Likelihood of Success or Failure

[BlueCat]

I think we've collectively covered the counters to the short thesis on this board - and i just reiterated a couple of ST. And I don't see many shorts out there now dissing the science much anymore - I think that one has gone too stale.

So to add to Kastanes assertions here:

1. Mannkind will go bankrupt - UNLIKELY. (Per above)

2. Scripts will not grow (too niche to succeed, etc) - UNLIKELY. Beyond above - Diabetes is a huge market, and this targets the largest share of that market. This scenario depends on #4.

3. MNKD will fail at execution - POSSIBLE - BUT UNLIKELY. Its a small company that's had some missteps - However its backed by a Chair with a solid track record and big picture - they've met their commitments to date.

4. SNY will fail at execution - UNLIKELY. Incompetence from market leader in space? Don't think so. Intentional? Unlikely based on current investments and strategy (e.g. cfield post).


My net - shorts are gaming the stock because they can get away with it near term (and probably longer than even they imagined) and make a ton of money in the process. And no doubt, have some safeties in place.

Some retail shorts probably still disagree with items 1-4, and some large players may agree but have nefarious hopes (e.g. Karp, BP or other foil hat things.)



I'm just still hoping I can manage to wait it out.

[ezrasfund]

There is a lot to say about the short interest in MNKD, but I will just say this. It is a very crowded trade.

[Deleted]

It is obvious that hedge funds that are shorting and putting out misinformation are demoralizing shareholders. Before doing anything reassess the reason you purchased MannKind in the first place. If it because you believe Afrezza will succeed then stop looking continuously at share price, it will cause you to sell. On the other hand, if you purchased shares for a quick trade, it is probably wise to sell.

Have a good weekend everyone.

[stevil]

I'm usually a pretty logical person, but I disagree to an extent that things should be painted so black and white. 

While I understand what you're saying (if I may paraphrase)- believe in the product and remind yourself why you invested in the first place- isn't ALWAYS good advice.

I'm young, so I'm going to hold onto my shares. I'm in medical school right now and I'll be in debt so far up to my eyeballs that anything lost in the stock market during this time is just a drop in the bucket for me. However, for those who have 10k+ or more shares- they stand a lot to lose by believing in the principles that caused them to invest.

Things aren't always what they seem, nor do things always go the way they should. 

A wise investor stays informed on the current goings on and makes adjustments as needed. If I had a significant amount of money in MNKD, I'd likely pull out for now. I'd been keeping an eye on MNKD for awhile, waiting for the right time to jump in. I mistimed it and bought at the high, unfortunately. I thought that the time had finally come and it was now time to soar into the teens. 

Long story short, it may not be a bad idea to pull out for now, put it in something like oil refinery stock, and then buy back in once your money has appreciated somewhere else. Again, I would probably do this my MNKD investment didn't get halved and I had more than $10k to play with.

Something smells rotten right now. Layoffs are never a good thing. That means MNKD went wrong somewhere in their forecasting. If they really expected such a slow roll out, either 1.SNY wasn't upfront and honest about how slow they were going to move or 2.MNKD mismanaged their resources and ran out sooner than they expected. Neither is a good sign. Or, there could be something else going on entirely like the drug just isn't selling as expected, etc. One thing is known- there is no good option to explain layoffs. Are there benefits to layoffs? Yes. But there is no good explanation for a layoff for a business the size of MNKD.

It's really good that you've made up your mind to stay in the stock, come hell or high water, but to insinuate that others have "weak hands" if they don't, isn't really fair. 

I'd encourage everyone to stay as objective as possible. As you stated before, the gamble of a breakout may be higher than losing it all and a decision needs to be made on whether you want to roll the dice or not. But anyone thinking this is anything other than a gamble is simply ill-informed or blinded by their emotion. Right now, MNKD has not proven to be a good investment. The product doesn't make money and the cashflow of the company is less than their liabilities. I would love to be wrong about this- and I'm sure others will jump on me for writing it anyway- but there is no momentum right now for this stock. 

