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Post by whosmitchconnor on Mar 1, 2015 3:14:10 GMT -5
Lest I be cast out I'll preface by saying I am long MNKD and really do believe Afrezza will be a blockbuster. I also dont have much investing experience so this may serve as a general investing question. Talking now extremely short term (4-6 weeks) do you hold your position even if the price action looks bad. Looking at the chart from about 8 weeks back we look like we're in an extremely bearish trend right now. That coupled with the apparent manipulation that's gone on here and I think MNKD is going to have a hard time holding even this price level. It looks to me like the price is head back to 6, and if it cant hold that level, all the way back to 5.25 range. I guess my question is do you sell all or part and buy back lower, or simply add on dips; are either of these strategies superior to the other?
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Post by BD on Mar 1, 2015 4:42:13 GMT -5
IMO, that's a question every investor needs to answer for themselves based on their confidence level, investing goals, risk tolerance and, most important of all, the reliability of their crystal ball.
Personally, I've been buying on dips and trying to take some off on the rips...but what usually happens is that the buying opportunities seem to outnumber the selling opps, and I end up with my dry powder out of stock. That's about the time when Brian Shannon's great line comes to mind: "It's better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out."
If there were really one "best" strategy, everyone would be doing it... and so it wouldn't work. It's rather a paradox of investing. I guess if there really was a best strategy, it would look more like buy and hold than trading like crazy, just for the reason it would cost less in commissions and take less of your life away. After spending a number of years as a "hyper-active trader", I'm still struggling to shift my M.O. into more of a long-term view and not let myself get as emotionally rocked by the volatility. I certainly picked the right sector to be overweight in for making that goal be a serious challenge, though!
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Post by kball on Mar 1, 2015 6:32:58 GMT -5
I'm old school in that i still view my investments as owning a business. My turnover is pretty low and i'm always looking to bag elephants...companies that can have a 10+ year run.
That said, I don't see anything wrong with having a core portfolio of certain securities...along with some other stocks that are much shorter term to take advantage of which way the wind happens to be blowing.
btw, every investor has stories of stocks they sold too soon or held too long. Nature of the beast.
I met an older fellow about 17 years ago that had been invested in Berkshire Hathaway from the very beginning. Literally one of the earliest investors. Friend of Warren's since grade school.
I've thought long and hard about that. And still do.
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Post by afrizzle on Mar 1, 2015 10:51:24 GMT -5
I follow the daily price action for sport but it doesn't really matter to me whether there are pull backs or advances. Unless of course we hit the 3s, where I'd reevaluate whether my full position is really full. My investment thesis
-MannKind either succeeds with Afrezza or probably goes bust
-I believe in the product and in Al Mann
- Sanofi is the right partner and they targeted 3.1 million patients . en.sanofi.com/Images/37650_NMD_Full_pres_20112014_FINAL_sec.pdf slide 89
- Even 10% of sanofis target is in range of current share price, look out if they hit full goal or beyond
- The ROW and other technosphere apps are gravy
- because of the poorly designed trials, Afrezza's label isn't as strong as its potential (can't claim less hypos, cant claim significantly . lower A1c, etc..)
-Sanofi will be doing additional clinicals to improve the label but this is a couple year process
Therefore, I intend to hold at least 3-5 years depending on how fast all of the above plays out, or unless, $100/share, or unless buyout These are just my beliefs, and I think everyone needs to do their own due diligence and make their decision. We are all at different life stages with different resources and goals and one size does not fit all  |
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Post by afrizzle on Mar 1, 2015 11:05:49 GMT -5
I want to add that the chatter on seeking alpha about the subset of the subset of available patients is noise to me. Sanofi put itself out there with its sales target. As a public company this is risky to the extent that it's considered investment guidance.
I take that to mean they think they can do it in a reasonable time period. Therefor if we subscribe to their goal, the argument should be about how we value that sales level.
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Post by Chris-C on Mar 1, 2015 13:23:22 GMT -5
Whosmitchconnor:
I think you've asked a reasonable question and gotten some excellent and genuine answers...which is exactly what I expected from this board. I've been investing for 15 years and only felt like I've known what I'm doing for the last 5. My most difficult challenges over the years have been to trust my own due diligence and intuition and accept the fact that the market is, for the most part, an unregulated, hostile environment for retail investors. The problem with the financial sector is that there exists not one scintilla of business ethics (I believe the phrase is an oxymoron).
