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Post by mnholdem on Jun 30, 2015 8:37:35 GMT -5
I posted this thought elsewhere, but this seems a better thread to elaborate.
I'm of the opinion that Afrezza is making little profit when you consider that Sanofi is heavily subsidizing patients whose insurers either don't cover Afrezza or charge a ridiculous co-pay. Although I have estimated the profit margin for Afrezza to be 75%-85% at its current premium and before marketing expenses, I am of the opinion that Sanofi will not be taking the proverbial gloves off until several major insurers elevate Afrezza to Preferred / Tier 2 levels.
Again, this is my own opinion and I have no solid evidence to support what I'm proposing, but it's not so difficult to imagine Sanofi wisely focusing its spend on specific objectives. First adopters are providing valuable evidence supporting the positive results Afrezza users are experiencing in regard to their A1c levels.
This anecdotal evidence may be extremely valuable towards convincing 3rd party payers to list Afrezza at Tier 2 / Preferred status. It may also be used to convince physicians of the advantages of prescribing Afrezza to their patients. This is of tremendous value. Why? Because most diabetics will listen to their doctor before believing yet "another new drug" commercial. There will be (and have been) exceptions where a PWD "fired" their Endo and sought their Afrezza prescription elsewhere, but realistically this is an anomaly. Many patients place absolute trust in their doctor.
Let me put this another way: Does it really make sense for Sanofi/MannKind to spend multiple $millions airing TV advertisements while Afrezza is still a Tier 3 drug? Does it make sense to get thousands of diabetics REALLY excited about Afrezza, only to have them later be denied coverage by their insurance company or to be told by a physician who doesn't know much about Afrezza that they want to wait to prescribe "until this drug has a little more time" to prove itself? Matt said that Sanofi is now targeting PCP's "in a big way" [paraphrased] and there are approximately 140,000 PCP/GPs in the U.S. Each one of these physicians is a face-to-face DTC "advertisement" and the advocate that the patient will most likely listen to.
Meanwhile, Afrezza is proving itself. The A1c data being provided by the early adopters who blog, and the physicians reporting results to Sanofi (which we don't hear much about) will provide Sanofi with the evidence it needs to get Afrezza promoted to a Preferred / Tier 2 diabetes treatment.
Then, and ONLY then, will the gloves come off. Right now, I'm thinking that by late September, MNKD investors will be astounded by the volume of scripts being written for Afrezza.
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Post by tmann on Jun 30, 2015 9:20:52 GMT -5
Ladies and Gentlemen
would you help me proof read. I am tired. My partner is missing, and there are some very angry people out there.
Fellow Journalists -
We're writing a story about criminal short sellers destroying little biotch companies for Rolling stone. Crimals who call themselve "journalists."
We requested an interview with one of the suspect a "financial journalist," Adam Feuerstein, who with his friend Jim Cramer, is on a list of "finacial journalst" and a pisspot hedge fund who appear to be the main culprits.
We have all of that evidence, and we'll put that and the whole story in our upcoming story in Rolling Stone.
We asked Adam Feuerstein for an interview, wanted to ask why he wrote negative articles that we're even close to true, over and over, about Afrezza a new type of inhalable insulin that users are raving about on twitter. About how it lowers Aic numbers and glucose meter reading are potested, diabetics and their families are shouting it all over.
Holy Crap the stuff saves lives!
We requested an interview with Adam Feuerstein, "financial journalist" a a big star over at a seedy on line tout sheet called The Street.
We sent Adam Feuerstein of "The Street" a request for an interview, and he was abusive and insulting.
I suppose that's what caught Jasmine's eye. Jasmine St Claire, did, inadvertently, what in ten years the SEC could not do.
Just by being a decent person. Just by 'staring' a tweet she put criminals who prey on our sickest and weakest out of business.
I think that's very cool. So do you.
