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Post by sweedee79 on Apr 7, 2016 15:50:46 GMT -5
peppy et all, The following is my opinion. I hope you choose not to take it personally or take offense to anything, although the following might be offensive. There is no conspiracy going on with Afrezza. There are no paid bashers for this stock. There might be people who come on here with the intent to rile you all up because you're so passionate about Afrezza and some people really enjoy pushing buttons to get a rise out of people, but I can assure you, even if these minions existed, they're not nearly as plentiful as you think. These "FUDsters" would maybe gain a dollar for their efforts in the stock market if they caused you to sell your shares. MNKD is where it is because Afrezza sales are lacking and we have no real cash flow, and currently, no communicated plan for how we're going to survive past the end of the year. Paid bashers would not be responsible for this. I know the sentiment here is that there is this massive campaign out to smear Afrezza, and while that might be partially true, it's not unique to MNKD. Every company has hit pieces against them. I think you all notice them so much more regarding MNKD because you follow this stock so closely. Every stock that I have followed in the past has people who complain about manipulation, hit pieces, MM corruption, etc. It's just the system we are forced to play in. Where there is money to be made, people will do what it takes to make money. MNKD had a target on its back from the start because the shorts correctly identified all the "FUD" early on. It was much clearer to them long ago than it is to some of us even today. Kudos to them for figuring it out. Shame on some of us for still being too stubborn to try. I think it's dangerous to assume this massive conspiracy exists because it becomes the scapegoat for all the negative things about this stock. Facts and truths have been mislabeled as FUD instead of facts and truths. Sometimes people just express their opinions about things, especially analysts who get paid to do it. The trick is to dissect truth from lies, and so far the MNKD faithful hasn't done a tremendous job of that and the "FUDsters" have. The Street doesn't tell doctors how to prescribe. The Street doesn't tell diabetics not to be interested in inhaled insulin. The Street is the effect of both of those things, not the cause. I'm not saying that this can't all change and we won't have our day in the sun. But I find that good information sometimes falls on deaf ears around here and it's really sad. This board has been interesting in the sense that people have assumed a battleground identity. It's an "us against them" mentality. You're forced to pick a side as either long or short and that stance defines who you are and whether someone will like you or not. You're not allowed to be a hopeful long with questions about how MNKD will solve this issue or that issue that are actually causing you to be a short because you're not seeing enough evidence of effective problem solving from management and/or a viable market for your drug. And heaven forbid, if you make a mistake or miscommunicate a point, you get eaten alive. Ha, can't we all just get along? Can't we all have opinions and have civil discourse? Can't we exchange viewpoints and challenge each other with our assertions? I don't take issue with anyone whose viewpoint is different than mine as long as they have solid reasoning to back up their beliefs. I wish others felt the same... I understand what you are saying when you ask if we can have civil conversations... and yet disagree... we should be respectful of one another .. It is just that we all feel strongly about our opinions I guess...
I cant say for a fact that there is manipulation of this stock going on.. I cant prove that.. but there are people writing articles that are just plain not true... like Adam F ... these articles are obvious hit pieces with outright lies ... it appears these people have an agenda.... We have watched the stock go up and down for no apparent reason... it takes a lot of money to move a stock that much .. so I have inferred a large MM is buying and also shorting the stock.. Perhaps GS ..
The street doesn't tell docs to not prescribe.. nor does it tell patients to not be interested... you are right.. But.. I don't believe that many docs even know about Afrezza .. nor do patients.. The people with diabetes that I have talked to are very interested... Sanofi dropped the ball before we even had a chance... It is common for a drug to start slow in the first year.. to have issues with insurance coverage .. etc.. .. and SNY did barely any advertising ..... I don't know if there was a conspiracy at SNY .... but something wasnt right there because Afrezza is amazing and it works.. it looks to me like SNY barely even tried... and then gave up... they have been in trouble before with accusations of "sandbagging" ... not saying that is what they did... but the whole thing just smells to me ..