Somewhere, someone determined that "caveat emptor" was a Latin phrase granting absolution for all scandalous financial misdeeds done in the name of greed, rather than the sound advice it was intended to be. Much is made of the idea of market efficiency and the idea that, in time, the right and just outcome will happen. But free market zealots, who tend to be those who are gaining chips unfairly, overlook the main flaw in their argument, which is that market efficiency assumes a level playing field where both buyer and seller come to the table with the same opportunities to consider the merits of an exchange and do the transaction--or not. In other words, the risks and rewards are assumed to be known or knowable to both parties. But in the US Stock Market, there is fundamentally no regulation of manipulation by traders. The idea that a market can be efficient when a large portion of the shares being traded are not even actual shares is so flawed and outrageous that even Lewis Carroll refused to include a story about it in his fairy tales.
Although I've held Mannkind shares since around 2004, I must confess that the successful short attack prior to the AdCom last year suckered me into selling half of my shares, which I ended up re-purchasing at a higher price, of course, not to mention the tax event it created. Sure, I had a gain, but what I lost for a time was self-respect for having gotten suckered into an emotional act that even I knew it was happening and that I'd probably regret. I did regret it. This was capitulation at its worst. Lessons: Emotion can eat reason for lunch. Step away from the computer when you feel your anxiety increasing. Trust your intuition and due diligence.
As we all know, the vote was not even close, and I chastised myself for weeks over becoming too emotionally tied to an investment and acting against my intuition out of fear, uncertainty and doubt (the primary weapons of miscreants). If one knows the history of Mannkind and has been a long investor, it's difficult not to become absorbed to the extent that one begins regarding oneself as part of that story.
At this point, the risk reward profile for MNKD looks very good, and I cannot imagine a long term play with more potential. Yet, because of the $$$ at stake, there are skillful miscreants at work, since greed knows no behavioral boundaries, especially without meaningful accountability. The MNKD story thus ends up getting portrayed as a classic theme of good struggling against evil- with those on the side of good having their hands tied behind their backs.
As long as you are not trading on margin or betting your house, relationship, or kid's college education on the success of the investment, I think holding MNKD shares long, acquiring extra shares with spare cash on dips (up to a pre-determined limit that is based on what you can afford to lose), and then not watching the share price everyday is a good strategy and one that I will be following (resolutely now). I personally think any entry price below $7.50 is OK. Buying and selling this stock, given its vagaries, the cost of commissions and the tax event consequences, just does not make good sense to me. Your risk tolerance and situation may vary.
Good fortune to you,
Chris C
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Post by kc on Mar 1, 2015 18:02:08 GMT -5
My personal view is hold as the best is yet to come in the next 6 to 12 months. I expect Sanofi to buy shares in Mannkind like they have with other partners. Lest I be cast out I'll preface by saying I am long MNKD and really do believe Afrezza will be a blockbuster. I also dont have much investing experience so this may serve as a general investing question. Talking now extremely short term (4-6 weeks) do you hold your position even if the price action looks bad. Looking at the chart from about 8 weeks back we look like we're in an extremely bearish trend right now. That coupled with the apparent manipulation that's gone on here and I think MNKD is going to have a hard time holding even this price level. It looks to me like the price is head back to 6, and if it cant hold that level, all the way back to 5.25 range. I guess my question is do you sell all or part and buy back lower, or simply add on dips; are either of these strategies superior to the other? |
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 1, 2015 23:33:46 GMT -5
Chris-C, your post above, is excellent! Especially your third paragraph:
"Although I've held Mannkind shares since around 2004, I must confess that the successful short attack prior to the AdCom last year suckered me into selling half of my shares, which I ended up re-purchasing at a higher price, of course, not to mention the tax event it created. Sure, I had a gain, but what I lost for a time was self-respect for having gotten suckered into an emotional act that even I knew it was happening and that I'd probably regret. I did regret it. This was capitulation at its worst. Lessons: Emotion can eat reason for lunch. Step away from the computer when you feel your anxiety increasing. Trust your intuition and due diligence."
The above is the absolute essence of speculative investing, is in not? So many times I've acted impetuously early in the morning, not so much on this stock, but plenty of others. I would say I regretted it 75% of the time. And like you say, you know you're doing wrong, but you do it anyway!
Curious, though, about the below statement:
"...not watching the share price everyday is a good strategy and one that I will be following (resolutely now)." Chris, that doesn't include not reading and/or visiting the board everyday, does it?
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Post by bospenc on Mar 2, 2015 1:52:20 GMT -5
That was my plan (to hold no matter what) but I sold the bulk of my shares (58k) on Thursday @ $6.79. I did keep 5k shares and have no plans of ever selling them.
I will buy back the shares I sold (slowly and over time) but I need to see a bottom form first.
