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Post by cretin11 on May 31, 2017 15:19:32 GMT -5
I hope it's in stock and not cash. Sell it if/when we get it, but I don't want to be forced out of my position of any company that picks up Afrezza/Mannkind.Well said and this is probably the singularly most important statement that Long Term Shareholders (LTS) ought to consider very carefully and voice when/if the opportunity presents itself. Every LTS who has been holding MannKind stock since the IPO ought to be carefully considered by MannKind Corporation's BOD and properly recognized for their belief in Afrezza for diabetics and at some point later, the future promise of Technosphere. That said, should a much larger company come to the table with our Board of Directors, then the Board must deal from the perspective of the LTS of MannKind Corporation. In my view, the BOD needs to ensure any potential new owner truly recognize that a MannKind's LTS is a different breed of investor. Many MNKD LTS have been steadfast in their belief of the future of Afrezza and new TS combinations despite the deep errosion of the value of their MNKD investment. Some may see MNKD LTS as 'silly' but the MannKind Board should know their LTS are nothing but dead serious. The last thing the BOD should do is to agree to a cash offer alone. It would be unconscionable on their part to exclude individual LTS from the future value of the stock they've held for years. It would be wrong in my view. Rather, MannKind's BOD should work with any potential new owner to carve out a specific stock conversion offer for LTS including employees of MannKind who've held shares via a stock purchase plan (*and not options which are awarded at no cost). If your own money is not invested, then you do not count as a LTS. Naturally, they would need to define what constitutes a MannKind LTS. If I were to make such a decision, I would say that at the very least, any individual LTS who can show they've held XXX shares for a minimun of no less than 2 full years, then, those shares would be considered eligible for conversion. All other shares would be offered to be purchased with cash. I think that the above would be fair given the approval of Afrezza was in 2014. Then, LTS which meet such criteria could be offered a stock exchange option for some/all of their shares and only cash for those which do not meet this criteria. There needs to be a cut off right? Obviously, a stock exchange option would need to take into consideration the recent 5:1 reverse split, the value of the buying company's stock price with a % factored in for targeted sales of Afrezza through 2024 (10 years out from initial Approval). We need to be fair on this all around right? My point is, a LTS does not run when the going gets tough and they should be appropriately recognized for their steadfast loyalty in the event of a buyout offer. A partnership would be better at this point in time and down the road, LTS would benefit from a cash buyout once Afrezza sales reaches a significant level in 2024. That's just not the way things work, unfortunately (for LTSs).
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on May 31, 2017 17:15:49 GMT -5
Well said and this is probably the singularly most important statement that Long Term Shareholders (LTS) ought to consider very carefully and voice when/if the opportunity presents itself. Every LTS who has been holding MannKind stock since the IPO ought to be carefully considered by MannKind Corporation's BOD and properly recognized for their belief in Afrezza for diabetics and at some point later, the future promise of Technosphere. That said, should a much larger company come to the table with our Board of Directors, then the Board must deal from the perspective of the LTS of MannKind Corporation. In my view, the BOD needs to ensure any potential new owner truly recognize that a MannKind's LTS is a different breed of investor. Many MNKD LTS have been steadfast in their belief of the future of Afrezza and new TS combinations despite the deep errosion of the value of their MNKD investment. Some may see MNKD LTS as 'silly' but the MannKind Board should know their LTS are nothing but dead serious. The last thing the BOD should do is to agree to a cash offer alone. It would be unconscionable on their part to exclude individual LTS from the future value of the stock they've held for years. It would be wrong in my view. Rather, MannKind's BOD should work with any potential new owner to carve out a specific stock conversion offer for LTS including employees of MannKind who've held shares via a stock purchase plan (*and not options which are awarded at no cost). If your own money is not invested, then you do not count as a LTS. Naturally, they would need to define what constitutes a MannKind LTS. If I were to make such a decision, I would say that at the very least, any individual LTS who can show they've held XXX shares for a minimun of no less than 2 full years, then, those shares would be considered eligible for conversion. All other shares would be offered to be purchased with cash. I think that the above would be fair given the approval of Afrezza was in 2014. Then, LTS which meet such criteria could be offered a stock exchange option for some/all of their shares and only cash for those which do not meet this criteria. There needs to be a cut off right? Obviously, a stock exchange option would need to take into consideration the recent 5:1 reverse split, the value of the buying company's stock price with a % factored in for targeted sales of Afrezza through 2024 (10 years out from initial Approval). We need to be fair on this all around right? My point is, a LTS does not run when the going gets tough and they should be appropriately recognized for their steadfast loyalty in the event of a buyout offer. A partnership would be better at this point in time and down the road, LTS would benefit from a cash buyout once Afrezza sales reaches a significant level in 2024. That's just not the way things work, unfortunately (for LTSs).I would say that you are correct and an investor must be prepared to lose money in any investment just as they hope to make money. That said however, the individual LTS of MannKind stock is not your average LTS and MannKind is not your average biopharmaceutical.