I don't think Matt has been able to divulge much information because of the partnership with SNY ... so we don't know who they have been talking to since.. MNKD has been hiring people so it appears they have a plan.. and considering the past 10 years these people aren't the type who give up easily. From everything I have seen lately it doesn't appear like a company getting ready for BK .. we have our technology and we have Afrezza ... both are amazing assets.. The only question I have now is where is the money going to come from ... I am optimistic that they will figure it out .. I am in the camp that BK isn't imminent as some our saying... and Matt has left no indication of imminent BK .. if I am understanding correctly there are ways we can get cash... such as dilution... I don't like that option .. but all we have to do is prove ourselves.. There are people in our camp.. such as Dr. Steven Edelman... There are many positives ... the biggest one being that Afrezza is everything that Dr. Mann said it would be...
Its all speculation... (forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.)
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Post by mnkdnut on Apr 7, 2016 16:04:57 GMT -5
I think Brandicourt came in in Q1 2015, did his thorough strategic review in Q2 and came to the conclusion that the path to post-Lantus success was easier (and less risky) with intense focus on Toujeo and Lixilan. Apidra is already there to cover prandial. Nothing bad about Afrezza, it just would take too much of their resources away to overcome the non-inferior data package, black box warning, and the cost to do the long term lung function study. Afrezza can't just be plugged into a distribution channel backed with ads that say "surprise, it's insulin!". It needs missionaries to convert doctors one by one, and do whatever they can to make sure each new patient experience is a good one. It will have to be a small scale effort, but they need to show that with smart and focused effort, they can convert individual doctors from skeptics to promoters through improved pricing and highly individual training, education and support. Then, scaling up is just a matter of funding - not a matter of whether Afrezza is the real thing or a dud. Cooperative selling with the likes of Dexcom and Vdex will help do things efficiently. I'm sure they have many other go-to-market ideas that they are excited about too. Matt just has to deliver on funding through international distribution rights and TS licensing.
First choice of course would have been for Sanofi to go "all in" with Afrezza and take on the missionary challenge. I don't think Brandicourt felt he had the runway to do that, even if he was a believer (he wasn't, just out of his own arrogance, IMO). Second choice is for Sanofi to give it up, and let MNKD give it their full focus. At least it has a fighting chance. Worst choice would be for Sanofi to have kept it and starved it to a slow but sure death - the terminally neglected stepchild.
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Post by longinvstr on Apr 7, 2016 16:06:52 GMT -5
peppy et all, The following is my opinion. I hope you choose not to take it personally or take offense to anything, although the following might be offensive. There is no conspiracy going on with Afrezza. There are no paid bashers for this stock. There might be people who come on here with the intent to rile you all up because you're so passionate about Afrezza and some people really enjoy pushing buttons to get a rise out of people, but I can assure you, even if these minions existed, they're not nearly as plentiful as you think. These "FUDsters" would maybe gain a dollar for their efforts in the stock market if they caused you to sell your shares. MNKD is where it is because Afrezza sales are lacking and we have no real cash flow, and currently, no communicated plan for how we're going to survive past the end of the year. Paid bashers would not be responsible for this. I know the sentiment here is that there is this massive campaign out to smear Afrezza, and while that might be partially true, it's not unique to MNKD. Every company has hit pieces against them. I think you all notice them so much more regarding MNKD because you follow this stock so closely. Every stock that I have followed in the past has people who complain about manipulation, hit pieces, MM corruption, etc. It's just the system we are forced to play in. Where there is money to be made, people will do what it takes to make money. MNKD had a target on its back from the start because the shorts correctly identified all the "FUD" early on. It was much clearer to them long ago than it is to some of us even today. Kudos to them for figuring it out. Shame on some of us for still being too stubborn to try. I think it's dangerous to assume this massive conspiracy exists because it becomes the scapegoat for all the negative things about this stock. Facts and truths have been mislabeled as FUD instead of facts and truths. Sometimes people just express their opinions about things, especially analysts who get paid to do it. The trick