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Post by jpg on Mar 2, 2015 3:03:56 GMT -5
That was my plan (to hold no matter what) but I sold the bulk of my shares (58k) on Thursday @ $6.79. I did keep 5k shares and have no plans of ever selling them. I will buy back the shares I sold (slowly and over time) but I need to see a bottom form first. I have no problem with you selling your shares obviously (it's your money...) but I am curious as to why you sold? What specifically happened Thursday? I presume you won't mind sharing as you did share the above information... |
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Post by gomnkd on Mar 2, 2015 8:17:20 GMT -5
I would not speculate as to where it trades now, or where it bottoms out. It is hard to fathom Mr.Markets mood.
I had sold before only because I wasn't sure how much stock they would sell to continue trials. I was unsure of trial outcomes. Now it is different. If you believe in the product it would be unwise to sell unless you've other stocks to invest.
The dilution issue is resolved.
Chances of Mannkind making amateurish mistakes are nil as Sanofi is in charge.
If market catches wind of trend and growth, it'll price in fast. It'll be to late to jump in. If afrezzauser is one of sparks, there are already few fires. Soon there'll be a conflagration where shorts will get burned.
This is the time to sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. Keep an eye on pt feedback and watch for signs of trouble.
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Post by kball on Mar 2, 2015 8:56:42 GMT -5
The other thing to note with volatile stocks is one "always" has to expect a 40% decline at some point. For some reason or another.
And lots of 25% corrections.
Some sleepless nights. Some gray hairs.
Sometimes much of both
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Post by pktrump on Mar 2, 2015 9:19:06 GMT -5
My opinion is the most important part of any investing strategy is conviction and investing in what you know.
Conviction is formed over a long period of time and keeps you in when external events (the enviroment) is screaming at
you to sell/give up.
The pps does not change the market opportunity or the pharmokinetics
of AFZ.
AF, the Street, and the Fools dont change the inherent benefits/advantages of AFZ either.
Timing is incredibly difficult and therefore options or trying to time the bottom or the top are inherently risky.
I find comfort in knowing what I own and why.
I'm watching with great interest social media and new users responses and experiences with AFZ in hopes Type I and II Diabetics
experiences: my hope is AFZ users will continue to reconfirm my conviction.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 2, 2015 9:23:29 GMT -5
When it comes to timing the market, I know nothing...NOTHING! But I hear that Colonel Klink fancies himself to be a day trader and he usually loses more than he wins.
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Post by Chris-C on Mar 2, 2015 10:30:37 GMT -5
Chris-C, your post above, is excellent! Especially your third paragraph: "Although I've held Mannkind shares since around 2004, I must confess that the successful short attack prior to the AdCom last year suckered me into selling half of my shares, which I ended up re-purchasing at a higher price, of course, not to mention the tax event it created. Sure, I had a gain, but what I lost for a time was self-respect for having gotten suckered into an emotional act that even I knew it was happening and that I'd probably regret. I did regret it. This was capitulation at its worst. Lessons: Emotion can eat reason for lunch. Step away from the computer when you feel your anxiety increasing. Trust your intuition and due diligence." The above is the absolute essence of speculative investing, is in not? So many times I've acted impetuously early in the morning, not so much on this stock, but plenty of others. I would say I regretted it 75% of the time. And like you say, you know you're doing wrong, but you do it anyway! Curious, though, about the below statement: "...not watching the share price everyday is a good strategy and one that I will be following (resolutely now)." Chris, that doesn't include not reading and/or visiting the board everyday, does it? Baba Thanks for your comment! I agree it is always best to think twice before pressing the trade button. I'm convinced that the hedge funds have an algorithm that can examine trade data and discern if the ask is being chased based on the origin of a bid and the time between changed bids. I also believe the rules should be changed so that if I place a conditional stop loss order with my broker, no one can access that instruction except the broker and the trader. I'm told that the information is available beyond those two parties. Does anyone know if that's accurate? (I discontinued doing stop losses years ago after experiencing a couple of unplanned sales during short raids). It seemed odd to me that they were able to drop the price to the exact level that would trigger my stop loss order, then the price climbed higher. My statement about not watching the share price was intended to convey that I'm not going to attribute much meaning to the inevitable swings in the share price that will occur before sales demonstrate to the street sheeple that this is a solid investment. A 10% (or greater) drop can be achieved relatively easily now, it seems, and it has no meaning unless there is a material event behind it. This board is an invaluable (and necessary) part of my investment strategy. If there is a better place to get reliable well vetted information, I have yet to find it- including through paid newsletters I subscribe to that hold this stock. Who knows, perhaps those writers may be getting some of their information here as well!  GLTA Chris C |
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