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Post by mnkdorbust on Feb 13, 2015 12:43:43 GMT -5
Just for kicks and conversation i would like to see/hear feedback from Exubera users. I would assume there were some that "liked" Exubera and would like to get their input on Afrezza from a how it works for them, etc assume they used Exubera and now Afrezza.
I'm more interested in the medical results for them and although it's not a apples to apples comparison would just like that feedback. Did Afrezzauser ever use E?
I can see both sides of E users wanting to and not to use A. Wanting to use it as they were either early adaptors or just hated needles like most people. Not wanting to use it as if they liked it and it failed like E then they are back to switching up again. I'm long and in the camp that this is a game changing delivery mechanism as well as diabetes tool but from all of my research, etc i personally can't find any E users talking about A as of yet.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 13, 2015 13:06:49 GMT -5
gomnkd... do you know what the dropout rate was for the trials? I've heard that number but don't recall what it was. I'm assuming that since you have a particular acceptable threshold in mind for retention, you are basing this on retention rate in trials... or retention rate for some drug you consider "comparable"?
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Post by gomnkd on Feb 13, 2015 13:29:51 GMT -5
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Post by kc on Feb 13, 2015 14:28:28 GMT -5
I was at my GP today and he has not heard of Afrezza yet. He said that his Sanofi rep is only scheduled to visit about once a month. He was interested in what I thold him about the product and had know on Exubera as he pointed to his on the wall hand sanitzer spray as a compaison to the Bong. He is a very good Doctor in a practice in a HCA related office so I found it odd. My ENDO friend is all over it and has had two engagements with Sanofi. Very strange the the GP down the street has not heard yet. Oh well. I am not concerned.
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Post by jpg on Feb 13, 2015 15:15:23 GMT -5
I was at my GP today and he has not heard of Afrezza yet. He said that his Sanofi rep is only scheduled to visit about once a month. He was interested in what I thold him about the product and had know on Exubera as he pointed to his on the wall hand sanitzer spray as a compaison to the Bong. He is a very good Doctor in a practice in a HCA related office so I found it odd. My ENDO friend is all over it and has had two engagements with Sanofi. Very strange the the GP down the street has not heard yet. Oh well. I am not concerned. Reality check: It's been launched a week ago! One week... I for one would find it very strange if the majority (or if even 10%) of GPs have heard of Afrezza yet. Medicine doesn't work in 'real time'. It's not as if GPs (or the vast majority of doctors) scan the new drug launches on a weekly or monthly basis... It just doesn't work that way.
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Post by 1 percenter on Feb 13, 2015 15:21:46 GMT -5
I was at my GP today and he has not heard of Afrezza yet. He said that his Sanofi rep is only scheduled to visit about once a month. He was interested in what I thold him about the product and had know on Exubera as he pointed to his on the wall hand sanitzer spray as a compaison to the Bong. He is a very good Doctor in a practice in a HCA related office so I found it odd. My ENDO friend is all over it and has had two engagements with Sanofi. Very strange the the GP down the street has not heard yet. Oh well. I am not concerned. It has been relayed that Sanofi is targeting only specific Endos and GPs at first. Your GP might not be one that is in that initial target group.
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Post by jpg on Feb 13, 2015 17:26:54 GMT -5
Just to put the scale of things in perspective. Afrezza has been launched one week. There are over 700000 doctors that see patients in the US. Over 200000 of these do primary care. Let us say just half (100000) of those that do primary care see diabetics and prescribe diabetic medications and 1/10 specialists (50000) prescribe diabetics medication (this group would include endos and other specialists (like me) who see diabetics in hospitals, clinics etc) for a very rough total if about 150000 MDs who have some involvement in prescribing diabetic medication. Let us say that Sanofi (with supposedly 1500 reps) selects 10% of these MDs as 'low hanging fruit prescribers' we are still left with 15000 MDs. Seeing 10 MDs per rep in a week once is possible but that is a very small % of the total MD population...
We are very very early in the commercial life of Afrezza...
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Post by mannmade on Feb 13, 2015 19:45:03 GMT -5
jpg, I was not going to post this but since you went out on the limb I will join you... I had roughly the same approach but looked at it this way...
I guesstimated at 100,000 docs likely to prescribe Afrezza on semi regular/regular basis (depending on number of diabetics in their patient pool). I can't recall where I read this but do recall this number in an article I read previously.
I figured the same 1,500 reps
I had each rep seeing (a very conservative) 1 doctor per day x 5 days per week equals 20 docs per month
that's 30,000 docs in the first month exposed to Afrezza
I discounted 10,000 of the 30,000 not writing a single prescription and averaged 1 script per month on the remaining 20,000 doctors for the first 3 months and that's 60,000 scripts
Now that does this does not account for the additional 20k to 30k docs added in months 2 and 3 which could add up to 60,000 additional docs exposed to Afrezza by month 3
This is a very rudimentary analysis and am not using to draw any conclusions... Am just trying to make a reasonable/rational attempt at what we might expect...