is to dissect truth from lies, and so far the MNKD faithful hasn't done a tremendous job of that and the "FUDsters" have. The Street doesn't tell doctors how to prescribe. The Street doesn't tell diabetics not to be interested in inhaled insulin. The Street is the effect of both of those things, not the cause. I'm not saying that this can't all change and we won't have our day in the sun. But I find that good information sometimes falls on deaf ears around here and it's really sad. This board has been interesting in the sense that people have assumed a battleground identity. It's an "us against them" mentality. You're forced to pick a side as either long or short and that stance defines who you are and whether someone will like you or not. You're not allowed to be a hopeful long with questions about how MNKD will solve this issue or that issue that are actually causing you to be a short because you're not seeing enough evidence of effective problem solving from management and/or a viable market for your drug. And heaven forbid, if you make a mistake or miscommunicate a point, you get eaten alive. Ha, can't we all just get along? Can't we all have opinions and have civil discourse? Can't we exchange viewpoints and challenge each other with our assertions? I don't take issue with anyone whose viewpoint is different than mine as long as they have solid reasoning to back up their beliefs. I wish others felt the same... Stevil: Among your recent expressed concerns: Lilly’s artificial pancreas on the horizon Endless management mistakes Patent expiration Credibility of Afrezza user social media posts Obsolescence via generic encroachment No TS market – MNKD a one trick pony MNKD’s failure to stand is completely isolated and 100% their own doing. There is no oppositional & concerted effort from FDA, BP, GS, M Fool, The Street, etc SNY did not sandbag Afrezza = Afrezza was just not worth their effort Stem cells will cure diabetes “before too long.” Two of your recent summations >>We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death.<< >>And just because the lights are still on in the business doesn't mean it's actually really alive. It just means it hasn't died yet.<< Pervasive pessimism to the point of assuming (patent, etc.) things are worse than they are. Yet, you’re still long on MNKD! If you were my doctor and equally long on my health, I hope you’d not take personally my strong desire to get a second opinion. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 16:08:06 GMT -5
I'll admit, a lot can be left to interpretation. No one really knows all the facts except for maybe MNKD. That was a very good post... And I, like you, hope that there's still enough time for us to try on our own and see if it was really SNY's fault or if they gave up early to quit while they were still ahead. Also, just because SNY didn't think Afrezza was worthwhile doesn't mean that's the truth.... I'm refreshed to hear that the diabetics you're talking to have interest. While the diabetics I know all fit on one hand, they're all pretty content with how their care is being handled and don't want to switch. It's that whole, they don't know how sick they are because they've never felt good idea. I feel like diabetics would probably only listen to people they have good relationships with so the people sharing stories about online discussions probably shouldn't be expected to go any other way. I'd imagine it'd be hard for me to listen to someone who wasn't suffering with my disease tell me how to take my medication. I truly just want a chance... just a chance to really do this thing right. I'm not as trusting of Matt as you are... management has been overly secretive in the past and nothing ever came to fruition. Matt is too skillful with his words to be trusted. It's not a bad thing... it's what you want when your company is doing well, but it's awful when it's not. I have just enough hope left to last until next CC. After that, I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I know the right thing to do would be to capitulate, but I really really want this company to succeed. And for all of you longs who have held out for so long. Forgot about the AF point you'd raised... I can't remember what another poster had said about him, but I vaguely remember someone saying that the beef between AF and MNKD was something personal. I think it might have been in regards to Al. But even with that, another one of the companies I'm invested in has extremely strong fundamentals (unlike us  ) but has hit piece after hit piece come out against it for who knows why. It beats earnings every quarter and carries a hefty dividend on top. But it's still down almost 20% from its high at the beginning of last year. The whole market is corrupt. Even the products that sell well and produce great margins are struggling in this market. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 16:20:03 GMT -5
