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Post by mannmade on Mar 3, 2015 10:44:45 GMT -5
blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/03/03/why-mannkind-could-lose-half-its-value/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahooWhy MannKind Could Lose Half Its Value Diabetes market dynamics have deteriorated as reflected by growing pressure on prices and slow launch uptakes – both of which have been unfavorably influenced by payors as they leverage their formularies. We now estimate gross to net discounts for diabetes drugs at 40% which we believe would apply to Afrezza and is higher than the 20% we had originally expected. We note that prescription trends for recent diabetes product launches such as Jardiance (3Q14) and Trulicity (4Q14) both fell ~75% short of our estimates in 4Q. Finally, with only a few weeks of script data, Afrezza’s launch trajectory has also fallen short of our expectations. These factors lead us to lower our Afrezza sales forecast from $2bn to $1bn in 2025. We still believe MannKind will achieve the targets needed to capture $925mn in milestones from Sanofi (SNY). Although our R&D and G&A spending estimates come down based on management guidance for 2015, our EPS estimates are reduced from 2017 onwards. As a result, Olson slashed his price target to $3. With MannKind trading off 12% at 5.87 at 10:27 a.m. today, that leaves 49% of downside to his target.
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Post by crpminc on Mar 3, 2015 12:43:22 GMT -5
you can reach Jay Olson author of down grade to sell price target $3.00 at 800-323--5678 if you want to try to convince him why he is wrong.
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Post by bradleysbest on Mar 3, 2015 13:44:51 GMT -5
That would be like trying to convince a drunk that he is DRUNK & should not drive! Good luck with that....
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Post by goyocafe on Mar 11, 2015 11:20:26 GMT -5
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Post by savzak on Mar 11, 2015 12:44:28 GMT -5
Of particular interest:
"However, thanks to the unique composition and delivery method of MannKind’s Afrezza, it is my contention that this segment of the insulin market is about to be turned on its head… and though it may take longer than the optimists are hoping for the paradigm shift to hit critical mass, I believe that once that tipping point is reached, it won’t be more than a year or two longer before doctors and patients will be looking back on “the way they used to do things before Afrezza came along” (and, yes – the implication there is that Afrezza will be the dominant player in the multi-billion dollar meal time insulin market)."
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"Rather than measuring “success” in controlling blood sugar levels via a process of keeping data over a period of several months and shooting to have average readings that are below certain target levels (as has been done for decades), diabetics today have the ability to monitor themselves on a real-time basis (or very close to it, give or take a few minutes)… and, though the studies have not been done yet, once they are done, I believe it is very likely they will show that Afrezza is a far more useful tool for managing blood sugar levels than anything else on the market today.
To be sure, until the studies are done, neither MannKind nor Sanofi can actually make the claim “on the label,” but I think it is important to keep in mind that there is nothing that prohibits patients from sharing their personal experiences with a product (something that is already happening via social media), and if doctors are noticing trends in their patient populations, they are always free to act on those observations regardless of what labels actually say… and thus, it is important to keep in mind that we do not necessarily have to have to wait for these studies to be completed before we might start to see the results “ahead of time” in the real world patient population."
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"while there is definitely a lot of science involved when it comes to diabetics keeping their blood sugars in line, at the end of the day, it boils down to an art for each individual patient. With patients becoming more and more able to track their sugars in close to real-time, they are going to start demanding an insulin that is able to keep up with them – and Afrezza is the only insulin currently on the market that has any hope of meeting that demand. Buy only as much as you can sleep with at night!"
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Post by suebeeee1 on Mar 11, 2015 13:05:04 GMT -5
How can we longs do anything but clap wildy. I truly believe not just diabetes, but many other disorders are about to go the same way. Imagine, some short time in the future, where most disorders are treated with inhaled meds....pain, migraines, immunizations, RA (which are injections right now) and many others.
This really rocks!
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Post by bradleysbest on Mar 11, 2015 13:24:16 GMT -5
And WHEN they announce a TS partnership the snow ball effect will start. Good times are ahead we just have to demonstrate a little patience!
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Post by nugjuice on Mar 11, 2015 13:26:43 GMT -5
And WHEN they announce a TS partnership the snow ball effect will start. Good times are ahead we just have to demonstrate a little patience! ...and intestinal fortitude
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Post by yossarian on Mar 13, 2015 7:35:12 GMT -5
From: www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/16556?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+thelifesciencesreport/rejU+%28The+Life+Sciences+Report+-+Streetwise+Exclusive+Articles+Full+TextGriffin Securities analyst has nice things to say about Mannkind * * * * * TLSR: You put out a recent note on MannKind, and Afrezza is now on the market. How is that going so far?