Extremely long story short- A decision must be made about whether you are willing to weigh the risks with the rewards. But let's be fair to all- The odds are against MNKD succeeding. It's up to them to decide if the payout is worth the risk. Whenever I gamble, I like to know what my odds are and what the risk/reward is. We don't even know how much money MNKD can generate if it does become successful. So again, please be fair to all and not call them weak for selling. They are actually the ones who are smart (right now). The ones staying in it (me included) are gambling on getting lucky. 

Call a spade a spade. 

Sorry this was so long. I'm trying to do anything I can not to study. 

[harrys]

Oct 2, 2015 16:30:23 GMT -5 stevil said:

I'm usually a pretty logical person, but I disagree to an extent that things should be painted so black and white. 

While I understand what you're saying (if I may paraphrase)- believe in the product and remind yourself why you invested in the first place- isn't ALWAYS good advice.

I'm young, so I'm going to hold onto my shares. I'm in medical school right now and I'll be in debt so far up to my eyeballs that anything lost in the stock market during this time is just a drop in the bucket for me. However, for those who have 10k+ or more shares- they stand a lot to lose by believing in the principles that caused them to invest.

Things aren't always what they seem, nor do things always go the way they should. 

A wise investor stays informed on the current goings on and makes adjustments as needed. If I had a significant amount of money in MNKD, I'd likely pull out for now. I'd been keeping an eye on MNKD for awhile, waiting for the right time to jump in. I mistimed it and bought at the high, unfortunately. I thought that the time had finally come and it was now time to soar into the teens. 

Long story short, it may not be a bad idea to pull out for now, put it in something like oil refinery stock, and then buy back in once your money has appreciated somewhere else. Again, I would probably do this my MNKD investment didn't get halved and I had more than $10k to play with.

Something smells rotten right now. Layoffs are never a good thing. That means MNKD went wrong somewhere in their forecasting. If they really expected such a slow roll out, either 1.SNY wasn't upfront and honest about how slow they were going to move or 2.MNKD mismanaged their resources and ran out sooner than they expected. Neither is a good sign. Or, there could be something else going on entirely like the drug just isn't selling as expected, etc. One thing is known- there is no good option to explain layoffs. Are there benefits to layoffs? Yes. But there is no good explanation for a layoff for a business the size of MNKD.

It's really good that you've made up your mind to stay in the stock, come hell or high water, but to insinuate that others have "weak hands" if they don't, isn't really fair. 

I'd encourage everyone to stay as objective as possible. As you stated before, the gamble of a breakout may be higher than losing it all and a decision needs to be made on whether you want to roll the dice or not. But anyone thinking this is anything other than a gamble is simply ill-informed or blinded by their emotion. Right now, MNKD has not proven to be a good investment. The product doesn't make money and the cashflow of the company is less than their liabilities. I would love to be wrong about this- and I'm sure others will jump on me for writing it anyway- but there is no momentum right now for this stock. 

Extremely long story short- A decision must be made about whether you are willing to weigh the risks with the rewards. But let's be fair to all- The odds are against MNKD succeeding. It's up to them to decide if the payout is worth the risk. Whenever I gamble, I like to know what my odds are and what the risk/reward is. We don't even know how much money MNKD can generate if it does become successful. So again, please be fair to all and not call them weak for selling. They are actually the ones who are smart (right now). The ones staying in it (me included) are gambling on getting lucky. 

Call a spade a spade. 

Sorry this was so long. I'm trying to do anything I can not to study. 

A game of probabilities, some days the scale seems to tip one way or the other. Ive been saying this for a while in not so many words. I am not one of those that believe in MNKD on "faith", but instead I remain in my position based on simple probability, most days I believe the probability of success vs. failure to be in MNKDs favor. Thank you for sharing your thoughts, I can definitely relate. Maybe we will see less binary "black" vs "white" discussion and more personal insight in the future. 

[jefferson]

Brimley would have loved Afrezza. 

[Deleted]

Ask yourself: has Al Mann done his homework regarding diabetes and Afrezza to wager more than a decade of his life and a billion $

I believe he has and for that reason I am holding.

