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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 9, 2017 7:21:22 GMT -5
On your last point and this is pure speculation, perhaps interest in a deal re-emerged that Matt had worked on previously. Perhaps whoever is involved in the deal wants to negotiate with Pfeffer; or Mike needed Matt for his background on the deal. I don't necessarily believe this, I'm just throwing out a plausible scenario. This could result in a renegotiation of the severance. Mannkind better be working on some sort of deal because otherwise they'll be gone. We simply can't know what's in the works. I believe MNKD has many options on the table and are trying to negotiate the best deal possible. I also believe there is absolutely no chance that they'll be gone. Just because we see from our view as a outsider that cash is a problem does not mean it is. I'm sure that Afrezza and MNKD will succeed and if it's only a can getting kicked I'm sure it will get kicked over and over to profitability. I have absolutely no worries or concerns. This in my opinion is a screaming buy. All of Wall Street and the entire investing world sees it as a problem. Just because Mike stated they have options doesn't mean they have no worries about cash. I mean he talked about a sale and leaseback of Danbury, you don't bring that option to the table unless there is a cash crunch. "Working on international licensing opportunities" at some point needs to be called out and based on the Biomm deal (which we still have no idea about the economics of the distribution agreement) it is apparent it does not solve the cash situation.
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Post by promann on Aug 9, 2017 7:45:27 GMT -5
I believe MNKD has many options on the table and are trying to negotiate the best deal possible. I also believe there is absolutely no chance that they'll be gone. Just because we see from our view as a outsider that cash is a problem does not mean it is. I'm sure that Afrezza and MNKD will succeed and if it's only a can getting kicked I'm sure it will get kicked over and over to profitability. I have absolutely no worries or concerns. This in my opinion is a screaming buy. All of Wall Street and the entire investing world sees it as a problem. Just because Mike stated they have options doesn't mean they have no worries about cash. I mean he talked about a sale and leaseback of Danbury, you don't bring that option to the table unless there is a cash crunch. "Working on international licensing opportunities" at some point needs to be called out and based on the Biomm deal (which we still have no idea about the economics of the distribution agreement) it is apparent it does not solve the cash situation. Read it again. I already agreed that outsiders view it as a problem. Or are you just trying to be argumentive?
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 9, 2017 7:54:11 GMT -5
Pro.. To funny! I think they call it balance. And then some mention financial advisers or some other double talk..I just "can't even" at this point:-)) Nevertheless a screaming buy!
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Post by silentknight on Aug 9, 2017 8:36:37 GMT -5
All in all, I'll give Mike C and the executive team a lot of credit for a very detailed and fairly well conducted call. It was the first time that I can remember that MNKD actually had a quarterly call that resembled that of a fully functioning, organized, and capable company like you see from other well established entities in the space. They provided details on a great many fronts but there are still several issues that, in my opinion, are plaguing the share price and the Street's perception of MNKD. 1) Cash: It's not an issue that needs to be resolved today, granted, but it is an issue that needs to be resolved soon. Mike estimated that MNKD has enough cash to get them to the end of 2017/beginning of 2018. That's not a lot of time. I believe they're working on options to extend the runway, but every day that goes by is one day less to get things in order and the uncertainty that exists for MNKD's long term survival (speaking in a number of years, not months) will continue to damage the company until it's resolved. Reputable companies don't typically float along, tapping financing sources to the maximum extent possible, only to buy a few more months of cash. MNKD needs a long term solution to give them enough time to complete their planned studies/trials and move along their R&D pipeline. 2) Sales: Mike gave some excellent details on what they're doing to increase sales and we were given guidance on sales for the first time ever. That's significant. Strides have been made on sales in recent days, but we're still a LONG way away from where we need to be to make the company profitable or to convince analysts and investors that Afrezza will truly be commercially successful. Pediatric applications are likely a number of years away, with Brazil also being at least a year away from showing any signs of sales of the drug. MNKD needs to continue seeing double digit increases in sales throughout the coming months to convince outsiders that the drug is truly what we all thought it would be. MNKD has made significant progress in the area of #2, but without #1, all the progress comes to an end. My only hope is that MNKD can buy itself a number of years, not months, with new financing and continue to show progress in sales. If that happens, all of this will be an afterthought and we can all meet up years from now, have a drink and laugh at how bad things once were. If Mike can do what we all hope he can, we can all meet on my yacht.
