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Post by peppy on Dec 7, 2016 8:42:54 GMT -5
Matt, How will the unwind work if MNKD succeeds? Just asking.
It depends exactly what you mean buy succeed. If MNKD manages to get enough scripts to stay in business but there is still no widespread adoption, then the company will become a zombie of sorts. If the drug ever does get reimbursement and can prove superior results, then the insulin product may get acquired by Novo or Lilly. Everyone loves to talk about China and India, but from what I can see the manufacturing cost numbers are not there for a big move into such price sensitive markets. Which leaves licensing of TS. That is a tough way to make money because some other company control your fate based on sales of their drug. The only company that ever made a nice profit promoting drug delivery solutions was Alza who had a huge library of ways to get drugs into various parts of the body; they were really innovative. If you take a long-acting pill of any type, you can thank Alza. The only way to monetize TS in a significant way is to put novel drugs into the delivery system, but that means MNKD must become a full scale drug developer and must find novel drugs that are best delivered via inhalation. For that they need much more capital and a very different management team because in any license deal 95% of the profits go to the company that developed the drug and 5% to the provider of the delivery system. Simply repackaging existing drugs (insulin, EPI, etc.) is not going to be that profitable because TS is not the only inhalation delivery system around, it is one of many, and there is no proprietary interest in existing drugs that are or will soon be off-patent. Ultimately, when a drug business matures the PPS aligns with industry averages which tend to fall into a 6-8X earnings multiple. Pull out your calculator and figure out how much profit you think MNKD can produce on a sustainable basis and then do the math on total company value and what that translates into per share. I understand Market capitalization. I looked at GWPH yesterday trading over a hundred twenty us dollars, with an eps of - 3.95. A market cap of 2.89 billion. www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGWPH&ei=QRFIWKP6NYXcjAHPyayQCQ MNKD was running a market cap of 2.5 billion at 6-7 dollars. I get it. Thanks for the response. heh
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Post by peppy on Dec 7, 2016 9:43:12 GMT -5
Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi covered?
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Post by matt on Dec 7, 2016 10:14:51 GMT -5
Ultimately, when a drug business matures the PPS aligns with industry averages which tend to fall into a 6-8X earnings multiple. Pull out your calculator and figure out how much profit you think MNKD can produce on a sustainable basis and then do the math on total company value and what that translates into per share. I understand Market capitalization. I looked at GWPH yesterday trading over a hundred twenty us dollars, with an eps of - 3.95. A market cap of 2.89 billion. www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGWPH&ei=QRFIWKP6NYXcjAHPyayQCQ MNKD was running a market cap of 2.5 billion at 6-7 dollars. I get it. Thanks for the response. heh
Just be mindful of the first word in the sentence above; ultimately. I have been in healthcare for over 35 years and I have a very finely tuned sense of market potential in many product sectors, but I will be the first to admit that insulin is not one of them. In the case of MNKD, it will likely take 2 years (at least) to define a long-term trend line, and maybe a lot longer than that. So while the 6-8X earning rule will likely play out in time, it won't happen while the trend line is still being defined. I have seen lots of high growth companies trading at 60-80X multiples, and modest growth companies trading at 20X for several years. Investors who make a lot of money watch for the inflection point on the growth curve and take their profits then. Unless you are very close to a product sector, it is very difficult to translate "ultimately" into a quantifiable number of years. Companies with negative earnings and big market caps (like WWPH) are almost always bets on R&D pipelines and Big Pharma take-outs. Those were no-brainer bets in the 1980's, still fairly easy money in the 1990's, but betting on a take out has become a risky proposition since 2000 since Big Pharma had too many write-offs from reckless acquisitions in the 1990's. However, if you can find a novel drug that some Big Pharma simply must have in its portfolio then go for it. Just make sure it is a therapeutic sector where the company has announced its intention to focus in the future, and not one it dominates today. There are good economic reasons most Big Pharmas are deemphasizing metabolic drugs and investing their research dollars mostly in neurological indications, oncology, and Alzheimer's.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 7, 2016 20:26:20 GMT -5
I sincerely hope so to time will tell! Time seems to be the enemy of mannkind kball turn that frown upside down
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 7, 2016 23:15:03 GMT -5
The way I am reading it, His Darkness will cover somewhere between 750 to 1000 Trx a week. Am I close?
