|
Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2017 7:26:49 GMT -5
I wanted to file this information. The plan. Math by OOG.
Current Burn Rate: 10M / month Annual Burn Rate: 120M
30 Day Patient Cost: 600 Profit to Mannkind: 150
30d Prescriptions Required for breakeven: 120M/150 = 800K 90d Prescriptions Required: 267k (annually) Weekly TRX Required: 267 / 52 = 5128
Roughly speaking MNKD needs 5200 total prescription per week to break even at current price structure.
This corresponds to approximately 67700 patients using Afrezza. Note: Danbury plant with 3 lines has current max capacity of 500k annual patients.
OOG
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/7477/2017-sales-marketing-developments?page=2#ixzz4d1BDulS0
obstacles that need to be over come for plan implementation:
This is pretty easy to understand. Pricing in the insulin market is headed south, due mainly to competition for the PBM market. PBMs don't make their money on discounts; they make the money on rebates which are paid at the end of the year. The way pharma companies get the PBMs to enforce formulary restrictions is by promising big rebates tied to market share figures; miss the market share target percentage for the preferred brand and the rebate takes a major hit.
When Lantus was the only game in town, Sanofi did not have to play nice with the PBMs. Now that there are biosimilars, Lilly and Novo can enforce their sole source formulary placement much more effectively, and this has killed Sanofi's diabetes business. By adding new insulin options to the Sanofi product line, they can play a bit of catch-up and try to recapture lost market share.
It is also the reason Afrezza will never make much of a dent in the PBM sector unless it becomes a widely prescribed product. With the way the rebates work, each fill of Afrezza hurts the PBM because it makes it that much harder to hit the necessary market share percentage to get the maximum rebate. Even if Mannkind priced Afrezza at $0, it still might be in the economic interest of the PBM to fill with the preferred brand rather than Afrezza. The rebate formulas are designed to achieve this precise result and there is a LOT of money on the table for the PBM.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/7972/mannkind-distribution-agreement-afrezza-brazil?page=10#ixzz4kEKT28C7 Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8082/off-topic-metformin#ixzz4kGIKHi4h case in point:
/photo/1
|
|
|
Post by blueice on Jun 17, 2017 17:31:30 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by kuka on Jun 17, 2017 20:41:38 GMT -5
this now signed 5 year contract contract (6 June) with VA is huge .... "The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reports that nearly one in four men and women (24 percent) who served their country have diabetes. That’s much higher than the 9 percent of all Americans who have diabetes."
being a veteran ...and have used the VA health system before ....I will tell you that they WILL issue the best and newest therapies for its patients.
I will also say that if the best product is even cheaper than its competitors ...they will push it.
This is HUGE news folks ... there are more than 10 million in the VA system ...so do the 25% math here folks.
LONG ISON
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Jun 17, 2017 20:45:08 GMT -5
Wonder if VA distributions of Afrezza will show up in script counts?
|
|
|
Post by kuka on Jun 17, 2017 21:01:54 GMT -5
I would say NO...its a set list of pharmacies in those systems
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2017 21:12:49 GMT -5
this now signed 5 year contract contract (6 June) with VA is huge .... "The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reports that nearly one in four men and women (24 percent) who served their country have diabetes. That’s much higher than the 9 percent of all Americans who have diabetes." being a veteran ...and have used the VA health system before ....I will tell you that they WILL issue the best and newest therapies for its patients. I will also say that if the best product is even cheaper than its competitors ...they will push it. This is HUGE news folks ... there are more than 10 million in the VA system ...so do the 25% math here folks. LONG ISON perhaps if the service men get the news of afrezza via reversed, they will ask their physicians for afrezza.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2017 21:24:16 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by lennymnkd on Jun 17, 2017 21:26:17 GMT -5
Looks like the VA thinks we must have some sort of sustainability as a ongoing concern !
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2017 21:36:28 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Jun 17, 2017 21:45:04 GMT -5
I'm also a veteran who was diagnosed with diabetes on my out go physical ... 30% disability so I barely made disabled veteran status. Guess I ate and drank too much during my 4 years of service? Anyway, I saw my doctor a few years back and asked him if he heard of Afrezza ... Nope ... so I wrote it on a piece of paper and told him to check it out for his diabetic patients. I'm a borderline diabetic so I don't take insulin yet. I told him that when I do need insulin ... that I will be requesting Afrezza. BTW, I'm still at the same numbers as my out go physical. But, I think they told me that I have dementia ... I can't remember.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2017 22:07:17 GMT -5
I'm also a veteran who was diagnosed with diabetes on my out go physical ... 30% disability so I barely made disabled veteran status. Guess I ate and drank too much during my 4 years of service? Anyway, I saw my doctor a few years back and asked him if he heard of Afrezza ... Nope ... so I wrote it on a piece of paper and told him to check it out for his diabetic patients. I'm a borderline diabetic so I don't take insulin yet. I told him that when I do need insulin ... that I will be requesting Afrezza. BTW, I'm still at the same numbers as my out go physical. But, I think they told me that I have dementia ... I can't remember. I think it might be parasites. But what do I know.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Jun 18, 2017 0:26:52 GMT -5
I'm wondering whether this contract is what is keeping our share price going, even on days of gloriously low scripts. Perhaps this VA deal is one of two things keeping it going?
|
|
|
Post by mango on Jun 18, 2017 1:48:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Jun 18, 2017 7:07:42 GMT -5
The VA contract became effective June 15, 2017. Does the VA permit sales calls to their regional hospitals and VA physicians? If anybody knows the answer to this question, it would be appreciated. Edit: I think I found that the answer is yes, provided a pharmaceutical company representative (PCR) follow the guidelines put forth by the VA. Source: www.va.gov/vhapublications/ViewPublication.asp?pub_ID=2852
|
|
|
Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jun 18, 2017 9:17:57 GMT -5
I wonder if the change from interim status to final contract status will help give VA doctors more confidence to prescribe Afrezza. Perhaps the interim status left a question mark for doctors where they may not have wanted to begin their patients on what would be a long term use of a new insulin without being sure it would be around. This contract shows it will be around into the future. Really good news.
|
|