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Post by robsacher on Nov 9, 2015 14:39:33 GMT -5
Corey, if your analysis actually turns out to be the course that management has taken, what do you think the outcome will be over the next several weeks? I am in agreement regarding the GS note yesterday...
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 16:31:29 GMT -5
Corey, if your analysis actually turns out to be the course that management has taken, what do you think the outcome will be over the next several weeks? I am in agreement regarding the GS note yesterday... Looks like it's a yes: secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001193125-15-371962%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2015%5C11%5C09%5C&CoName=MANNKIND+CORP&FormType=424B5&RcvdDate=11%2F9%2F2015&pdf= This was filed today. Just now. I think we'll get hit pieces after hit pieces of dilution and death spiral and they're absolutely right to a point. We used cash to pay debt and issued shares at a lower value to replace the cash. The one thing that they'll still be missing is that SNY is committed. Afrezza's efficacy is much better than trials showed. So, if things look up for Afrezza, we'll be ok in the long run. This is worth up to $140M, which would buy them 5ish quarters at current OpEx rate. I'm fine with that as I think Afrezza will take off by then. Thoughts?
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Post by rch51 on Nov 9, 2015 16:55:16 GMT -5
Apparently the offering price is pegged to 97% of the closing price on November 12. Now watch them bash this thing down like a whack a mole between today and then.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 17:41:57 GMT -5
Apparently the offering price is pegged to 97% of the closing price on November 12. Now watch them bash this thing down like a whack a mole between today and then. I'm sure they will -- but we're not going bankrupt anytime soon.
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Post by robsacher on Nov 9, 2015 18:03:42 GMT -5
Not sure of what are Al's other investments but if he makes 10% per year on his remaining billion dollars, that comes to $100 million dollars next year. I would think that that could also come into play beyond the $140 million dollars +/- over the next four or five quarters. I just can't see Al walking away from MannKind. But, Sanofi will have to get Afrezza into preferred insurance tiers in 2016.
I've decided to significantly add to my position. In poker, there's an expression, "in for a dollar, in for a quarter". It means that if you have invested in the hand which you hold because you thought that you had a winning hand, then do not let yourself be bluffed out of your position because adding to your position will cost less than what you already have invested and the potential in which you originally invested is still at play in the game.
Thanks for your analysis today.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Nov 9, 2015 18:09:26 GMT -5
You are playing it long term Rob just as I am. The only question for me is will this company succeed. My answer is Yes. As a result I detach from the short term bs.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 18:17:44 GMT -5
Robert: I thought the CC went fine today. We now know that Tier 2 is a priority, eventually it will happen, and I'm delighted it got a big mention. And, we have some cash again. I fully expect to see a rising script count in the months ahead. That's where all the marbles are on this bad girl right now. Rising script counts will save the day into 2016. Aloha.
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Post by alethea on Nov 9, 2015 19:00:54 GMT -5
Corey, if your analysis actually turns out to be the course that management has taken, what do you think the outcome will be over the next several weeks? I am in agreement regarding the GS note yesterday... Looks like it's a yes: secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001193125-15-371962%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2015%5C11%5C09%5C&CoName=MANNKIND+CORP&FormType=424B5&RcvdDate=11%2F9%2F2015&pdf= This was filed today. Just now. I think we'll get hit pieces after hit pieces of dilution and death spiral and they're absolutely right to a point. We used cash to pay debt and issued shares at a lower value to replace the cash. The one thing that they'll still be missing is that SNY is committed. Afrezza's efficacy is much better than trials showed. So, if things look up for Afrezza, we'll be ok in the long run. This is worth up to $140M, which would buy them 5ish quarters at current OpEx rate. I'm fine with that as I think Afrezza will take off by then. Thoughts? It ain't gonna be $140M at the Close on November 12. Probably closer to $100 million.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 19:14:44 GMT -5
It ain't gonna be $140M at the Close on November 12. Probably closer to $100 million. yup
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Post by patryn on Nov 9, 2015 19:24:36 GMT -5
What I find really distasteful is the way Matt is answering questions through email with very specific and likely misleading answers. For instance, he stated in email that the listing would not result in dilution, but failed to mention that being added to the indexes would result in dilution. Similar to the statement he made earlier about how a specific number of employees were not laid off - but a different number was.
I would much rather have him say that he is not able to answer private questions via email that is not public disclosure of information rather than deliberately misleading answers. That said, this is likely a positive event for MNKD due to the fact that any possibility of bankruptcy is off the table in the next year. We get another year to see how SNY markets and sells Afrezza and that will determine the long term direction of MNKD - not these short term financial games (on both sides).
Oh and in case anyone is wondering, I will continue to add shares on a monthly schedule at roughly the same proportion. I know my own weakness in an emotionally driven market so I set up an investment plan that I do not deviate from in order to make sure I follow it. We have not seen how the story ends, but we get to see a few more chapters to whet our appetites.