[stevil]

I'm not disagreeing with you. Al Mann was a large part of the reason I took up a good chunk in the company as well. The guy is brilliant, diligent, and has a proven track record. Unfortunately, he's not the Almighty and there are other factors than just him. Everyone makes mistakes or didn't foresee every variable. 

I'm not trying to dissuade anyone from owning MNKD. My apologies if I'm coming across that way. I'm just trying to level out some of the people who are certain this gamble is going to pay off one day. 

I suppose it's none of my business, but it almost makes me sad? that so many people have put so much money into this company (and keep putting in more). Like I said, I'm not really worried about my investment- I doubled my money the last 3 years so I was essentially playing with house money anyway. As goofy as it sounds, though, I care about the health, wealth, and well-being of others on here and will do my best to help them keep their eyes wide open so they can make rational and objective decisions. 

Best of luck to all. Back to studying :/

[harrys]

Oct 2, 2015 16:53:51 GMT -5 @kastanes said:

Ask yourself: has Al Mann done his homework regarding diabetes and Afrezza to wager more than a decade of his life and a billion $

I believe he has and for that reason I am holding.

Al's not gonna risk the remainder of his fortune and spend money earmarked for his charitable legacy in order to support a publicly traded company, counting on Al to save shareholders is just plain foolish. Al did everything right developing the drug and getting it approved but he's no longer in the wheel house. Wall Street is in full control until they decide they aren't OR Afrezza is able to support its own, whichever comes first. And if Wallstreet seeks to destroy MNKD entirely I believe Mann will take it private in order to guarantee its survival at an extremely low price point.

[sluggobear]

Stevil:
I think your point of view is well taken by those who have been here a while. I am trying to manage my expectations and am sticking with my hefty MNKD investment until the end of the year at least. But your points are well-founded and they were clearly communicated.

I thought I had done significant due diligence before buying. I know now that I missed a few things, including the reticence of endos to transition to new regimens and the higher than expected perception of potential risk to the lungs. I wish MNKD and SNY had managed our expectations for sales a lot better. This is probably too much to expect but something along the lines of: "we don't expect much in the way of sales revenue until at least a few months after DTC has kicked in, assuming that insurance companies have allowed good coverage / placed Afrezza on Tier 2 in their formularies". I would rather they under-promise and over-deliver. I am a bit more optimistic about the Sanofi strategy for driving Afrezza sales after reading the story on execution regarding Sanofi's executive VP Pascale Witz: quarterly.insigniam.com/leadership/how-sanofi-will-roll-out-new-products/

I see now that I got caught up in the cross-fire of irrational exuberance over the drug and the seemingly baseless, biased bashing by just a few authors out there. And I notice your cautiousness and concern for getting bashed, just for making a pretty neutral and justified statement about the potential success of Afrezza. Good luck...

[Deleted]

Oct 2, 2015 17:31:02 GMT -5 harrys said:

Oct 2, 2015 16:53:51 GMT -5 @kastanes said:

Ask yourself: has Al Mann done his homework regarding diabetes and Afrezza to wager more than a decade of his life and a billion $

I believe he has and for that reason I am holding.

Al's not gonna risk the remainder of his fortune and spend money earmarked for his charitable legacy in order to support a publicly traded company, counting on Al to save shareholders is just plain foolish. Al did everything right developing the drug and getting it approved but he's no longer in the wheel house. Wall Street is in full control until they decide they aren't OR Afrezza is able to support its own, whichever comes first. And if Wallstreet seeks to destroy MNKD entirely I believe Mann will take it private in order to guarantee its survival at an extremely low price point.

Has it not always been patients first? This is according to the man himself, big Al. In my opinion Al could really give a rats butt about Wall Street. He's got the cash to bring the hedge funds under control. This in terms of owning more shares and thus lower the shorts available pool from with to draw. But, at least from what I see, nothing has come about. But, patients are having wonderful results, which Big Al loves!