peppy et all, The following is my opinion. I hope you choose not to take it personally or take offense to anything, although the following might be offensive. There is no conspiracy going on with Afrezza. There are no paid bashers for this stock. There might be people who come on here with the intent to rile you all up because you're so passionate about Afrezza and some people really enjoy pushing buttons to get a rise out of people, but I can assure you, even if these minions existed, they're not nearly as plentiful as you think. These "FUDsters" would maybe gain a dollar for their efforts in the stock market if they caused you to sell your shares. MNKD is where it is because Afrezza sales are lacking and we have no real cash flow, and currently, no communicated plan for how we're going to survive past the end of the year. Paid bashers would not be responsible for this. I know the sentiment here is that there is this massive campaign out to smear Afrezza, and while that might be partially true, it's not unique to MNKD. Every company has hit pieces against them. I think you all notice them so much more regarding MNKD because you follow this stock so closely. Every stock that I have followed in the past has people who complain about manipulation, hit pieces, MM corruption, etc. It's just the system we are forced to play in. Where there is money to be made, people will do what it takes to make money. MNKD had a target on its back from the start because the shorts correctly identified all the "FUD" early on. It was much clearer to them long ago than it is to some of us even today. Kudos to them for figuring it out. Shame on some of us for still being too stubborn to try. I think it's dangerous to assume this massive conspiracy exists because it becomes the scapegoat for all the negative things about this stock. Facts and truths have been mislabeled as FUD instead of facts and truths. Sometimes people just express their opinions about things, especially analysts who get paid to do it. The trick is to dissect truth from lies, and so far the MNKD faithful hasn't done a tremendous job of that and the "FUDsters" have. The Street doesn't tell doctors how to prescribe. The Street doesn't tell diabetics not to be interested in inhaled insulin. The Street is the effect of both of those things, not the cause. I'm not saying that this can't all change and we won't have our day in the sun. But I find that good information sometimes falls on deaf ears around here and it's really sad. This board has been interesting in the sense that people have assumed a battleground identity. It's an "us against them" mentality. You're forced to pick a side as either long or short and that stance defines who you are and whether someone will like you or not. You're not allowed to be a hopeful long with questions about how MNKD will solve this issue or that issue that are actually causing you to be a short because you're not seeing enough evidence of effective problem solving from management and/or a viable market for your drug. And heaven forbid, if you make a mistake or miscommunicate a point, you get eaten alive. Ha, can't we all just get along? Can't we all have opinions and have civil discourse? Can't we exchange viewpoints and challenge each other with our assertions? I don't take issue with anyone whose viewpoint is different than mine as long as they have solid reasoning to back up their beliefs. I wish others felt the same... Stevil: Among your recent expressed concerns: Lilly’s artificial pancreas on the horizon Endless management mistakes Patent expiration Credibility of Afrezza user social media posts Obsolescence via generic encroachment No TS market – MNKD a one trick pony MNKD’s failure to stand is completely isolated and 100% their own doing. There is no oppositional & concerted effort from FDA, BP, GS, M Fool, The Street, etc SNY did not sandbag Afrezza = Afrezza was just not worth their effort Stem cells will cure diabetes “before too long.” Two of your recent summations >>We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death.<< >>And just because the lights are still on in the business doesn't mean it's actually really alive. It just means it hasn't died yet.<< Pervasive pessimism to the point of assuming (patent, etc.) things are worse than they are. Yet, you’re still long on MNKD! If you were my doctor and equally long on my health, I hope you’d not take personally my strong desire to get a second opinion. Again, no offense taken. And I completely understand where you're coming from. I think I've finally crossed over into the 'emotional' camp where I want so badly for this company to succeed that I feel like it's my duty at this point to do all that I can. And there's still enough hope left in me to give it one last shot. I feel like if there isn't a suitable plan in place next month, it'll be too late (if it isn't already) to get this thing straightened out. To be fair, you must have also missed the posts where I said that I'm still young, this is in my "risky account" and that I was going to go down with this thing as low as I felt I could. I didn't want to sell until I knew that there was no hope because the difference between where we are now and how much farther we can go isn't that large. For me, only a couple thousand more dollars. With