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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2015 12:37:24 GMT -5
 So, this is an example of what I do as I go along in a situation like we're in with afrezza. I realize this will make a lot of folks angry because it's early, the data isn't verified yet, and of course comparing exubera to afrezza makes many a persons blood boil. I acknowledge and would like to say - chill - it's just a perspective that you can dismiss or consider. Either way, this is my perspective. Disclaimers: Afrezza Projected sales is just that and the line graph is a standard trend line demonstrating even growth over time. Reality isn't this clean and that's acknowledged. However, I use it merely as a guide - if afrezza starts blowing away sales then it will show on the graph. If it doesn't, it will show on the graph. So who cares where I start or what kind of trend line we use as an initial benchmark? I don't.....because it doesn't matter yet. However, I selected 40 million as the goal for 2015 (of course we can pick whatever trend line we like - doesn't matter - it's a starting point not a decision point yet), created a growth curve that gets us there with the assumption that each script has a gross value of $287/script. Using $287/script requires us to sell about 151k scripts this year. When we find out more data, this simple approach can be updated with that information. And so it goes. My commentary My view isn't ruled by this simple tracking. It's just one of many snapshots that I use for myself as I go along with various investments where this type of approach may help. My graphs are complicated and detailed but I also keep simple ones in motion to help cut through all the details. I've graphed out other drugs with their first year script numbers as well and after having done that for years it's amazing how similar blockbusters behave in their first few years. To answer the question of whether I'm going to post all that info, the answer is no. Took me years of work accumulating, saving, breaking down.....hard to understand it all unless you put the time in to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the process and put the work in to mentally understand the bigger picture. So I'm not going to dump that data out there for novices to flounder over. I'll just KISS it for now. Having said that, this is what the almighty analyst are doing. They have sophisticated models and more staff but in the end, they are taking what we all have available, running it through their models, putting their agenda to it, and putting it out there as professional analysis. With RBC coming out with a projection of sales this year being 5 mil, go back to the graph and see what gets us to 5 mil in sales and what you'd find is that it would take about 20k scripts with a very modest increase in weekly scripts (nothing like the 40 mil trend line) from today forward (it graphs with scripts at 230, 245, 260, etc until the end of the year). It almost suggest that afrezza won't sell much more than what is being sold right now each week......200-300 scripts per week for quite a stretch this year. I don't personally believe that's going to be our results this year, but, apparently RBC does. All comments, questions, insults welcome. If you're going to insult, try to put a rationale to it explaining your position. We all can learn when explained and discussed. |
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Post by thsloppy on Apr 17, 2015 12:57:51 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be rude or insensitive but I for one absolutely think this comparison is absolutely worthless. I hate the whole concept both here and on YMB. This simply tells me after 11 weeks we are slightly better or equal to something that failed miserably. A more worthwhile comparison is what are the script levels we need to a) receive our milestones, b) fund our cash position ourselves, c) turn profitable. Those are the only timelines and comparisons I'm interested in. At this pace, neither of those 3 are bound to happen in my lifetime. Things need to improve dramatically and soon.
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Post by gomnkd on Apr 17, 2015 13:10:11 GMT -5
All these highfalutin analysis, financial mumbo-jumbo, tweets, blogs, scripts etc make me nauseous. Don't show me a lengthy post with a table/graph that needs a magnifying glass to read. Tell me when it'll reach 10 bagger so that I can get rich and live a life. This is what I need. A simple graph Y axis = Bagger (1-10), X axis time line in years.  PS: when I say 10 bagger, it is from current price. Not from $0.5 |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 17, 2015 13:21:00 GMT -5
Want $50(ish) a share. We need to capture 2% of world diabetic market (300M) or 20% of the US market (30M) by my last pps calculations using P/E of 18.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2015 13:24:15 GMT -5
To answer your questions, script levels needed to receive milestones - we don't know (as I'm sure you know that) so when we know, I can update my info as well. To reach cash positive - yep, but the level of assumptions are too much and way beyond just this simple comparison tracking along with needing more info.
But bear in mind that, imho of course, I see it as completely relevant because regardless of the science (no insult intended to anyone) or how well it works (again, no insult to anyone) OR how much people need afrezza (which is a different analysis and goal - I'm an investor not a care giver and again, no insult to anyone), it is all about sales. The science, technosphere, possibilities, buyouts.....at this moment in time the relationship with sano is about afrezza, mnkd needs cash, and cash will only come from sales. No sales - no cash. We all know what happened to exubera, so for me it's just an example of the bottom line - afrezza must do better than exubera or it won't even make "niche" status.