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 7, 2016 23:30:03 GMT -5
The way I am reading it, His Darkness will cover somewhere between 750 to 1000 Trx a week. Am I close? Don't count on it:-)))
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Post by lakers on Dec 8, 2016 0:01:08 GMT -5
www.loopnet.com/xNet/Looplink/Profile/Profile.aspx?LID=19218181&STID=CB0003&LL=trueIndustrial Property For Sale Price:$20,732,000Building Size:146,000 SFPrice/SF:$142Property Type:IndustrialProperty Sub-type:R&DProperty Use Type:Vacant/Owner-UserNo. Stories:2Year Built:1999Clear Ceiling Height:30 ft.Dock-High Doors/Loading:10Drive In/Grade-Level Doors:2Lot Size:324,552 SFAPN / Parcel ID:3271-026-067Parking Ratio:2.30 / 1,000 SFListing ID19218181Last Updated26 days ago Find Out More... Highlights State-of-the-Art R&D / Tech Center in the Heart of Valencia Gateway50,000 SF of High Image Corporate/Admin Office40,000 SF of Laboratory and Support Facilities Including 30,000 SF of General Lab Space52,000 SF of Warehouse Space Which Could Accommodate Additional Office and Lab SpaceExtensive Mechanical Systems to Allow for Full Operational Redundancy Description ** State-of-the-Art Class "A" Building ** ** Extensive Laboratory and Office Improvements ** ** Large Equipment Yard ** Excess Land Area** ** Potential of 5/1,000 Parking** ** Adjacent 3.96 Acre Land Also Available for $18.00 PSF ** ** Prime Valencia Commerce Center Location ** ** Excellent Access to the Golden State (I-5) & 126 Freeways ** ** Proximity to Amenities ** Commercial property information by LoopNet Map of 28903 Avenue Paine, Valencia, CA 91355 (Los Angeles County) 3.96ac= 172497.6ft² *18/sq ft + $20,732,000= 23,836,957
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Post by lakers on Dec 8, 2016 15:37:58 GMT -5
seekingalpha.com/article/4021887-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-matthew-pfeffer-q3-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleStephen Weil from Oppenheimer Yes. Hi. This is Steven Weil. MannKind Corporation has many patents for various products [inaudible]. Can you give us any information on things other than Afrezza and the epinephrine. Raymond Urbanski Yes. Certainly, so we have a range of compounds in development, slightly more than 10 on the list, some include NCEs related to sort of pain management, others are B2 type of drugs, which we’ll be looking at, some are related to diabetes such as Symlin, for example, others are related to other disorders like parathyroid hormone, for example. So we have -- we do have a fairly extensive portfolio that we are still looking at to leverage, our innovative oral inhalation technology and the pharmacokinetic profile that will provide. We believe we’ll have several compounds in development in 2017. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_chemical_entityAn NCE (New Chemical Entity) is a molecule developed by the innovator company in the early drug discovery stage, which after undergoing clinical trials could translate into a drug that could be a treatment for some disease. Synthesis of an NCE is the first step in the process of drug development. Once the synthesis of the NCE has been completed, companies have two options before them. They can either go for clinical trials on their own or license the NCE to another company. In the latter option, companies can avoid the expensive and lengthy process of clinical trials, as the licensee company would be conducting further clinical trials and subsequently launching the drug. Companies adopting this model of business would be able to generate high margins as they get a huge one-time payment for the NCE as well as entering into a revenue sharing agreement [royalty] with the licensee company.Under the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007, all new chemical entities must first be reviewed by an advisory committee before the FDA can approve these products. I expect several licensees in the next 2 years.
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Post by lakers on Dec 13, 2016 15:03:12 GMT -5
New update follows.
Hello ......,
You’ve asked insightful questions. However, beyond the public guidance we provided on 11/9/16, we take extreme care in any updates given the potential for Reg. FD violations and heightened scrutiny around our communications.
On the 11/9 call, our CMO stated that our current lead candidate is our inhaled epinephrine. With limited resources, we are focused on the clinical development program and post-marketing requirements for Afrezza and this lead candidate in the near term. As we’ve stated before, if there are partnering opportunities, we would announce them. You must appreciate that product candidates need to reach a level of value before any potential partner would be interested. We are focused on getting inhaled epi to that stage.