In terms of taking MNKD private, gotta disagree. His charities will have SO MUCH MORE money once traction for Afrezza has taken hold. And in turn, a larger share price.

Lastly, Exubera, good idea, bad design, difficult usage, Afrezza great idea, good design, easily used. Harry. Just a matter of time. Additionally, Sanofi is purposely rolling this out slowly. Once demand reaches a feverish pitch, watch the shorts burning like the trash they are.

[harrys]

Oct 2, 2015 18:07:36 GMT -5 @georgethenite said:

Oct 2, 2015 17:31:02 GMT -5 harrys said:

Al's not gonna risk the remainder of his fortune and spend money earmarked for his charitable legacy in order to support a publicly traded company, counting on Al to save shareholders is just plain foolish. Al did everything right developing the drug and getting it approved but he's no longer in the wheel house. Wall Street is in full control until they decide they aren't OR Afrezza is able to support its own, whichever comes first. And if Wallstreet seeks to destroy MNKD entirely I believe Mann will take it private in order to guarantee its survival at an extremely low price point.

Has it not always been patients first? This is according to the man himself, big Al. In my opinion Al could really give a rats butt about Wall Street. He's got the cash to bring the hedge funds under control. This in terms of owning more shares and thus lower the shorts available pool from with to draw. But, at least from what I see, nothing has come about. But, patients are having wonderful results, which Big Al loves!

In terms of taking MNKD private, gotta disagree. His charities will have SO MUCH MORE money once traction for Afrezza has taken hold. And in turn, a larger share price.

Lastly, Exubera, good idea, bad design, difficult usage, Afrezza great idea, good design, easily used. Harry. Just a matter of time. Additionally, Sanofi is purposely rolling this out slowly. Once demand reaches a feverish pitch, watch the shorts burning like the trash they are.

I agree with your assessment with the exception of Al possibly going THAT route. I wanna emphasize what you said about time "Just a matter of time." given time as an abundant resource, I completely agree. Although I have all the time in the world to wait for this investment to mature, Wall Street is not providing MNKD with that luxury. "Time" will vindicate Afrezza, but I hope it doesn't first sink MNKD. I have a unifying theory on all this and what I believe has and is happening regarding Wall Street and MNKD, but I wouldn't dare share here...

[Deleted]

Oct 2, 2015 18:18:58 GMT -5 harrys said:

Oct 2, 2015 18:07:36 GMT -5 @georgethenite said:

Has it not always been patients first? This is according to the man himself, big Al. In my opinion Al could really give a rats butt about Wall Street. He's got the cash to bring the hedge funds under control. This in terms of owning more shares and thus lower the shorts available pool from with to draw. But, at least from what I see, nothing has come about. But, patients are having wonderful results, which Big Al loves!

In terms of taking MNKD private, gotta disagree. His charities will have SO MUCH MORE money once traction for Afrezza has taken hold. And in turn, a larger share price.

Lastly, Exubera, good idea, bad design, difficult usage, Afrezza great idea, good design, easily used. Harry. Just a matter of time. Additionally, Sanofi is purposely rolling this out slowly. Once demand reaches a feverish pitch, watch the shorts burning like the trash they are.

I agree with your assessment with the exception of Al possibly going THAT route. I wanna emphasize what you said about time "Just a matter of time." given time as an abundant resource, I completely agree. Although I have all the time in the world to wait for this investment to mature, Wall Street is not providing MNKD with that luxury. "Time" will vindicate Afrezza, but I hope it doesn't first sink MNKD. I have a unifying theory on all this and what I believe has and is happening regarding Wall Street and MNKD, but I wouldn't dare share here...

Would love to hear your theory!

[Deleted]

From comments regarding Al, it sounds as if people believe Al worked in a vacuum creating Afrezza without input. Naysayers need to realize Al most likely surrounded himself with many very knowledgeable diabetes / medical scientists and engineers to develop Afrezza. There is no doubt Al is very smart, but to give him all the credit is nonsense.

No man is an island onto himself including Al Mann.

[jpg]

Interesting how extremes in stock price can so cloud thought processes.