THIS BELOW IS WHAT THE ARE SAYING NOW. PLEASE HELP RAISE AWARENESS
DeadCatBill and Ari Lewis favorited a Tweet you were mentioned in
23h: @tedmann You’re an idiot. Bother someone else with your $MNKD stock pumping. Not impressed.
DeadCatBillAri Lewis
Ted Mann @tedmann now
@adamfeuerstein
The lovely lady who just put a star on the tweet is famous. I'm laughing my ass off right now, because she has 9M followers
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@adamfeuerstein
Those bikers have a prickly sense of honor. If you kept this product of the market, those diabetic member s
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@adamfeuerstein
They think you maybe tried to kill Hell's Angels. Don't believe any chapter on earth would tolerate that. Fuck no. .
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@adamfeuerstein
They kick your as for even thinking that.
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@adamfeuerstein
So we'll say it was only you that was thinking that. Because I choose to live in the world. But a better world. - U
CC FOX NEWS & VICE
Ted Mann
@tedmann
@kcphaeton @adamfeuerstein @natesnotes @cvpayne A lot of people like justice they can laugh at Adam. Criminal fall hard when people are hurt
Life is hard right now, for all of us. People who hurt our weakest most vulnerable fellow citizens for money and go unpunished for so long, that makes us feel terrible. About ourselves, about the state of our country. It took a porn actress and the Hell's Angels to teach us to remember as individual and a country we should try to do what's right, not for some of us. For all of us.
Or change United State to Jim Cramer's Junkyard Hell. That would look good on a glob with a light bulb inside.
Jim Cramer and his friends junkyard Hell. They blind and main diabetics for profit and the rest of us watch. No. I think we're all of us better than that. We don't have to, this time, again. look on and say, "they're just too big, they have too much money, they'll ruin our careers, there's nothing we can do?"
I know honest financial journalists at the Washington Post, and other publication who have written about these people many times. Nothing happens. Well it's gonna happen now. Mark Mitchell, formerly editor of Columbia Journalism Review. Mark wrote this very story.
Then a hedge fund donated money, Mark got a few death threats and had to leave. Nice huh? Adam's a tough character.
It's time isn't it? Fellow journalists?
Tweet Evan, or Jasmine, Mann has a day job, producing Homeland for FOX he's a tired old NY Hack. Mann will be there to talk to Cramer when you people set that up.
Looking forward to meeting you all.
Ted Mann
Evan Wright
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Post by peppy on Jun 30, 2015 9:47:08 GMT -5
From the JPM conference call, Quote: they (Sanofi) are responsible for sales distribution and all the things -- reimbursement, management, and all the things they have armies of people to deal with. We (Mannkind) remain responsible for manufacturing and further product development. So this is sort of how the responsibilities breakout.
So where are we? As I mentioned, we launched in February, so we're kind of at the -- sort of in between the first two dots on this chart. So we have the early launch. The next phase will be to go into DTC advertising, start thinking about ex-US launches, and bringing the margins up a bit by introducing Sanofi-manufactured insulin. So that would be the next step here and we are right on the brink of all those things.
So what have we seen so far? The prescription uptake, for a variety of reasons, has been a little bit modest so far. But I think we are right on the brink of changing that.
It's very active and the buzz is increasing and increasingly positive. We saw that also at ADA, by the way, just a few weeks ago; a lot of buzz about the product, a lot of exposure. And so I think things are on the brink of turning around.
But stay tuned. I think we are on the brink of some pretty interesting things.
MNHoldem; To your point, CC quote, "And finally, we got a lot of questions about this DTC advertising. So this is a product, obviously, that seems like it would lend itself to DTC advertising. Most large pharma companies, by tradition, don't do that in their first six months of launch. It's really a courtesy to the doctors who don't like it when their patients come in and ask about things they haven't heard about yet."
So that's on the brink of kicking off. We've said early Q3; pretty much everybody has interpreted that correctly as being in July. But -- so watch for those. You will see them initially mostly in online and print media. People ask a lot about TV. I think that is in the cards and there will be some production efforts this year, but at best, you will see later in the year. So we're talking print and online things.