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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 9, 2017 9:03:47 GMT -5
All of Wall Street and the entire investing world sees it as a problem. Just because Mike stated they have options doesn't mean they have no worries about cash. I mean he talked about a sale and leaseback of Danbury, you don't bring that option to the table unless there is a cash crunch. "Working on international licensing opportunities" at some point needs to be called out and based on the Biomm deal (which we still have no idea about the economics of the distribution agreement) it is apparent it does not solve the cash situation. Read it again. I already agreed that outsiders view it as a problem. Or are you just trying to be argumentive? The point is that for some reason I have yet to understand is that the select group from this board lives by the mentality of MNKD has/will never have a problem and Wall St. has always been wrong about the company. If I were to keep score over the last 3 years it would be Wall St. 750 Mannkind ProBoard Members 0. Do I think Osborne is annoying, yes, but his cash analysis is spot on. I'm sure I'll get the old, "if you're not happy with MNKD then sell your shares and move on" but ya know my investment is down about 85% so forgive me if I'm not all super optimistic about MNKD and I will continue to have a realist point of view. When you post things like I have absolutely no worries and this is a screaming buy expect it to be challenged.
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 9, 2017 9:16:39 GMT -5
Yes WS has been right. SNY dumped us.Things were bleak. Stocks are a screaming buy before WS gets it. IMO
When we get over 500 scripts WS may re-think things and reverse their estimates.
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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 9, 2017 9:38:31 GMT -5
Yes WS has been right. SNY dumped us.Things were bleak. Stocks are a screaming buy before WS gets it. IMOWhen we get over 500 scripts WS may re-think things and reverse their estimates. On this one I would beg to differ hence why you don't see a lot of short squeezes in today's age. They control the movement for the most part and will usually make money at one point or another. If MNKD successfully turns the ship around one of the big boys will make boat loads I guarantee it. I think it's fantastic they gave gross/net revenue guidance for everyone to start modeling on so that is a start. We have got to pick the pace up to get to the $9MM mark so we will see. I definitely am not arguing the point that if MNKD were to find a non-dilutive way to raise capital by $75MM and strong script/revenue trajectory this thing will shoot up quick.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 9, 2017 9:50:09 GMT -5
Yes WS has been right. SNY dumped us.Things were bleak. Stocks are a screaming buy before WS gets it. IMO When we get over 500 scripts WS may re-think things and reverse their estimates. Yes, totally agree. Mike commented that, had SNY kept their feet on the gas pedal, Afrezza can easily achieve $30-50 million sales in the first 12-18 months of launch.
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 9, 2017 9:52:20 GMT -5
I honestly think that Wall Street will need another full quarter of ~50% sales growth to get on board. Measured in sales $, not in scripts. Most investors are just not paying attention to the stock. It's the quarterly earning report that gets broadcast far enough to reach new ears/buyers. And *if* that broadcast says 50% quarterly (organic, heh) growth for 3 Qs in a row, then there will be some real interest.
We're 1 month into q3 and on track:
Symphony average $ for Q2: $220k Symphony average $ for August: $270k
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Post by oldfishtowner on Aug 9, 2017 10:09:55 GMT -5
Pro.. To funny! I think they call it balance. And then some mention financial advisers or some other double talk..I just "can't even" at this point:-)) Nevertheless a screaming buy! I admire your enthusiasm! But for me MNKD is not quite a screaming buy yet. From my perspective it is still an attractive speculative investment. I would rate it a hold or even a speculative buy. I would change to an outright buy if weekly NRx exceed 250 in the next 2 weeks and exceed 300 by early September. If weekly NRx exceeds 400 sometime in September, the I would agree it is a screaming buy at that point, especially if MNKD gets what it wants in the label change. I do think all of this is possible, but not quite convinced it will happen. While the script data suggest that scripts have turned the corner, we really don't have sufficient data at this point to say for certain that this is actually the case. So I would like to see some confirmation that scripts are on track over the next few weeks. Potential partners and potential investors in the preferred shares are probably waiting to see what happens over the next 3-6 weeks as well.