As for RLS, we stated in our 11/9 call that we would achieve certain predetermined technical objectives in November, which we did accomplish. There is a process with RLS wherein their approval and acceptance will trigger a milestone payment. Until we have gone through this process with RLS, we are not assured of timing/receipt of milestone payments which we would most likely announce via press release given the market’s interest in our corporate developments and any extension of our financial runway.
Thank you for your support.
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Post by kbrion77 on Dec 13, 2016 15:07:18 GMT -5
New update follows. Hello ......, You’ve asked insightful questions. However, beyond the public guidance we provided on 11/9/16, we take extreme care in any updates given the potential for Reg. FD violations and heightened scrutiny around our communications. On the 11/9 call, our CMO stated that our current lead candidate is our inhaled epinephrine. With limited resources, we are focused on the clinical development program and post-marketing requirements for Afrezza and this lead candidate in the near term. As we’ve stated before, if there are partnering opportunities, we would announce them. You must appreciate that product candidates need to reach a level of value before any potential partner would be interested. We are focused on getting inhaled epi to that stage. As for RLS, we stated in our 11/9 call that we would achieve certain predetermined technical objectives in November, which we did accomplish. There is a process with RLS wherein their approval and acceptance will trigger a milestone payment. Until we have gone through this process with RLS, we are not assured of timing/receipt of milestone payments which we would most likely announce via press release given the market’s interest in our corporate developments and any extension of our financial runway. Thank you for your support. AKA stop bothering us when there is something material we will announce it via press release.
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Post by dg1111 on Dec 13, 2016 16:10:16 GMT -5
New update follows. Hello ......, You’ve asked insightful questions. However, beyond the public guidance we provided on 11/9/16, we take extreme care in any updates given the potential for Reg. FD violations and heightened scrutiny around our communications. On the 11/9 call, our CMO stated that our current lead candidate is our inhaled epinephrine. With limited resources, we are focused on the clinical development program and post-marketing requirements for Afrezza and this lead candidate in the near term. As we’ve stated before, if there are partnering opportunities, we would announce them. You must appreciate that product candidates need to reach a level of value before any potential partner would be interested. We are focused on getting inhaled epi to that stage. As for RLS, we stated in our 11/9 call that we would achieve certain predetermined technical objectives in November, which we did accomplish. There is a process with RLS wherein their approval and acceptance will trigger a milestone payment. Until we have gone through this process with RLS, we are not assured of timing/receipt of milestone payments which we would most likely announce via press release given the market’s interest in our corporate developments and any extension of our financial runway. Thank you for your support. I think that a lot of people are hoping (or assuming) that the "certain predetermined technical objectives" are tied to a milestone payment. Do we have a good reason to think that the two or linked? It seems implied in the text in the post above, but it is not explicitly stated that way.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 13, 2016 16:18:25 GMT -5
As I recall, back in February when CEO Pfeffer was discussing the new RLS agreement, he stated that a milestone payment could be attainable by EOY-2016. I think that shareholders are seeing a connection between that remark and the technical achievement just completed.
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Post by brentie on Dec 13, 2016 16:28:12 GMT -5
As I recall, back in February when CEO Pfeffer was discussing the new RLS agreement, he stated that a milestone payment could be attainable by EOY-2016. I think that shareholders are seeing a connection between that remark and the technical achievement just completed. "Also in the first quarter we completed our first licensing of the Technosphere platform to Receptor Life Sciences and we recognize that 250,000 signing fee, payment from them in our first quarter financial results. This first program milestone payment from [indiscernible] is expected in the fourth quarter as we complete initial product development milestones. I will now expand our blueprint for the remainder of the year." seekingalpha.com/article/3973315-mannkind-corporations-mnkd-ceo-matthew-pfeffer-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 13, 2016 22:14:08 GMT -5
Thanks, brentie! What's that old adage? "I have an excellent memory, only it's too short."
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Post by lakers on Jan 6, 2017 4:16:35 GMT -5
On deck is EpiHale IND filing, then CRL a few months later. A partner will emerge.
Resuming PAHale - Great market.
Starting Pediatric Study
PK, URA Label change triggering international expansion to Canada
Plenty of catalysts. No wonder Matt was confident Pps would be above $1 thereby avoiding delisting.
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