The MNKD LTS (and I admit I am generalizing here), in fact spent a lot of time considering and researching whether to place their money into this company. It's because MNKD LTS did not cut and run that ultimately, the company was able to achieve FDA approval in 2014.
Yes, Al Mann put in a lot of his own money into the company but so did individual LTS like myself. Should the amount of money Al and LTS invested have guaranteed that the leadership of the company would not lead it to the edge of ruin? You would think so. However and unfortunately, Mr. Mann surrounded himself with inexperienced and wholly incompetent executives and board members who lacked any drug approval / deep regulatory experience which a biopharma like MannKind needed to hire. Water under the bridge nonetheless, the reality is that Afrezza remains completely relevant as does the potential of Technosphere. The MNKD LTS did not go wrong in their due diligence. Assume that only a cash offer can be made to MNKD shareholders (as provided by an interested party's BOD). That would mean that once a LTS accepts a cash offer, they have relinquished their interest in the future potential of Afrezza and Technosphere. FACT. As an individual LTS of this company, I expect any cash offer for my MNKD shares (which I have held for no less than 2 years) to equal no less than 1/2 the value of the buying company's stock price on the date of the offer. Does this sound so far fetched? It's not. The cash provided would allow me to purchase 1/2 the number of shares in the new company which I used to own in MannKind. So for example, if I owned 1000 shares of MannKind for more than 2 years, I would be able to purchase 500 shares of the new company. If Amgen's stock price stands at $155 today, to agree to a cash offer, they would need to provide me with $78/share. Alternately I would settle for 1/2 the number in AMGN shares and this would be a far easier transaction I think. Quid Pro Quo my friends. Anything I am entitled to from being an Amgen shareholder would be icing on my cake and not someone else's. Pure and simple. I would suggest that LTS do not sit idly by while BODs of companies determine our future respecting Afrezza nor Technosphere. I will start messaging now what my expectations are so that MannKind's new CEO and the 'day late, penny short' BOD are both fully aware that this LTS expects to hold MannKind's technologies through the year 2047. I don't care how they make it so, but they need to make it so or my lawyer will instead - make it so for them.
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Post by uvula on May 31, 2017 18:58:38 GMT -5
"As an individual LTS of this company, I expect any cash offer for my MNKD shares (which I have held for no less than 2 years) to equal no less than 1/2 the value of the buying company's stock price on the date of the offer. Does this sound so far fetched? "
Tinkerbell, this is not how the world works. The value of the buying company's stock price has nothing to do with it. This is equivalent to saying that if a guy driving a Rolls Royce totals my Honda I expect his insurance to give me a check equal to the value of the Rolls Royce. Yes it would be nice if this happens. But it will never happen.
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Post by agedhippie on May 31, 2017 19:26:18 GMT -5
That's just not the way things work, unfortunately (for LTSs). ... However and unfortunately, Mr. Mann surrounded himself with inexperienced and wholly incompetent executives and board members who lacked any drug approval / deep regulatory experience which a biopharma like MannKind needed to hire. Water under the bridge nonetheless, the reality is that Afrezza remains completely relevant as does the potential of Technosphere. The MNKD LTS did not go wrong in their due diligence. ... If Amgen's stock price stands at $155 today, to agree to a cash offer, they would need to provide me with $78/share. Alternately I would settle for 1/2 the number in AMGN shares and this would be a far easier transaction I think. Sorry, but if the BOD and execs were as excruciatingly bad as you say then something went badly wrong with your due diligence that you missed that. If AMGEN have to pay $78 per share for Mannkind I think that puts an abrupt end to the AMGEN rumors.
