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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 27, 2015 6:56:11 GMT -5
Ever since I found out the AMPH was the sole producer of Afrezza I've been watching it's chart since I thought it could give us an indication of Insulin production/Afrezza success (via price increase). Though hardy scientific, I felt that MNKD's SP was too manipulated to determine what the market/patients really thought of Afrezza. AMPH, though not manipulated like MNKD, does have some correlation with it. If you look at the chart of AMPH, it bottomed at about $10 in Nov and has steadily gone up since...to $13.85. That's a nice 40% increase! So I see this is very positive for Afrezza since AMPH must be increasing insulin production, hence the increase of stock price. Yes, maybe a lot of inference on my part, but I don't see how AMPH can go up 40% w/o it being closely tied to expected sales of Afrezza.
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Post by gwb on Feb 27, 2015 7:04:12 GMT -5
There was a rumor that they were going to be brought out a few weeks back , hence to pop to 13.85 . Don't know anything of it . Good Luck .
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 27, 2015 7:21:21 GMT -5
More info on the agreement between AMPH & MNKD...
Supply Agreement with MannKind Corporation
On July 31, 2014, the Company entered into a supply agreement with MannKind Corporation, or MannKind, pursuant to which AFP will manufacture for and supply to MannKind certain quantities of recombinant human insulin, or Insulin, for use in MannKind’s product AFREZZA ® . Under the terms of the supply agreement, AFP will be responsible for manufacturing the Insulin in accordance with MannKind’s specifications and agreed-upon quality standards. MannKind has agreed to purchase annual minimum quantities of Insulin under the supply agreement of an aggregate of approximately €120.1 million, or approximately $152.3 million , in calendar years 2015 through 2019. MannKind may request to purchase additional quantities of Insulin over such annual minimum quantities.
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 27, 2015 7:22:19 GMT -5
There was a rumor that they were going to be brought out a few weeks back , hence to pop to 13.85 . Don't know anything of it . Good Luck . Hmmm....probably as good a rumor as MNKD being BO after FDA approval!!! |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 27, 2015 8:08:15 GMT -5
Folks might not be aware that Amphastar and Sanofi are currently in a court battle over a bio-similar being produced by Amphastar. They do have more than just supplying insulin going for them, but the revenue from MannKind certainly gives them a boost.
(Incidentally, I have previously posted my thesis that SNY will eventually acquire AMPH. It's certainly within their best interests, since Amphastar's new China production plant has faced multiple delays. M&A would resolve the court battle and give Sanofi another facility in China).
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Post by dallasfan on Feb 27, 2015 8:11:24 GMT -5
There was also talk about mnkd switching to sanofi insulin. Think this will eventually happen so be careful with amph.
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 27, 2015 8:35:42 GMT -5
There was also talk about mnkd switching to sanofi insulin. Think this will eventually happen so be careful with amph. That could certainly happen...look for SNY to announce FDA inspection of Insulin production. I don't think the approval processes is quick so notification will give us time to make the appropriate decisions. |
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Post by kball on Feb 27, 2015 9:09:51 GMT -5
Folks might not be aware that Amphastar and Sanofi are currently in a court battle over a bio-similar being produced by Amphastar. They do have more than just supplying insulin going for them, but the revenue from MannKind certainly gives them a boost. (Incidentally, I have previously posted my thesis that SNY will eventually acquire AMPH. It's certainly within their best interests, since Amphastar's new China production plant has faced multiple delays. M&A would resolve the court battle and give Sanofi another facility in China). These are the kinds of things that unnerve me with drug production. All the different source materials coming from who knows where. Anyone remember about 5 years back those heart patients that were mysteriously getting sick and dying in the US? Traced back to filler ingredients in the very common meds they were being given (i think eventually traced back to india in this particular case) I think. Memory is cloudy a bit. My GF at the time was a cath lab nurse. |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 27, 2015 9:12:10 GMT -5
Switching to Sanofi insulin will DEFINITELY happen, even though AMPH has a 5-year purchase agreement. But wouldn't it be sweet for Sanofi if they owned both their own insulin and Amphastar's? Immediately, the COGS would drop as there is no markup from AMPH to MannKind.
...see my point with the acquisition?
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 27, 2015 12:28:20 GMT -5
Common business wisdom is generally to maintain at least 2 suppliers and back up inventory of critical-path components.
I could imagine AMPH being kept on agreement for a while, with a minimum buy agreement for fault tolerance. SNY would need to spin up more than one producing location and get it approved before MNKD could drop the AMPH agreement.
They can always lead with the SNY stock for COGS control.
IMHO.
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 27, 2015 12:34:24 GMT -5
Unless one FDA cert covers multiple locations. Even then, for scale and fault tolerance, AMPH could be a fall back.
Will be interesting to see though, if SNY does look at acquisition there. Seems though, that AMPH is a fairly big buy? I think that SNY would have more to gain buying MNKD in that case, including the platform.
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Post by alethea on Feb 27, 2015 12:36:48 GMT -5
Q2, sorry but just heard that Spock died today, for real, at age 83.
Star Trek Lover
Live long and Prosper!
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 27, 2015 19:42:28 GMT -5
I raise my glass of Klingon Ale in a toast to Leonard Nimoy - may he "live long and prosper" in the next life.
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Post by BlueCat on Mar 1, 2015 0:26:22 GMT -5
Hey, just saw these comments. Was mostly off past couple.
Indeed.
LLAP - or in Klingon - Qapla'! Today is a good day to die.
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