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Post by mayday on Mar 3, 2024 9:57:17 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Mar 3, 2024 10:15:56 GMT -5
" Celebrations may be in order for MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. Investors have been pretty optimistic on MannKind too, with the stock up 27% to US$4.50 over the past week. Could this upgrade be enough to drive the stock even higher? Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from MannKind's six analysts is for revenues of US$284m in 2024, which would reflect a major 43% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to turn into profits real soon, with the analysts forecasting US$0.20 in per-share earnings. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$246m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.088 in 2024. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates." " Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$7.08, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that MannKind's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 43% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 28% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MannKind is expected to grow much faster than its industry."
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Post by jkendra on Mar 3, 2024 16:32:51 GMT -5
Someone on here was saying estimates put out by MNKD were showing 25% total gain in 2024. Was it AgedHipster ? This 43% estimate blows that out of the water. Recent analyst's estimates have been pretty conservative. They have either been right on the money or way below. This means with $284M/year we will be at $70M+ revenue per quarter in no time!
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Post by ktim on Mar 3, 2024 17:14:34 GMT -5
Someone on here was saying estimates put out by MNKD were showing 25% total gain in 2024. Was it AgedHipster ? This 43% estimate blows that out of the water. Recent analyst's estimates have been pretty conservative. They have either been right on the money or way below. This means with $284M/year we will be at $70M+ revenue per quarter in no time! I recently stated that the graph titled "Non-risk Adjusted Outlook" shows something in the 25-30% range. I'm not even sure what presentation that came from. Someone else had posted that as an individual image in a thread here within the past couple of months. That chart was not in one of the quarterly earnings presentation, so I guess an investor conference. The chart goes out to 2032 showing well over a billion $ revenue (mostly the pipeline drugs), but that means the Y axis is pretty compressed, so using a straight edge to read off any given year is pretty imprecise. I'd guess it's closer to $250M than $260M for 2024. Either case, that chart definitely doesn't show $284M that is the average of analysts. Hopefully MNKD has been conservative in that chart and manage to over deliver in line with estimates lest there be headlines about missing estimates. It's interesting that analysts are jumping ahead of MNKD's own numbers... and I assume if they are competent at all they must have that graph. Perhaps UTHR has said something that leads analysts to believe MNKD is too conservative on royalty stream. If someone has, or could generate, a table showing the different analysts and their revenue estimates that would be very interesting. Is there one big outlier on the upside driving up the average?
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Post by ryster505 on Mar 3, 2024 20:09:58 GMT -5
Someone on here was saying estimates put out by MNKD were showing 25% total gain in 2024. Was it AgedHipster ? This 43% estimate blows that out of the water. Recent analyst's estimates have been pretty conservative. They have either been right on the money or way below. This means with $284M/year we will be at $70M+ revenue per quarter in no time! I recently stated that the graph titled "Non-risk Adjusted Outlook" shows something in the 25-30% range. I'm not even sure what presentation that came from. Someone else had posted that as an individual image in a thread here within the past couple of months. That chart was not in one of the quarterly earnings presentation, so I guess an investor conference. The chart goes out to 2032 showing well over a billion $ revenue (mostly the pipeline drugs), but that means the Y axis is pretty compressed, so using a straight edge to read off any given year is pretty imprecise. I'd guess it's closer to $250M than $260M for 2024. Either case, that chart definitely doesn't show $284M that is the average of analysts. Hopefully MNKD has been conservative in that chart and manage to over deliver in line with estimates lest there be headlines about missing estimates. It's interesting that analysts are jumping ahead of MNKD's own numbers... and I assume if they are competent at all they must have that graph. Perhaps UTHR has said something that leads analysts to believe MNKD is too conservative on royalty stream. If someone has, or could generate, a table showing the different analysts and their revenue estimates that would be very interesting. Is there one big outlier on the upside driving up the average? I think the big “outlier” is Tyvaso underestimation and possibly Afrezza post trial outcomes making a large jump of double or more.
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Post by jkendra on Mar 3, 2024 20:33:09 GMT -5
What happened to the huge inventory buildup royalties ? I wonder if the sale will be recorded in Q1.