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Post by goyocafe on May 31, 2017 19:28:04 GMT -5
"As an individual LTS of this company, I expect any cash offer for my MNKD shares (which I have held for no less than 2 years) to equal no less than 1/2 the value of the buying company's stock price on the date of the offer. Does this sound so far fetched? " Tinkerbell, this is not how the world works. The value of the buying company's stock price has nothing to do with it. This is equivalent to saying that if a guy driving a Rolls Royce totals my Honda I expect his insurance to give me a check equal to the value of the Rolls Royce. Yes it would be nice if this happens. But it will never happen. You are soooo correct. If the guy with the Rolls Royce totals my Honda, I sue his ass off for personal injury and suffering and take his castle. 🤠
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Post by mnholdem on May 31, 2017 19:34:52 GMT -5
However, drugs increase in price each year while cars do not. Tinkerbell is correct that M&A negotiations typically take estimated future revenues into account.
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Tinkerbell
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Post by Tinkerbell on May 31, 2017 20:10:17 GMT -5
"As an individual LTS of this company, I expect any cash offer for my MNKD shares (which I have held for no less than 2 years) to equal no less than 1/2 the value of the buying company's stock price on the date of the offer. Does this sound so far fetched? " Tinkerbell, this is not how the world works. The value of the buying company's stock price has nothing to do with it. This is equivalent to saying that if a guy driving a Rolls Royce totals my Honda I expect his insurance to give me a check equal to the value of the Rolls Royce. Yes it would be nice if this happens. But it will never happen. You are soooo correct. If the guy with the Rolls Royce totals my Honda, I sue his ass off for personal injury and suffering and take his castle. 🤠 Now that's the spirit! All I'm saying is rather than simply bend to 'how the world works', I'd rather be a squeaky voice for something better than what the MannKid board thinks would be best for me. Really? What. Along the lines of the Sanofi deal? What's the worst that can happen if I speak clearly as a LTS about what my expectations would be from any buy out and especially at this point in time? I'm told to take a hike? So what Nevertheless, I will do my level best to get the message out regarding what I believe would be fair in exchange for what we've provided to MannKind so they could deliver Afrezza gift wrapped to some large BP. Yes - I think so. Every single board member has NOT not held my best interest at heart. Not a single one. They will know precisely where I stand. Want to buy MannKind once Afrezza hits 100M in sales? Ok-we'll talk later. Much later Need a little cash MannKind? A rights offering where I GET to buy shares at a 30% discount and I get to dilute my shares so I get the rewards of owning this technology come 2047. OK. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Post by peppy on May 31, 2017 20:50:22 GMT -5
Let's just get this on record shall we? Matt, do you believe that Mannkind is going to announce bankruptcy in the near term (1-3 months?) In 1-3 months it is hard to say. In 1-2 months, the answer is almost certainly no. In 3 months, that changes to a maybe. The wild card is how things go over the next two months on their ability to pad the cash balance, however they manage to do it. A company cannot declare bankruptcy and hope to exit with a confirmed Chapter 11 plan unless they have enough cash on the balance sheet to see them through the pendency of the case. Once a company files they essentially become a cash business, having to prepay certain expenses, like utilities, and having to pay other vendors cash on delivery, plus there are extraordinary legal costs that didn't exist before. Declaring BK with no cash left is sure way to wind up in a Chapter 7 and an immediate liquidation; nobody wants that. The outside law firm is no doubt giving the board the same advice and if the cash gets too close to zero the board will have to file if they want a chance to reorganize. When exactly does that happen? If the latest cash burn figure is $7 million, and a Chap 11 case takes at least 4 months, then the company need a reserve of $28 million in operating cash plus $10 million for legal expenses, or a total of $38 million as a minimum cash balance at all times. The cash won't reach that minimum number until mid-August assuming the $10 million in debt due in July is swapped for shares and the entire Mann Group credit line is used. Any material increase in sales pushes the date further into the future. If the company does a successful rights offering (which will require shareholder approval to increase authorized shares) the date gets pushed further. If the authorized shares are increased, there can be a PIPE transaction in the market and the date gets pushed further. If there is a licensing deal with up-front cash, the date gets pushed further. A lot can happen in the next two months to boost cash and those events are hard to anticipate and even harder to quantify. Absent anything contributing in a significant way to the cash reserve, August 14 is a day to watch. A lot of law firms like to file BK on the same day they file a 10-Q since all the disclosures are up-to-date as of that filing and it lessens the initial paperwork for the case. I have seen several companies file the 10-Q followed immediately by an 8-K announcing the BK filing. Still think August 14TH? To the mods. I had to sit through this whole when will bankruptcy occur discussion when he wrote it. Now we have some little news. I should be able to ask. Matt has been helping us work through the wind down for a year. I hope he is wrong. He does know the rules forward and backwards.