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Post by kball on Aug 9, 2017 10:16:55 GMT -5
Read it again. I already agreed that outsiders view it as a problem. Or are you just trying to be argumentive? The point is that for some reason I have yet to understand is that the select group from this board lives by the mentality of MNKD has/will never have a problem and Wall St. has always been wrong about the company. If I were to keep score over the last 3 years it would be Wall St. 750 Mannkind ProBoard Members 0. Do I think Osborne is annoying, yes, but his cash analysis is spot on. I'm sure I'll get the old, "if you're not happy with MNKD then sell your shares and move on" but ya know my investment is down about 85% so forgive me if I'm not all super optimistic about MNKD and I will continue to have a realist point of view. When you post things like I have absolutely no worries and this is a screaming buy expect it to be challenged. I think this could be said for every one of us. Either we are. Or we were. (my own were closer to 70%. Hurt then. Hurts still. Will hurt for at least several more years, maybe longer)
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 9, 2017 12:09:16 GMT -5
On your last point and this is pure speculation, perhaps interest in a deal re-emerged that Matt had worked on previously. Perhaps whoever is involved in the deal wants to negotiate with Pfeffer; or Mike needed Matt for his background on the deal. I don't necessarily believe this, I'm just throwing out a plausible scenario. This could result in a renegotiation of the severance. Mannkind better be working on some sort of deal because otherwise they'll be gone. We simply can't know what's in the works. I believe MNKD has many options on the table and are trying to negotiate the best deal possible. I also believe there is absolutely no chance that they'll be gone. Just because we see from our view as a outsider that cash is a problem does not mean it is. I'm sure that Afrezza and MNKD will succeed and if it's only a can getting kicked I'm sure it will get kicked over and over to profitability. I have absolutely no worries or concerns. This in my opinion is a screaming buy. So management just lied to us about the cash situation on the conference call? and file misleading financials with the SEC? I don't get why this is something people would seem to hope for. I suppose it is possible, but wow.
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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 9, 2017 12:21:20 GMT -5
I believe MNKD has many options on the table and are trying to negotiate the best deal possible. I also believe there is absolutely no chance that they'll be gone. Just because we see from our view as a outsider that cash is a problem does not mean it is. I'm sure that Afrezza and MNKD will succeed and if it's only a can getting kicked I'm sure it will get kicked over and over to profitability. I have absolutely no worries or concerns. This in my opinion is a screaming buy. So management just lied to us about the cash situation on the conference call? and file misleading financials with the SEC? I don't get why this is something people would seem to hope for. I suppose it is possible, but wow. That was my point when challenging that statement as well. For all of our sakes I hope weekly TRx get to a 500 clip by October and that is great but guess what.......... there is still a cash problem!
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Post by tchalaa on Aug 9, 2017 12:32:59 GMT -5
So a lot has been said; what you will read are not speculations but facts and as a virtual community you are free to beleive:
- the last cc set the commercial benchmark for Mannkind and YES regardless of the performance of Sanofi
- what was communicated on during the cc is what matter and should be on our radar moving forward.
- only closed deals will be announced no announcement of discussion on a particular deals - "You may get up the next morning and no more share available, wiped by inst."
- our market capital sharply decrease since last year but what is interesting and the market will finally see it, is that we have more capital than before and sales are growing. Estimation are, the will more than double this year and the next want
- the Aegis Capital collaboration (yellow) is over.
- many deals are in discussion in other regions of the world, but again it will be communicated on any only if closed
"You don't fight a fight to win the past but for a better future", the FDA need to get the ball rolling we are in a new era!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 9, 2017 12:38:53 GMT -5
So a lot has been said; what you will read are not speculations but facts and as a virtual community you are free to beleive: - the last cc set the commercial benchmark for Mannkind and YES regardless of the performance of Sanofi - what was communicated on during the cc is what matter and should be on our radar moving forward. - only closed deals will be announced no announcement of discussion on a particular deals - "You may get up the next morning and no more share available, wiped by inst." - our market capital sharply decrease since last year but what is interesting and the market will finally see it, is that we have more capital than before and sales are growing. Estimation are, the will more than double this year and the next want - the Aegis Capital collaboration (yellow) is over. - many deals are in discussion in other regions of the world, but again it will be communicated on any only if closed "You don't fight a fight to win the past but for a better future", the FDA need to get the ball rolling we are in a new era! You did mean these are your speculations, don't you. You somehow got it twisted around the other way in your first statement.
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