We are on the brink of a lot of stuff here. I know this has been something of battleground stock and it's been moving around. So I get a lot of questions about that; there's a lot of people that have bet on our not being successful. You can see that in our short interest.
Here we are. We are on the brink of a lot of very interesting things I think at MannKind. We have a really what we still continue to believe is a blockbuster product opportunity in Afrezza.
Here we are. We are on the brink of a lot of very interesting things I think at MannKind. We have a really what we still continue to believe is a blockbuster product opportunity in Afrezza.
Beyond that, we have a lot of opportunities with the Technosphere platform, with some very interesting properties which we think will lend themselves very nicely to a lot of different products. And when those are in process, so stay tuned. We do see that as the future of MannKind Corporation and so it's getting maybe even almost the lion's share of our attention at this point.
And our financial position continues to strengthen, and I feel very confident there
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Jun 30, 2015 15:21:00 GMT -5
Then, and ONLY then, will the gloves come off. Right now, I'm thinking that by late September, MNKD investors will be astounded by the volume of scripts being written for Afrezza. Valid points. But why Sept.? They could start print ads with user results but not sure about TV. Will those print ads draw more flames from the skeptics/haters because not derived from clinical studies? I agree, I don't see SNY throwing everything into DTC until improvment in tier coverage and they have clinical evidence of superiority. They will get ball rolling, but only enough to say we are doing something. Lot of posts about being on brink but brink of what- $6.50/share? Patience. I see diabetics unhappy with current regimen open to Afrezza- the others will take a LOT of convincing. Makes more sense that SNY will wait for present trials to make sure it is throwing good money at TV, MNKD will hang on for dear life and hope it stays above $25mil in cash. Good case scripts don't pick up until this time next year. Something is brewing. AF calling out Proboards, then hate piece. Anti-Afrezza twits on upswing. Rolling stone? Why is there a huge style difference between tmann posts and the article Ted M wrote? People hate certain stocks, doesn't mean mob is behind it. Probably see decline for next two weeks and then jump to $8 around Aug., then rapid decline to $5 when ads not what expected, then repeat...
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Post by peppy on Jun 30, 2015 16:51:51 GMT -5
I believe the "brink" stuff. Why, MNKD should know if they are on the brink. 2nd, It looks to me like Afrezza could be superior. 3rd, I may be an idiot, But I am not so stupid to believe people prefer insulin given subq.
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 30, 2015 21:15:26 GMT -5
Then, and ONLY then, will the gloves come off. Right now, I'm thinking that by late September, MNKD investors will be astounded by the volume of scripts being written for Afrezza. Valid points. But why Sept.? They could start print ads with user results but not sure about TV. Will those print ads draw more flames from the skeptics/haters because not derived from clinical studies? I agree, I don't see SNY throwing everything into DTC until improvment in tier coverage and they have clinical evidence of superiority. Probably see decline for next two weeks and then jump to $8 around Aug., then rapid decline to $5 when ads not what expected, then repeat... Why do I post September as a BIG month? Simply because the typical 6-month post-launch probationary period (which expires during the first week of August for Afrezza) doesn't mean all insurers will be upgrading Afrezza's formularies rating immediately. Sanofi will likely be reaching out to insurers, to be sure, but drug review meetings are scheduled months in advance. Some insurers may review their formularies monthly, others less frequently.
It's critical to get Afrezza rated the same as RAA insulins (Tier 2) or better (Preferred). If D-T-C advertising begins during the first few weeks of July, the length of time for diabetics to get their prescriptions with be 4-8 weeks with an endocrinologist, and only 2-3 weeks with a Primary Care Physician / Family Practice Clinic.
Diabetics will do as the D-T-C ads suggest and "ask your doctor if Afrezza is right for you". Physician and insurer/payer acceptance are the two gates currently holding back the flood of patients who want to give Afrezza a try. These gates are not going to open in 1-2 weeks after the 6-month probation expires. It will take a few months for Afrezza to get listed as a Tier 2 or better on most of the major formularies.