The graph stinks. I get it. It's not what I want to look at and I'm sure other longs stressing over red in their account doesn't want to look at it this way either. The heavens know I would prefer to see a seriously straight line upwards to the sky. But this is what we're getting and this is what we have to work with. This is what wall street is looking at and this basic graph demonstrates why we're getting downgrades and reduced revenue estimates. All of it impacts the SP and all of it impacts future investment decisions. We can discuss science and split hairs all day long but none of that matters - sales matter and I focus in on what matters most in my investments.
We all have a list of what can go right with MNKD including things like EU approval, technosphere announcements, what's going on with that pile of shares sitting in NY for sano, etc But none of that has a cash value yet. When it does, all this goes out the door and redone based on the new information. But it's not in the bank yet - afrezza sales are real cash, all the rest is TBD.
Last point - Regarding healthcare and benefits and need for diabetics? Different discussion for me. A small part of me sees the social benefit and the medical benefit of afrezza to diabetics but the majority of me invests to make profits.
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Post by me on Apr 17, 2015 13:53:32 GMT -5
created a growth curve that gets us there with the assumption that each script has a gross value of $287/script. Using $287/script requires us to sell about 151k scripts this year. When we find out more data, this simple approach can be updated with that information. And so it goes. First of all, I'm with sloppy above in that this graph/analysis really doesn't add to our guesstimate of reality. I appreciate that you provided your assumptions above. I understand (probably better than you believe) the importance of beginning with basic assumptions that can always be tweaked later - it's important to set a 2 or 3 SD parameter limitation to then build on with further assumptions. The issues I have with your presentation are threefold: 1. You are using a $287/script value. I don't know if you're trying to be slick doing this because you think you can quote many sources (to include me on another board) that this is the value, but I'm not taking your bait here. For someone who's comfortable with throwing data onto a graph, it appears you've inconveniently forgotten to correct the script count/script value relationship, even though you know good and well the Symphony script counts do not discriminate between 30 DS and 90 DS scripts. Even if one were not aware of that, surely you could read the price/script numbers in Liane's charts and figure that out. So right off the bat, I wonder why a "good analyst" would miss that obvious point. Your "accidental oversight" of this means that your script value is 40% understated. 2. You continue to compare Afrezza to Exubera (is this a fixation you have?). Generally, when one seeks comparators, it's because the subjects exhibit many common characteristics that would allow assumptions to be made about the future of Subject A, based upon the past of Subject B. I fail to understand the "many common characteristics" of your comparator to Afrezza. I see only another swipe at Afrezza thinking that it should be compared to Exubera. 3. Your analysis makes no accommodation for the impact of samples. "But we don't know how many samples have been distributed to docs/by docs/used by patients." You're correct. But you do know how to set those parameter limitations with wide enough SD's to then tweak them as you go along...but you didn't do that. Maybe you weren't aware there were samples being distributed? Maybe you weren't aware that SNY had requested additional samples to meet their needs (whatever they were)? Or maybe you just decided to ignore the man behind the curtain and hope others would as well. While I cannot speak for others, your analysis would be more valuable if you addressed (1) and (3) above, and then found a proper comparator. Otherwise, I'm inclined to consider this post as another of your very subtle (but not subtle enough) attempts to cast aspersions on Afrezza. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 17, 2015 14:03:18 GMT -5
I think the thing that is quite clear at this point is that something is holding up a normal launch and that there are very few new doctors that have started prescribing. Thinking that Rx numbers should take off as with a normal launch under that circumstance is comparing apples and oranges. How far below the non relevant curve we are really isn't of great interest to me. Of interest is why so few doctors are now prescribing. It seems it is either by design or by serious problem. I'm still a believer that this is the strategy of SNY for one reason or another (formulary access plan, getting key docs on board first, or whatever).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2015 14:15:09 GMT -5
I think the thing that is quite clear at this point is that something is holding up a normal launch and that there are very few new doctors that have started prescribing. Thinking that Rx numbers should take off as with a normal launch under that circumstance is comparing apples and oranges. How far below the non relevant curve we are really isn't of great interest to me. Of interest is why so few doctors are now prescribing. It seems it is either by design or by serious problem. I'm still a believer that this is the strategy of SNY for one reason or another (formulary access plan, getting key docs on board first, or whatever). "By design or a serious problem". I'm going with "by design" at the moment. Sano knew exubera and bailed. Sano buying into afrezza is huge even if the upfront cash price wasn't as high as I had hoped it would be. I'm going with "by design" for other reasons including sano knowing what happened with selling exubera and I am on the side of them knowing how to do it better (even if our first 11 weeks of scripts don't show that). I'm thinking they are dumping free samples everywhere, we all know endo's will be slow to adopt (been stated over and over in so major articles going back years and years....not hard to read it online for yourself if you doubt it). Unlike pfizer, sano knows diabetes so I'm not concerned about sano shelving it anytime soon (this year). I'm hoping sano is "educating" the docs like crazy and working with insurance companies for the best coverage they can get - hopefully we'll get some color on that come the May CC with sano. And if all that's true, then when DTC hits the airways we should see a serious increase in scripts. If that happens, then we'll have new trends to follow. |
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Post by james on Apr 17, 2015 14:50:49 GMT -5
The notion that significant quantities of samples are being distributed is simply false. There is no evidence of that. I've have not read any user comment that suggests they have received more than a couple of sample packs. If it were in any way true that large quantities of samples were being distributed then scripts would have responded by now. The statement that Sanofi requested an increase in samples leaves no indication for what the initial request was, nor where the availability of these is headed. It may even have been directed towards the expected requirements for a 'full' launch and still be a future element.
