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Post by liane on Apr 19, 2017 12:06:12 GMT -5
Take it any way you like, but I am still long.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 19, 2017 12:07:40 GMT -5
I bought shares at $1.16. Sucka Sorry, had to do it. The past has shown that any additional investment in MannKind stock has been a case of putting good money after bad. At best, you have to hope for a bounce here. There is NO other reason to buy at this point other than the hope of a bounce. We have a case of additional dilution at $1.15. Those notes likely were NOT valued at face, yet they were not exchanged at a discount to face. Instead, Deerfield received shares above face based on last closing share price (or, better yet, MannKind avg. share price over past 30 trading days.) What should everyone have learned from this announcement? 1. MannKind cannot pay back this debt in cash. 2. MannKind still has more debt to resolve. 3. MannKind is suffering liquidity issues. 4. MannKind had basically no negotiating power against Deerfield to convert the debt at a discount to face and, instead, had to do a deal at a discount to equity as noted above. 5. MannKind share price is now hovering near that $1 critical level. How soon before shorts take it back below? 6. Deerfield did not take shares with the belief that MannKind is undervalued. It was rather a way to keep the doors open without forcing Bankruptcy or some other extreme measure to deal with debt. Deefield is better off at this point to let things ride. Why? That's another story to unfold and I can only speculate on that one. In my opinion, though, Deerfield will end up with more of the company by keeping MannKind out of BK for now. The ONLY thing that changes everything is a real increase in sales. Based on everything we know, that is becoming less likely by the week and is now incredibly unlikely. MannKind is out of money and out of options. Not sure why anyone would "buy" the company here. Deerfield likely has their own plan and it is not aligned with retail shareholders. #1.. Maybe not such a sucka if Deerfield takes a stake and finds a buyer. #2.. I'm hearing doc's are coming around:-) And not from a message board. |
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Post by liane on Apr 19, 2017 12:09:22 GMT -5
@sportsrancho A massage board???  |
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 19, 2017 12:13:21 GMT -5
"#2.. I'm hearing doc's are coming around:-) And not from a massage board." Is it sufficiently warm in Temecula that you may have become delirious? Take it easy, Sports, and I'm glad you like "massages," too, by all means go get one and charge it to me! You are one optimistic young lady! I applaud you for it, and hope that if it's not MNKD that comes through for you, something half as good will!!  |
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 19, 2017 12:20:06 GMT -5
Deerfield knows more about MNKD finances and potential than anyone outside of MNKD management.
Deerfield converting debt to much less secure stock equity indicates Deerfield does not believe bankruptcy is anywhere in the future.
Deerfield is an investment company.
Step one was for MNKD to issue the recent golden parachute protections for its management team in case of a transfer of ownership.
Step two was for Deerfield to convert debt to equity that now gives them upside potential they didn't have without this conversion.
Step three will be the defining moment for MNKD's future.
Wish I had a clue as to what Step three will be...unfortunately, no one really does.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 19, 2017 12:21:09 GMT -5
Love u baba! To funny
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Post by matt on Apr 19, 2017 12:23:27 GMT -5
To me, pretty much a non-event. What's Deerfield gonna do, watch MNKD go BK and get next to nothing for their notes, or convert their notes to stock and maybe get a bigger payday than interest on those Notes? Not sure if those notes were convertible, by the way. The conversion price was fine, but, again, pretty much irrelevant under our current circumstances. I gotta think Deerfield is going to sell many of those shares, otherwise they are afraid they will get nothing (and end up in the same boat as us, and NO ONE wants to be in THAT boat). So, it's a good deal for Deerfield, cuz now they can get some cash for their note, where they otherwise would get a lot less cash, possibly nothing (well, they may want to take over the business and see if they can sell Afrezza). And it's good for us, too, although I'm not sure at all that Deerfield would have exercised their remedies if we hadn't paid. They probably would have extended the maturity. But it is a way of getting poor, poor Deerfield a little more cash for their fooling mistake of lending to us! Deerfield has a reputation for playing hardball so I think if it came down to a choice between extending the maturity date and foreclosing on the note, they almost certainly would have foreclosed. With this transaction Deerfield gets $4 million of cash now instead of $5 million in May, and they get some shares they can sell to get more cash so they are almost whole on the May obligations. On the July payments, there is still a loss waiting for them as the company will have a hard time coming up with the remaining $10 million in cash and the shares will not net $5 million after costs. However, Deerfield still has control of the collateral in a worst case scenario and that is the leverage they need to call the shots going forward. Deerfield is not looking to win, they are looking to minimize their risk of loss on their notes going forward. Keep that in mind as it will be predictive of their next move as the remaining cash portion of the July payment comes due. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 19, 2017 12:31:09 GMT -5
Deerfield knows more about MNKD finances and potential than anyone outside of MNKD management. Deerfield converting debt to much less secure stock equity indicates Deerfield does not believe bankruptcy is anywhere in the future. Deerfield is an investment company. Step one was for MNKD to issue the recent golden parachute protections for its management team in case of a transfer of ownership. Step two was for Deerfield to convert debt to equity that now gives them upside potential they didn't have without this conversion. Step three will be the defining moment for MNKD's future. Wish I had a clue as to what Step three will be...unfortunately, no one really does. Step Three advertising starts July 1. MNKD is ready. They addressed, getting doctors ready. There is a team to help with insurance. They addressed titration. A titration pack. There is a team now, a nursing team working with afrezza users. I wish they got a continuous glucose monitor for a month.
