweight in it but couldn't resist the risk-reward ratio on the trade. Using round numbers if MNKD is 3 or below on expiration I lose $800 on 10 contracts if it's $7 or above I make $3200. Hope there are others that might benefit from this. Of course there's no guarantee that MNKD will be above $3.00 in January 2017 but I do like the odds. I have to say you are a lot smarter than I am! I bought the 2017's but I bought the 5's and 7's. 380 of them:-( I was going with my gut. But in the last year I think my guts been out to lunch! Lol. I started with almost nothing buying the home builders in 2010 and did well. So in a way I'm still on the houses money. If I have to start over again then so be it. I think we have a winner! Good luck and good times ahead!!
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Post by harrys on Sept 11, 2015 19:56:27 GMT -5
Ive seen the idea floated in a few places that MNKD should just issue dividends and that would purge the stock of short interest. I understand the concept that this would call for all shares to be accounted for and expose naked shorts but is this truly a viable options? And, if so why hasn't MNKD done this? Any minds more cooperate finance savvy then me have any input? harrys Dividends on a stock without profit. You have to be joking. Only thestreet (TST) does something so foolish, but they have the ethics of a pit bull. Growth stocks (like this one) don't have profits, so they don't have dividends. How many years did it take for MSFT or AAPL (both HUGE growth companies) to offer a dividend..... short answer: decades. None of us wants dividends here. We want to see a great, natural product based therapy (real human insulin) alleviate suffering in diabetics and prediabetics. The greedy, short-attention span crowd on Wall Street either doesn't understand real medicine or science, or they have no ethics at all, or all of the above, take your pick, take a wild guess. I think you may have misunderstood my post. I don't mean dividends for the sake of the shareholders; a $0.01 dividend for the sole purpose of exposing naked shorts and manipulating short interest.
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Post by mssciguy on Sept 11, 2015 20:49:46 GMT -5
harrys Dividends on a stock without profit. You have to be joking. Only thestreet (TST) does something so foolish, but they have the ethics of a pit bull. Growth stocks (like this one) don't have profits, so they don't have dividends. How many years did it take for MSFT or AAPL (both HUGE growth companies) to offer a dividend..... short answer: decades. None of us wants dividends here. We want to see a great, natural product based therapy (real human insulin) alleviate suffering in diabetics and prediabetics. The greedy, short-attention span crowd on Wall Street either doesn't understand real medicine or science, or they have no ethics at all, or all of the above, take your pick, take a wild guess. I think you may have misunderstood my post. I don't mean dividends for the sake of the shareholders; a $0.01 dividend for the sole purpose of exposing naked shorts and manipulating short interest. Why not contact investor relations at mannkindcorp.com to forward that information, if you think it's a great idea, harrys ... and please let us know if you hear anything back from them. Thanks in advance, man, you can do it!
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Post by harrys on Sept 11, 2015 21:30:42 GMT -5
I think you may have misunderstood my post. I don't mean dividends for the sake of the shareholders; a $0.01 dividend for the sole purpose of exposing naked shorts and manipulating short interest. Why not contact investor relations at mannkindcorp.com to forward that information, if you think it's a great idea, harrys ... and please let us know if you hear anything back from them. Thanks in advance, man, you can do it! I have sent inquiries through email many times and rarely hear back, if I do its generic info. I sense the sarcasm here but its appreciated.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 11, 2015 22:05:51 GMT -5
harrys... naked shorting if it happens much is probably a short term phenomena used to spike a stock down on a particular day. MM firms have some leeway to do it legally [though technically probably only legal to provide liquidity not to manipulate] but only have limited time to deliver. There isn't a huge number of naked short shares floating around for long periods... at least I certainly can't imagine it. Who is paying Fidelity such exorbitant interest to borrow shares if all the hedge funds are creating fake shares? If the shorts borrowing from Fidelity can make money paying up to 80% interest (I think it was that high at one point), it doesn't seem logical that shorts with fake unborrowed shares couldn't afford to pay any amount of dividend that MNKD could afford to pay out. Not that I think there are lots of fake shares, but paying a one time $0.01 would be cheaper than paying the interest to borrow the shares.
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