As to what is holding the launch back? My take on this is that given patient reports of the level of confusion expressed by doctors, it is not unreasonable that Sanofi is still at a stage of working out how they actually want to go about communicating and educating doctors, pharmacists, insurers, etc. Which clinical benefits should they highlight most? How are they going to get patients and doctors to understand dosing? Do they need to provide spirometry kits? This leaves out the additional discussion of ramping up the supply chain.
The extent of what is occurring right now is test marketing to resolve the questions. There is little, if any, actual sales effort occurring outside of this and nearly all sales that have been achieved to date were initiated by the patient.
We would benefit greatly from some elaboration by management as to the actual marketing plan. Unfortunately, we are probably not going to hear much about it. The #1 thing I would want to hear is not how many sales folks are going to be canvasing and when advertising is going to start, but when a superiority trial will be initiated to clear up the discussion with insurers and doctors. I don't discount that this may already be progressing somehow out of our view, although I don't know how it would be possible.
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Post by afrizzle on Apr 19, 2015 8:26:31 GMT -5
The notion that significant quantities of samples are being distributed is simply false. There is no evidence of that. I've have not read any user comment that suggests they have received more than a couple of sample packs. If it were in any way true that large quantities of samples were being distributed then scripts would have responded by now. The statement that Sanofi requested an increase in samples leaves no indication for what the initial request was, nor where the availability of these is headed. It may even have been directed towards the expected requirements for a 'full' launch and still be a future element. As to what is holding the launch back? My take on this is that given patient reports of the level of confusion expressed by doctors, it is not unreasonable that Sanofi is still at a stage of working out how they actually want to go about communicating and educating doctors, pharmacists, insurers, etc. Which clinical benefits should they highlight most? How are they going to get patients and doctors to understand dosing? Do they need to provide spirometry kits? This leaves out the additional discussion of ramping up the supply chain. The extent of what is occurring right now is test marketing to resolve the questions. There is little, if any, actual sales effort occurring outside of this and nearly all sales that have been achieved to date were initiated by the patient. We would benefit greatly from some elaboration by management as to the actual marketing plan. Unfortunately, we are probably not going to hear much about it. The #1 thing I would want to hear is not how many sales folks are going to be canvasing and when advertising is going to start, but when a superiority trial will be initiated to clear up the discussion with insurers and doctors. I don't discount that this may already be progressing somehow out of our view, although I don't know how it would be possible. The consensus of sample quantities being significant was in my opinion based on the comment by management that they ran out and had to make more than they planned (sorry I don't have the exact quote handy) I've got mixed feelings about knowing the marketing plan. I'd love to know it if it was just me that was being clued in (kidding), but the company obviously doesn't want it in the public domain. I do wish management would communicate more but being sued by shareholder's may have put a damper on that. My understanding of the whole soft launch thing was that it was to have a 1/4 to 1/2 year timeline. We're 11 weeks in, so we shouldn't have too much longer before we'll find out what the marketing will look like. I'm still hanging my hat on Sanfoi's initial sales target announcement of 3.1 million patients. Lastly, I really enjoy seeing the various approaches to valuation, sales, or script counts. Thanks to all who are willing to put their graphs on the site for critique. I'm a big fan of the Socratic method and it's a fun way to pass the time while we wait for the blockbuster train. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 9:41:22 GMT -5
afrizzle said:
"I really enjoy seeing the various approaches to valuation, sales, or script counts."
Couldn't agree more. For me this is a major bonus of the internet as a whole and, more specifically, to forums just like this one. The sharing of ideas is powerful assuming one has an open mind.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 20, 2015 9:46:04 GMT -5
Afrizzle, 3.1 million patients by what date?
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