I have two doctor friends both with significant diabetes care practices and both are now prescribing Afrezza. Between them I think they wrote 5 scripts this week... So hopefully my numbers are low...
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Post by robsacher on Feb 14, 2015 16:44:17 GMT -5
kc,
I believe that Sanofi is concentrating their sales force on endocrinologists for now in regard to awareness about Afrezza and that presentations with GPs will come afterward.
RS
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2015 20:02:41 GMT -5
jpg, I was not going to post this but since you went out on the limb I will join you... I had roughly the same approach but looked at it this way... I guesstimated at 100,000 docs likely to prescribe Afrezza on semi regular/regular basis (depending on number of diabetics in their patient pool). I can't recall where I read this but do recall this number in an article I read previously. I figured the same 1,500 reps I had each rep seeing (a very conservative) 1 doctor per day x 5 days per week equals 20 docs per month that's 30,000 docs in the first month exposed to Afrezza I discounted 10,000 of the 30,000 not writing a single prescription and averaged 1 script per month on the remaining 20,000 doctors for the first 3 months and that's 60,000 scripts Now that does this does not account for the additional 20k to 30k docs added in months 2 and 3 which could add up to 60,000 additional docs exposed to Afrezza by month 3 This is a very rudimentary analysis and am not using to draw any conclusions... Am just trying to make a reasonable/rational attempt at what we might expect... I have two doctor friends both with significant diabetes care practices and both are now prescribing Afrezza. Between them I think they wrote 5 scripts this week... So hopefully my numbers are low... My contact has shares with me there are 100-110k docs that can prescribe afrezza in the US. So your numbers match
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Post by mannmade on Feb 14, 2015 20:24:47 GMT -5
kc, I believe that Sanofi is concentrating their sales force on endocrinologists for now in regard to awareness about Afrezza and that presentations with GPs will come afterward. RS I live in Los Angeles and neither one of my two doctor friends is an endo. Both have been contacted at least once by a Sanofi rep spevcifically to discuss Afrezza. One of my two doc friends was also called on by a RSL (Regional Scientific Liaison). Also I got the phone number of one of the reps and gave her a call. She would not discuss any specifics with me as she was not sure what she could say, having never received a call from a Sanofi Investor (I disclosed my reason for calling) She is going to refer my call to her manager and I am hoping to get a call from him as a stakeholder in Sanofi (but a much larger one in Mannkind) However the Sanofi who called on one of my doc friends that I spoke with as mentioned abo ve did tell me she was the Sanofi "Afrezza" rep for the area. So I think Sanofi's doctor net is cast a bit wider than you may suspect...
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Post by coco on Feb 15, 2015 0:42:21 GMT -5
It takes time to get the word out. The reps are working hard. They can only see so many doc' per week. We have waited this long, what is a few more months. I'm a die hard mnkd investor just bear with me, I mostly see the glass as always half full. My friends can atest to this Coco
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 15, 2015 18:32:29 GMT -5
Coco writes: "I mostly see the glass as always half full." Well, okay then!
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Post by compound26 on Dec 3, 2015 16:04:03 GMT -5
I had been hoping for comparison with Exubera, but the weird dragged out launch for Exubera makes that considerably less meaningful early on. Not really apples to apples to compare Afrezza launch with either the early exubera numbers or the numbers from exubera's full launch. Oh well. Here are later numbers people have posted for Exubera showing about where it plateaued before being taken off the market in Oct... 5/04/2007 = 1,664 Trx 5/11/2007 = 1,670 Trx 5/18/2007 = 1,659 Trx 5/25/2007 = 1,816 Trx ... 6/22/2007 = 1.883 Trx 6/29/2007 = 1.858 Trx DBC, fyi, I have added a few new TRx numbers and also added the NRx and Refills numbers to the extent I can find them on the web. It appears Exubera plateaued at around 1,800+ TRx, 1,200+ NRx and 600+ Refills before being taken off the market in Oct. 2007. 3/16/2007 = 1,367 Trx (NRx, 988, Refills, 379) 3/23/2007 = 1,296 Trx (NRx, 944, Refills, 352) 3/30/2007 = 1,351 Trx (NRx, 958, Refills, 393) ... 5/04/2007 = 1,664 Trx 5/11/2007 = 1,670 Trx 5/18/2007 = 1,659 Trx 5/25/2007 = 1,816 Trx ... 6/22/2007 = 1,883 Trx (NRx, 1,295, Refills 588) 6/29/2007 = 1,858 Trx (NRx, 1,273, Refills 585) 7/06/2007 = ... 7/13/2007 = 1,683 Trx (NRx, 1,049, Refills, 634) 7/20/2007 = 1,856 Trx (NRx, 1,242, Refills, 614) 7/27/2007 = 1,866 Trx (NRx, 1,202, Refills, 664)
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