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 9, 2015 23:58:16 GMT -5
How could anybody smart enough to draft what you just did be wrong ?? The numbers make sense, and in my opinion, so does the logic. You have my vote. Thank you! Seems plausible. You explained that very well and it made complete sense. It was an easy vote. You are an asset to this board. Oh, and I hit an order @ $2.40 today. Life is good. Good Call Corey
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 10, 2015 10:45:44 GMT -5
Thank you! Seems plausible. You explained that very well and it made complete sense. It was an easy vote. You are an asset to this board. Oh, and I hit an order @ $2.40 today. Life is good. Good Call Corey Thanks rockstarrick! One other thing I was curious about .... hear me out: Here's a quote from Matt from yesterday's call: "We expect that the majority of shares for index fund purchases will be issued directly for MannKind, with remaining demand required to be satisfied by open market purchasers from existing holders to fulfill these ownership requirements. All purchases are expected to be completed within the next week." -- SourceSounds to me like 50M shares might not cut it! ETFs balance on a overall % of their funds, not on a total # of shares basis. Therefore, there are two ways to look at what might happen: In the filing, MNKD says expected amount is up to ~$140M. Now, 50M shares at $2/share is less than at $3/share. At the $2/share, if the ETFs have a percentage holding goal for MNKD (which I'm sure they do), they'll need to buy more than the 50M shares to satisfy the same % holding. So, from the shorts' perspective, knocking down our price is good in that we'll get less capital from the offering, but it's also potentially bad as more than 50,000,000 shares might be gobbled up by the ETFs, and since they're long-term holders and cannot lend them, that'd mean less available shares to short for the shorts. Thoughts?
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Nov 10, 2015 10:56:29 GMT -5
An alternate theory: by decreasing our shareprice they are decreasing our market cap, which would in turn lead to fewer shares being needed for the indices to meet their percentage holding goals. (Credit: Dreamboatcruise)
This was a fascinating way to raise money (or maybe I'm easily fascinated)...while I dislike the uncertainty created by the two-day lag, I am sure Matt has thought it out and am very curious as to how it will play out.
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 10, 2015 11:02:36 GMT -5
You explained that very well and it made complete sense. It was an easy vote. You are an asset to this board. Oh, and I hit an order @ $2.40 today. Life is good. Good Call Corey Thanks rockstarrick! One other thing I was curious about .... hear me out: Here's a quote from Matt from yesterday's call: "We expect that the majority of shares for index fund purchases will be issued directly for MannKind, with remaining demand required to be satisfied by open market purchasers from existing holders to fulfill these ownership requirements. All purchases are expected to be completed within the next week." -- SourceSounds to me like 50M shares might not cut it! ETFs balance on a overall % of their funds, not on a total # of shares basis. Therefore, there are two ways to look at what might happen: In the filing, MNKD says expected amount is up to ~$140M. Now, 50M shares at $2/share is less than at $3/share. At the $2/share, if the ETFs have a percentage holding goal for MNKD (which I'm sure they do), they'll need to buy more than the 50M shares to satisfy the same % holding. So, from the shorts' perspective, knocking down our price is good in that we'll get less capital from the offering, but it's also potentially bad as more than 50,000,000 shares might be gobbled up by the ETFs, and since they're long-term holders and cannot lend them, that'd mean less available shares to short for the shorts. Thoughts? In my opinion, The short side has been wrong in so many ways regarding MNKD that they are now blinded by reality. Cross listing several million non short able shares on the TASE, instead of a second offering on the Nasdaq has delivered a serious blow to the shorts. I think many were counting on the secondary offering to unwind their position. I don't know if the TASE will purchase more shares to reach their %, but it makes perfect sense, so you have my vote again. This will be interesting to watch. Thanks for sharing this Corey Good Luck
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 10, 2015 11:05:14 GMT -5
You explained that very well and it made complete sense. It was an easy vote. You are an asset to this board. Oh, and I hit an order @ $2.40 today. Life is good. Good Call Corey Thanks rockstarrick! One other thing I was curious about .... hear me out: Here's a quote from Matt from yesterday's call: "We expect that the majority of shares for index fund purchases will be issued directly for MannKind, with remaining demand required to be satisfied by open market purchasers from existing holders to fulfill these ownership requirements. All purchases are expected to be completed within the next week." -- SourceSounds to me like 50M shares might not cut it! ETFs balance on a overall % of their funds, not on a total # of shares basis. Therefore, there are two ways to look at what might happen: In the filing, MNKD says expected amount is up to ~$140M. Now, 50M shares at $2/share is less than at $3/share. At the $2/share, if the ETFs have a percentage holding goal for MNKD (which I'm sure they do), they'll need to buy more than the 50M shares to satisfy the same % holding. So, from the shorts' perspective, knocking down our price is good in that we'll get less capital from the offering, but it's also potentially bad as more than 50,000,000 shares might be gobbled up by the ETFs, and since they're long-term holders and cannot lend them, that'd mean less available shares to short for the shorts. Thoughts? Corey, Perhaps I am NOT connecting the dots, but are you implying that, should not the 50,000 shares sell at a price high enough to satisfy the percentage goal that the ETFs must fund, they will need to go to the open market to fulfill the balance of this requirement? Depending upon how much is left, this could have a positive impact?
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