The type one market alone is huge.
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Post by chuck on Apr 19, 2017 12:39:22 GMT -5
To me, pretty much a non-event. What's Deerfield gonna do, watch MNKD go BK and get next to nothing for their notes, or convert their notes to stock and maybe get a bigger payday than interest on those Notes? Not sure if those notes were convertible, by the way. The conversion price was fine, but, again, pretty much irrelevant under our current circumstances. I gotta think Deerfield is going to sell many of those shares, otherwise they are afraid they will get nothing (and end up in the same boat as us, and NO ONE wants to be in THAT boat). So, it's a good deal for Deerfield, cuz now they can get some cash for their note, where they otherwise would get a lot less cash, possibly nothing (well, they may want to take over the business and see if they can sell Afrezza). And it's good for us, too, although I'm not sure at all that Deerfield would have exercised their remedies if we hadn't paid. They probably would have extended the maturity. But it is a way of getting poor, poor Deerfield a little more cash for their fooling mistake of lending to us! Deerfield has a reputation for playing hardball so I think if it came down to a choice between extending the maturity date and foreclosing on the note, they almost certainly would have foreclosed. With this transaction Deerfield gets $4 million of cash now instead of $5 million in May, and they get some shares they can sell to get more cash so they are almost whole on the May obligations. On the July payments, there is still a loss waiting for them as the company will have a hard time coming up with the remaining $10 million in cash and the shares will not net $5 million after costs. However, Deerfield still has control of the collateral in a worst case scenario and that is the leverage they need to call the shots going forward. Deerfield is not looking to win, they are looking to minimize their risk of loss on their notes going forward. Keep that in mind as it will be predictive of their next move as the remaining cash portion of the July payment comes due. So out of $20m coming due in 2017, they are taking cash for $14m ($4m now and $10m in July) and converting the rest to equity at $1.15 per share. This to me says that they want out of this investment. 70% is to be liquidated in cash. In terms of the remaining 30% (or $6m) which has been converted to equity, why move down the balance sheet to straight common? Clearly if they wanted upside potential they would exchange the notes to new debt that is convertible into equity. Both protects ranking and provides upside. A move a straight common tells me they've already shorted the stock, will sell into the market or alternatively have already come to an agreement with one or more parties that are currently short to sell them the stock to close out the short position of the other party. |
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Post by dearlew9 on Apr 19, 2017 12:47:31 GMT -5
#1.. Maybe not such a sucka if Deerfield takes a stake and finds a buyer. #2.. I'm hearing doc's are coming around:-) And not from a message board. Is that from Mike's tweet? if not can you let us know how they are coming around? |
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 19, 2017 12:52:18 GMT -5
#1.. Maybe not such a sucka if Deerfield takes a stake and finds a buyer. #2.. I'm hearing doc's are coming around:-) And not from a message board. Is that from Mike's tweet? if not can you let us know how they are coming around? Sports said something about having a bunch of Endo's in the basement of her gym for the past several weeks. Then she hired some guy named Jack Bauer to explain to them just how great Afrezza is. Good to hear that they're coming around! |
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Post by zuegirdor on Apr 19, 2017 12:55:32 GMT -5
Sucka Sorry, had to do it. The past has shown that any additional investment in MannKind stock has been a case of putting good money after bad. At best, you have to hope for a bounce here. There is NO other reason to buy at this point other than the hope of a bounce. We have a case of additional dilution at $1.15. Those notes likely were NOT valued at face, yet they were not exchanged at a discount to face. Instead, Deerfield received shares above face based on last closing share price (or, better yet, MannKind avg. share price over past 30 trading days.) What should everyone have learned from this announcement? 1. MannKind cannot pay back this debt in cash. 2. MannKind still has more debt to resolve. 3. MannKind is suffering liquidity issues. 4. MannKind had basically no negotiating power against Deerfield to convert the debt at a discount to face and, instead, had to do a deal at a discount to equity as noted above. 5. MannKind share price is now hovering near that $1 critical level. How soon before shorts take it back below? 6. Deerfield did not take shares with the belief that MannKind is undervalued. It was rather a way to keep the doors open without forcing Bankruptcy or some other extreme measure to deal with debt. Deefield is better off at this point to let things ride. Why? That's another story to unfold and I can only speculate on that one. In my opinion, though, Deerfield will end up with more of the company by keeping MannKind out of BK for now. The ONLY thing that changes everything is a real increase in sales. Based on everything we know, that is becoming less likely by the week and is now incredibly unlikely. MannKind is out of money and out of options. Not sure why anyone would "buy" the company here. Deerfield likely has their own plan and it is not aligned with retail shareholders. #1.. Maybe not such a sucka if Deerfield takes a stake and finds a buyer. #2.. I'm hearing doc's are coming around:-) And not from a message board. My son's Kaiser Endo, initially a severe skeptic, is softening on Afrezza. Still can't /wont Rx off-label for pedis, but is going to attend a workshop on it with other interested Drs... |