my student debt mounting up and collecting interest by the day, money has sort of become devoid of value. I won't invest with borrowed money, but I also don't mind if I lose everything I have, either. Investing is fun for me because I try to not allow money to hold too much value in my life. It's more about how much can I earn, how much can I grow. I don't necessarily view money as something to spend, but more of a game to see how much I can acquire. I'm sure my girlfriend and future children will take care of all of that for me... Also, to be even fairer, all of those posts have come within the last couple weeks. I've been down on this stock for a long while, but now that I'm seeing April 5 wasn't really the turnaround date... that it won't come until much later... my patience is growing even thinner. I was aware that Matt wasn't able to make any deals until he got Afrezza back, but I was hoping for a little bit bigger of a splash as far as updating everyone with where we were and where he's planning on taking us. Even saying this is what I hope to accomplish by next CC would have been welcomed so that we know he's making progress... because I can already hear it now... we need more time, hang in there with us... we'll get it straightened out... just like always. Some men just don't know the ends of themselves. I'll give Matt an A+ in determination, but sometimes it takes more than willpower to make things happen. I'm hoping we're not past that point, although I fear we might be. I'll be waiting until next month to find out... |
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Post by jerrys on Apr 7, 2016 21:00:41 GMT -5
I took some time out to do some research. media.mmm-online.com/documents/119/pharma_report_2015_29732.pdfLook at page 41, or for ease, control + F to find novolog/humalog. novolog and variants (1.9B +1.6B)= $3.5B in revenue in 2015 humalog and variants (1.7B + 1.4B)= $3.1B in revenue in 2015 now, here's the fun part. (not really. I get no fun from this... but I want to try to open eyes with it) If I'm reading this correctly, it says that last year $164million in sales for Apidra in 2015. money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/10159901.htmSo let's look at this and ask ourselves, "who has the most to lose/gain?" SNY or Novo or Lilly? SNY has the most to gain and the least to lose. This essentially 100% nullifies the argument that SNY sandbagged Afrezza because they thought it would cannibalize their market share of Apidra. What market share?! Apidra is the joke of the town as far as RAAs go. If my numbers are correct, Apidra currently owns only 2.4% of the RAA market. Novolog currently dominates the market. If SNY saw any value at all in Afrezza, they'd have been fools to throw it away. This leaves me with the only conclusion (and again, just my opinion!) that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze to SNY. It wasn't worth it to them to sink in the money necessary to steal market share away from their competitors. Maybe it was the 65% profit sharing part that did us in... who knows? Again, I think the stronger argument isn't that they "sandbagged" Afrezza, but that they're letting it go to whomever else would want it. If they truly saw immense value in Afrezza, they wouldn't have allowed one of their competitors to scoop it up. I'm sorry if that seems negative to anyone else, but feel free to give a counterargument. If you're going to say that SNY didn't try to market Afrezza (not disputing that... they certainly didn't do a full scale launch), please give me reasons why they wouldn't have. Please try to make sense of why they'd allow Afrezza to fall to whomever wanted it. The longer I'm in this stock, the more it becomes apparent to me that we've got a thoroughbred dog that just won't hunt. The only people who believe in it are ourselves, but we're incapable of getting the drug to the finish line on our own. Stuck between a rock and a hard place... "This essentially 100% nullifies the argument that SNY sandbagged Afrezza because they thought it would cannibalize their market share of Apidra." It may also nullify the argument that the way get better market share is to lower price. This chart compares insulins:
courses.washington.edu/pharm504/Insulin%20Chart.pdf
It shows there are practically no effective differences between apidra, novalog, and humalog. The prices respectively are 96, 102, 96 dollars per 10 cc vial. If Sanofi wanted to gain market share, why not just lower the price? Sanofi is a wealthy BP and could easily compete with Lilly and Novo on price, but chooses not to. Why? Indeed, novalog is the most expensive yet also has the largest market share. Other more important factors must be in play.
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) but has hit piece after hit piece come out against it for who knows why. It beats earnings every quarter and carries a hefty dividend on top. But it's still down almost 20% from its high at the beginning of last year. The whole market is corrupt. Even the products that sell well and produce great margins are struggling in this market.