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jun 1, 2017 3:07:11 GMT -5
... However and unfortunately, Mr. Mann surrounded himself with inexperienced and wholly incompetent executives and board members who lacked any drug approval / deep regulatory experience which a biopharma like MannKind needed to hire. Water under the bridge nonetheless, the reality is that Afrezza remains completely relevant as does the potential of Technosphere. The MNKD LTS did not go wrong in their due diligence. ... If Amgen's stock price stands at $155 today, to agree to a cash offer, they would need to provide me with $78/share. Alternately I would settle for 1/2 the number in AMGN shares and this would be a far easier transaction I think. Sorry, but if the BOD and execs were as excruciatingly bad as you say then something went badly wrong with your due diligence that you missed that. If AMGEN have to pay $78 per share for Mannkind I think that puts an abrupt end to the AMGEN rumors. If Nate Pile is correct $78 pps in a year may look like a bargain. If what Dr Bruce Bode said a few weeks back at the Medscape educational session about all T2s being put on afrezza within a year or two of diagnosis becomes 20% real, $200 pps is a bargain. Every time I see TCOYD and Edelman afrezza is always hanging around and the last I checked Edelman is the architect of the Onduo protocol. What's Piles 3 yr target, $400? If MNKD signs a few more international deals before July there will be more than Amgen interested. China may be more real than not and so does the middle east.
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Post by kc on Jun 1, 2017 3:20:52 GMT -5
Sorry, but if the BOD and execs were as excruciatingly bad as you say then something went badly wrong with your due diligence that you missed that. If AMGEN have to pay $78 per share for Mannkind I think that puts an abrupt end to the AMGEN rumors. If Nate Pile is correct $78 pps in a year may look like a bargain. If what Dr Bruce Bode said a few weeks back at the Medscape educational session about all T2s being put on afrezza within a year or two of diagnosis becomes 20% real, $200 pps is a bargain. Every time I see TCOYD and Edelman afrezza is always hanging around and the last I checked Edelman is the architect of the Onduo protocol. What's Piles 3 yr target, $400? If MNKD signs a few more international deals before July there will be more than Amgen interested. China may be more real than not and so does the middle east. Dr. Edelman Will be in Overland Park Kansas on Saturday with us TCOYD diabetes program. Mannkind Will also be there exhibiting.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 1, 2017 8:06:29 GMT -5
Sorry, but if the BOD and execs were as excruciatingly bad as you say then something went badly wrong with your due diligence that you missed that. If AMGEN have to pay $78 per share for Mannkind I think that puts an abrupt end to the AMGEN rumors. If Nate Pile is correct $78 pps in a year may look like a bargain. If what Dr Bruce Bode said a few weeks back at the Medscape educational session about all T2s being put on afrezza within a year or two of diagnosis becomes 20% real, $200 pps is a bargain. Every time I see TCOYD and Edelman afrezza is always hanging around and the last I checked Edelman is the architect of the Onduo protocol. What's Piles 3 yr target, $400? If MNKD signs a few more international deals before July there will be more than Amgen interested. China may be more real than not and so does the middle east. What if the ADA announces today that Afrezza is the only prandial insulin that can be used. You can use any string of wishes to construct a future you desire, but without assigning probabilities and impacts it's all just fantasy. I might buy a lottery ticket to become a millionaire but the probability of that happening is so small that I am not giving up my day job. This is the whole basis of risk analysis - separating likely outcomes from fantasy. AMGEN buying Mannkind for $78 in a year is a fantasy. - AMGEN is focused on other markets - There is 0% chance of T2s being routinely put immediately onto Afrezza within the next year - Onduo will not make Afrezza a key part of the protocol. At best it will treat Afrezza like all other insulins - Nate has an awful track record of predictions with Mannkind I have a better chance of winning the lottery than of Mannkind hitting $400 in three years.