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Post by zuegirdor on Apr 19, 2017 12:57:19 GMT -5
@sportsrancho A massage board??? its like a water board only the screams are of relief, more like a water bed |
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Post by surplusvalue on Apr 19, 2017 12:59:15 GMT -5
Deerfield knows more about MNKD finances and potential than anyone outside of MNKD management. Deerfield converting debt to much less secure stock equity indicates Deerfield does not believe bankruptcy is anywhere in the future. Deerfield is an investment company. Step one was for MNKD to issue the recent golden parachute protections for its management team in case of a transfer of ownership. Step two was for Deerfield to convert debt to equity that now gives them upside potential they didn't have without this conversion. Step three will be the defining moment for MNKD's future. Wish I had a clue as to what Step three will be...unfortunately, no one really does. Step Three advertising starts July 1. MNKD is ready. They addressed, getting doctors ready. There is a team to help with insurance. They addressed titration. A titration pack. There is a team now, a nursing team working with afrezza users. I wish they got a continuous glucose monitor for a month.
The type one market alone is huge.
Advertising just when the remaining debt is due. Perfect... for our CEO who keeps confirming his last minute Larry strategy for running this company. Advertising is a little late to the party and should have been much much earlier as I have indicated numerous times elsewhere. They certainly followed Sanofi in this regard and we have all seen the results after an additional two launches. And after burning almost 80 million since Sept dont tell me they could not have afforded it. Oh that's right, they were saving it to hire a Chief People Officer. And are the doctors ready? The script numbers and the quarterly performance affected by just one prescriber's death indicate otherwise. Are they just waiting for the advertising to prescribe? Isnt it readily apparent by now that MNKD, a research and development company that had absolutely no commercialization experience together with a CEO who had no CEO experience, bit off much more than they could chew. Even many of the cheerleaders here are now talking buy out, reorganization, takeover etc etc because MNKD is not commercializing this in any meaningful sense and probably not capable of doing this on their own. Even if they were to reach 600 scripts , think of it in terms of what they have spent and the size of the diabetes market; even at 600 scripts (mind you they dont seem to be able to even get to 300) its an insignificant speck. And where does this leave shareholders who have been here for some time? After the reverse and the present situation that should be self evident too. |
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Post by kc on Apr 19, 2017 13:20:21 GMT -5
Maybe he will eventually ask for a board seat and become an activist investor. You can bet that with a 5.1% interest he will want to see a return and perhaps push or help the company to make a sale. I view this all as being positive. Have to do the research on other deals Flynn has been involved in.
Deerfield Management, managed by James E. Flynn since 2000, is a healthcare focused investment company that specializes in funding R&D, managing hostile takeovers, corporate transitions and financial advisory services. Deerfield Management oversees $3.5 billion in assets.
Read more at www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/deerfield+management/408/#DxSlo4jADmByZ6bp.99
Remember Flynn wants to win with MannKind...
www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/deerfield-management
www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=8002481&privcapId=3751585
Background
Mr. James Edward Flynn, also known as Jim, has been a Partner of Deerfield Management Company, L.P. since February 2000 and serves as its President. Mr. Flynn served as a Managing Director of the equity research department at ING Baring Furman Selz from 1996 to February 2000, a Vice President of Corporate Developmennt at Alpharma Inc., a pharmaceutical company, from 1993 to 1995, and a Senior Vice President of Equity Research at Kidder, Peabody & Co., an investment banking firm from 1988 to 1993. Mr. Flynn was an Equity Analyst of Kidder Peabody Group Inc., Research Division and ING Groep N.V., Research Division. He serves as a Trustee of Mount Sinai Beth Israel. He serves as a Trustee of Continuum Health Partners, Inc., Beth Israel Medical Center and St Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Center. He serves as a Director of eCaring LLC. Mr. Flynn attended from University of Michigan in Economics, Cellular Biology and Molecular Biology
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