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Post by Thundersnow on Mar 4, 2024 0:09:52 GMT -5
What happened to the huge inventory buildup royalties ? I wonder if the sale will be recorded in Q1. I think the Inventory Revenue gets classified as DEFERRED Revenue. It changes when the drug gets placed in the channel.
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Post by celo on Mar 12, 2024 9:48:51 GMT -5
stocks.apple.com/ADwWWnpXcSK2nHd7mdkVySA“Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 269% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive. “ Where in the “industry” is 269% growth forecasted? For the next 3 years which would be a total of 10x rev. Of course I’m investing in the wrong biotech.
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Post by porkini on Mar 12, 2024 10:32:55 GMT -5
stocks.apple.com/ADwWWnpXcSK2nHd7mdkVySA“Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 269% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive. “ Where in the “industry” is 269% growth forecasted? For the next 3 years which would be a total of 10x rev. Of course I’m investing in the wrong biotech. Link does not work, requests me to install a "Stocks" app.
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Post by ktim on Mar 12, 2024 11:05:48 GMT -5
stocks.apple.com/ADwWWnpXcSK2nHd7mdkVySA“Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 269% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive. “ Where in the “industry” is 269% growth forecasted? For the next 3 years which would be a total of 10x rev. Of course I’m investing in the wrong biotech. I just googled and found an estimate for pharma growth to be 6% for the next 3 years. I suspect that author is... ahem... "distorting" things a bit. Actually, that's a P. T. Barnum quality distortionist.
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Post by parrerob on Mar 12, 2024 13:05:42 GMT -5
Someone on here was saying estimates put out by MNKD were showing 25% total gain in 2024. Was it AgedHipster ? This 43% estimate blows that out of the water. Recent analyst's estimates have been pretty conservative. They have either been right on the money or way below. This means with $284M/year we will be at $70M+ revenue per quarter in no time! I recently stated that the graph titled "Non-risk Adjusted Outlook" shows something in the 25-30% range. I'm not even sure what presentation that came from. Someone else had posted that as an individual image in a thread here within the past couple of months. That chart was not in one of the quarterly earnings presentation, so I guess an investor conference. The chart goes out to 2032 showing well over a billion $ revenue (mostly the pipeline drugs), but that means the Y axis is pretty compressed, so using a straight edge to read off any given year is pretty imprecise. I'd guess it's closer to $250M than $260M for 2024. Either case, that chart definitely doesn't show $284M that is the average of analysts. Hopefully MNKD has been conservative in that chart and manage to over deliver in line with estimates lest there be headlines about missing estimates. It's interesting that analysts are jumping ahead of MNKD's own numbers... and I assume if they are competent at all they must have that graph. Perhaps UTHR has said something that leads analysts to believe MNKD is too conservative on royalty stream. If someone has, or could generate, a table showing the different analysts and their revenue estimates that would be very interesting. Is there one big outlier on the upside driving up the average? Hi here you can find the graph posted by mnkd mnkd.proboards.com/post/260515It was presented at MS conf
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Post by carefulinvestor on Mar 12, 2024 15:29:10 GMT -5
Thank you! I always appreciate the genuine helpfulness of most PB posters. (Happy face)!
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Post by Chris-C on Mar 12, 2024 16:44:05 GMT -5
stocks.apple.com/ADwWWnpXcSK2nHd7mdkVySA“Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 269% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive. “ Where in the “industry” is 269% growth forecasted? For the next 3 years which would be a total of 10x rev. Of course I’m investing in the wrong biotech. I just googled and found an estimate for pharma growth to be 6% for the next 3 years. I suspect that author is... ahem... "distorting" things a bit. Actually, that's a P. T. Barnum quality distortionist. Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and call it a poorly programmed bot, which is only slightly more intelligent than a human shill who is paid to provide misleading stock forecasts.
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Post by dh4mizzou on Mar 12, 2024 19:10:58 GMT -5
Curious if anyone has heard any whispers of how the Leerink meeting went.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 12, 2024 19:11:13 GMT -5
stocks.apple.com/ADwWWnpXcSK2nHd7mdkVySA“Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 269% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive. “ Where in the “industry” is 269% growth forecasted? For the next 3 years which would be a total of 10x rev. Of course I’m investing in the wrong biotech. The weight market - GLP1s. You could be investing in the right biotech if Mike would put Saxenda on Technosphere and we had Saxenda DPI.
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