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Post by peppy on Jun 1, 2017 8:10:45 GMT -5
If Nate Pile is correct $78 pps in a year may look like a bargain. If what Dr Bruce Bode said a few weeks back at the Medscape educational session about all T2s being put on afrezza within a year or two of diagnosis becomes 20% real, $200 pps is a bargain. Every time I see TCOYD and Edelman afrezza is always hanging around and the last I checked Edelman is the architect of the Onduo protocol. What's Piles 3 yr target, $400? If MNKD signs a few more international deals before July there will be more than Amgen interested. China may be more real than not and so does the middle east. What if the ADA announces today that Afrezza is the only prandial insulin that can be used. You can use any string of wishes to construct a future you desire, but without assigning probabilities and impacts it's all just fantasy. I might buy a lottery ticket to become a millionaire but the probability of that happening is so small that I am not giving up my day job. This is the whole basis of risk analysis - separating likely outcomes from fantasy. AMGEN buying Mannkind for $78 in a year is a fantasy. - AMGEN is focused on other markets - There is 0% chance of T2s being routinely put immediately onto Afrezza within the next year - Onduo will not make Afrezza a key part of the protocol. At best it will treat Afrezza like all other insulins - Nate has an awful track record of predictions with Mannkind I have a better chance of winning the lottery than of Mannkind hitting $400 in three years. Nate's 3 year target is $400? heh
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Post by promann on Jun 1, 2017 8:14:23 GMT -5
What if the ADA announces today that Afrezza is the only prandial insulin that can be used. You can use any string of wishes to construct a future you desire, but without assigning probabilities and impacts it's all just fantasy. I might buy a lottery ticket to become a millionaire but the probability of that happening is so small that I am not giving up my day job. This is the whole basis of risk analysis - separating likely outcomes from fantasy. AMGEN buying Mannkind for $78 in a year is a fantasy. - AMGEN is focused on other markets - There is 0% chance of T2s being routinely put immediately onto Afrezza within the next year - Onduo will not make Afrezza a key part of the protocol. At best it will treat Afrezza like all other insulins - Nate has an awful track record of predictions with Mannkind I have a better chance of winning the lottery than of Mannkind hitting $400 in three years. Nate's 3 year target is $400? heh
WOW AT 400 SP MY MNKD STOCK VALUE WILL BE WORTH 10 MILLION! CANT WAIT NOT SELLING ONE SHARE..
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Post by gamblerjag on Jun 1, 2017 8:16:56 GMT -5
If Nate Pile is correct $78 pps in a year may look like a bargain. If what Dr Bruce Bode said a few weeks back at the Medscape educational session about all T2s being put on afrezza within a year or two of diagnosis becomes 20% real, $200 pps is a bargain. Every time I see TCOYD and Edelman afrezza is always hanging around and the last I checked Edelman is the architect of the Onduo protocol. What's Piles 3 yr target, $400? If MNKD signs a few more international deals before July there will be more than Amgen interested. China may be more real than not and so does the middle east. What if the ADA announces today that Afrezza is the only prandial insulin that can be used. You can use any string of wishes to construct a future you desire, but without assigning probabilities and impacts it's all just fantasy. I might buy a lottery ticket to become a millionaire but the probability of that happening is so small that I am not giving up my day job. This is the whole basis of risk analysis - separating likely outcomes from fantasy. AMGEN buying Mannkind for $78 in a year is a fantasy. - AMGEN is focused on other markets - There is 0% chance of T2s being routinely put immediately onto Afrezza within the next year - Onduo will not make Afrezza a key part of the protocol. At best it will treat Afrezza like all other insulins - Nate has an awful track record of predictions with Mannkind I have a better chance of winning the lottery than of Mannkind hitting $400 in three years. I don't believe nate piles $400 dollar target is in three years in fact I haven't seen his $400 target. I've seen is $300 target which he said is possible in 10 or 15 years or longer
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 1, 2017 8:52:41 GMT -5
What if the ADA announces today that Afrezza is the only prandial insulin that can be used. You can use any string of wishes to construct a future you desire, but without assigning probabilities and impacts it's all just fantasy. I might buy a lottery ticket to become a millionaire but the probability of that happening is so small that I am not giving up my day job. This is the whole basis of risk analysis - separating likely outcomes from fantasy. AMGEN buying Mannkind for $78 in a year is a fantasy. - AMGEN is focused on other markets - There is 0% chance of T2s being routinely put immediately onto Afrezza within the next year - Onduo will not make Afrezza a key part of the protocol. At best it will treat Afrezza like all other insulins - Nate has an awful track record of predictions with Mannkind I have a better chance of winning the lottery than of Mannkind hitting $400 in three years. I don't believe nate piles $400 dollar target is in three years in fact I haven't seen his $400 target. I've seen is $300 target which he said is possible in 10 or 15 years or longer There is no 400 target. My gosh! 2B is my target $25. Nate thinks we are worth between 1-3b right now. $300 10-15 years. But I have my own reasons for my target. Those that will be still under water at that pps....Don't cry.. Buy:-) IMO
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