I expect the number of scripts written for Afrezza will begin to increase noticeably in August, and September should be really exciting.
Good Fortune All!
P.S. Most of the "skeptics/haters" you mention have a financial agenda. I really don't think the millions of diabetics who have not yet heard of Afrezza will be paying much attention to whatever AF or those of his ilk publish about this new inhaled insulin.
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Post by afrizzle on Jul 1, 2015 13:25:06 GMT -5
I also believe we are right on the Brinks of things
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 1, 2015 15:34:18 GMT -5
Definitely the kind of Brink that I was thinking about, too.
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Post by harryx1 on Jul 6, 2015 14:58:30 GMT -5
Sat down this weekend to eat at a 4th party and 2 people pull out insulin pens and as they stick themselves I say "have you seen the new inhaled insulin?" One responds with a cold stone face with "you are joking, right?" I say no. They both say "really" at the same time and then become very excited and start asking all kinds of questions about it. I gave them a brief history of it and pointed them to the necessary websites to get more info and they will be speaking to theirs docs at the next appointments about it. One is a type 1 and the other is a type 2.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 6, 2015 16:18:33 GMT -5
Harry, I take it these people do not engage in social networking with other diabetics, nor do they go on line very often just to see if anything's new.
Magazines are unlikely to reach such people, might well require TV, or word of mouth if they hang out with other diabetics or with MNKD investors like you.
I would love to know the percentage of Type 1's and Type 2's that have yet to hear about Afrezza (not inhaled insulin, as at least a few remember Exubera). I suspect MNKD and Sanofi have those stats.
And it would be interesting to conduct a poll of what people here think those percentages are. Posted a poll, check it out, vote early and often.
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Post by BlueCat on Jul 6, 2015 19:50:57 GMT -5
Definitely the kind of Brink that I was thinking about, too. Need more armor.
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BIGWIG
Newbie
Posts: 15
Sentiment: Long
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Post by BIGWIG on Jul 6, 2015 21:16:18 GMT -5
AARP Magazine could be a good vehicle for Afrezza awareness. Looks like 5 1/2 million circulation... costs $136,690 for half page (national distribution). AARP Bulletin reaches 22,000,000 and costs $417,000 for half page. See advertise.aarp.org/aarp-advertising-rates/the-magazine for ad rates
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jul 6, 2015 22:13:48 GMT -5
Harry, I take it these people do not engage in social networking with other diabetics, nor do they go on line very often just to see if anything's new. Magazines are unlikely to reach such people, might well require TV, or word of mouth if they hang out with other diabetics or with MNKD investors like you. I think the VAST majority of diabetics do not go on line to access diabetic sites, nor do they read any of the diabetes related magazines. The ONLY ways they are going learn about Afrezza is from their doctors or from television ads. And most of them will not hear about it from their docs. The importance of DTC tv ads is critical.
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Post by obamayoumama on Jul 6, 2015 22:30:28 GMT -5
Harry, I take it these people do not engage in social networking with other diabetics, nor do they go on line very often just to see if anything's new. Magazines are unlikely to reach such people, might well require TV, or word of mouth if they hang out with other diabetics or with MNKD investors like you. I think the VAST majority of diabetics do not go on line to access diabetic sites, nor do they read any of the diabetes related magazines. The ONLY ways they are going learn about Afrezza is from their doctors or from television ads. And most of them will not hear about it from their docs. The importance of DTC tv ads is critical. We don't need TV ads, I skip through them unless I am watching sports or the news because everything gets DVRed and I skip the ads. We would be better off getting free TV time like the NEWS like Eric's Baltimore NEWS. Free and people watch it and it doesn't have 30 seconds of side effects. Diabetics read Diabtetes Magazines
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Post by trenddiver on Jul 6, 2015 22:45:50 GMT -5
Its time to reopen the discussion on a proposed Superbowl Ad.
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