KM: The commercialization of Afrezza is doing quite well. The product has the marketing support of Sanofi, with about 1,500 sales representatives detailed to physicians around the United States right now. Because this rollout has just begun, demand based upon prescriptions filled is still too low to get any sense of how big it will be. It's also way too early to measure the effectiveness of the sales force in a very competitive market.
But the fact is that demand for the trial packages of Afrezza have gone way above expectations, so I think that's a pretty good sign. We're also seeing MannKind expanding its manufacturing capacity for the drug by more than threefold. That expansion will be competed in the June quarter, so the company is preparing for significant upturn in demand. Sanofi has been talking with insurers to obtain favorable reimbursement conditions for the drug.
TLSR: The company is now talking about future development plans with its Technosphere particles. Would you speak to that briefly?
KM: Sure. Mannkind recently announced that it was adding to its research and development pipeline of active pharmaceutical ingredients that could be administered through its Technosphere particle technology. These Technosphere particles are designed specifically to penetrate the alveoli of the lungs, thereby delivering medication to the bloodstream very quickly. This is the pharmacokinetics behind Afrezza. It is the only therapy that actually mimics the way the pancreas normally releases insulin.
"If you see that the market is going gung-ho over a drug, you'd better think seriously about whether or not the company might be overbought."
Mannkind is going to use the Technosphere technology in three areas. One is to administer a pain medication. My guess is that it will be for something like cancer-related breakthrough pain. Another program is going to be for cancer supportive care. While the company hasn't discussed any particular drugs, one idea is that it could be an antiemetic—a drug for treating the nausea associated with chemotherapy. A patient may not be able to take medication by mouth and hold it down, or perhaps the medication will not be absorbed properly in the gastrointestinal tract. In these cases, inhalation of the drug would be ideal. The third area will be to address pulmonary disease, but the company hasn't yet acknowledged what type of lung disease it will address.
TLSR: Afrezza was approved at the end of June 2014, and it was launched on Feb. 3. Although MannKind shares have risen about 18% off its low of the last six months, the stock price is down 6% from a year ago. Why has this stock been so slow?
KM: What we've had since July is a change-out of investors in the company. One group of investors clearly likes biotech and pharmaceutical companies during the development stage, and they love to watch the speculative fervor that can take a company's stock to new highs. That is exactly what we saw last spring and into the middle of summer, when everyone was anticipating the FDA advisory committee panel meeting in early April, and then the approval in the middle of the summer, and then, finally, the partnering agreement with Sanofi. After those events took place, there was nothing to speculate over. We've seen six months of relative quiet, very little news flow. As a result, investors in development-stage companies sold off their positions over time.
But the stock was up significantly since its low on Oct. 10. What we have been seeing since then is involvement by larger institutions that are more interested in the commercial side of the business, that want to invest in companies where earnings are somewhat predictable, and that want to track uptake via prescription data and sales. We're at that turning point now, toward real commercial status, but the effects of that changeover aren't yet apparent.
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Post by yossarian on Mar 22, 2015 12:57:46 GMT -5
Just read on INVESTOR VILLAGE MNKD Board, that Mannkind may have a 2 BILLION Dollar tax loss carryforward. Anybody have any more info. on this. This could make MNKD a much more attractive takeover candidate.
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Post by xoxoxoxo on Mar 22, 2015 13:24:10 GMT -5
Just read on INVESTOR VILLAGE MNKD Board, that Mannkind may have a 2 BILLION Dollar tax loss carryforward. Anybody have any more info. on this. This could make MNKD a much more attractive takeover candidate. This has been well known, we aren't paying taxes anytime soon. Depending on how any takeover is structured/what is bought the tax loss may or may not go with it. All the buyout talk is absolute nonsense though. It makes zero sense until Afrezza is proven to be successful as no one would pay what Al Mann knows it's worth before then.
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Post by yossarian on Mar 23, 2015 8:56:00 GMT -5
The carry forwards don't begin to expire until 2018. If AFREZZA has not shown itself to be a blockbuster by then, you're right nobody is gonna want to buy MNKD unless TECHNOSPHERE (sic) has shown some promise with other drugs.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2015 9:14:29 GMT -5
Just read on INVESTOR VILLAGE MNKD Board, that Mannkind may have a 2 BILLION Dollar tax loss carryforward. Anybody have any more info. on this. This could make MNKD a much more attractive takeover candidate. Can that tax loss be sold to another company?
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Post by petech on Mar 23, 2015 15:34:51 GMT -5
No. If the stock of the company is acquired, that's how you get that tax attribute. That said, the NOLs would be subject to the Section 382 limit (very high level, take equity value and multiply by applicable AFR...assume 3%). This assumes there are no previous ownership changes, and disregards any net unrealized built in gain / losses.
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Post by harrythekingisindahouse on Mar 24, 2015 10:37:50 GMT -5
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