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Post by sylvaing on Jan 29, 2017 9:45:11 GMT -5
Hi Brotherm1,
MNKD will be either facing rs or delisting...it is part of their action plan....and since they went to get the TASE listing, I believe, they will go with the delisting from the NASDAQ and wait to get Afrezza sales...before coming back on the NASDAQ
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Post by surplusvalue on Jan 31, 2017 2:05:22 GMT -5
My nickles worth on the subject: My calculation is it will look something like this: Amount to raise: 12 months operation budget: 120M Current Value of Company: 600M * 0.67 = 400M (ish) Reverse Split: 10 for 1 New share count: 60 M @ $6.70 New offering: 30M New share count: 90M Resulting Share Price: 400M/90 = 4.44 Offering Price: $4.00 + warrant Offering Rev: $4 X 30M = $120M Think that I might want to have a bit of cash around for the dip it will take after the new shares roll out. Or to be able to play if it turns out to be a rights offering. Not sure if I will lighten the current load before the call. OOG The benchmark is the Rodman and Renshaw placement which gave a 20% discount to the share price (ignoring the warrants). If the reverse split price gives $4.44 then the placement price will probably be a maximum of $3.55. One possibility is that they will announce the placement priced at the 80% of VWAP for the ten trading days immediately post reverse split so the investors can sidestep any resulting drop from the split.
I have offloaded half my position in the last month, I think I will sell down to a quarter position before the call. Glad to see you post this. This is exactly what is often done. Both management and the new investors know the stock will drop vis a vis a RS. The point is that the new investors are protected but the old ones not so much. IF Ottawaguys' scenario is correct then it will take a stock increase of 10 times their existing (presplit) average for existing underwater holders to break even. As an illustration lets say your present average is $3. Then you are looking at your resulting share number (post split) to reach $30 share to break even. That's along way from a post split price of around $4. How long do you think that would take given what Matt suggested at the last CC is the usual timeline to commercialize (I recall a chart figure of about 5 years) although he didnt commit anything about Afrezza. Like I have suggested many times this is going to take a long time to commercialize. So if there is a RS and you are more than marginally underwater then you should be prepared to wait for about five years to break even. Maybe. (unless there is a buyout which may bring it sooner). |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2017 11:53:19 GMT -5
surplusvalueIf only my basis were as low as $3. But I'm a "true long" (TM) so I'm sure I'll be back in black in no time. I suspect you may be playing this right, moving some to cash to take advantage of news as I would also put RS as most likely announcement tomorrow. Unfortunately I'm suffering from Mannkind PTSD which inhibits rational thought and action.
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