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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2017 14:49:26 GMT -5
I think Mike did lay his cards on the table when he put slide 18 of the following presentation up files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-22AIJ9/5744442559x0x957803/FF146CED-EE59-48D1-9F66-F1B2AB1EE058/MannKind_Cantor_2017.pdfHe quickly delivered on a few items. It has been quiet for a little while, but I think that the additional shares that were authorized last week were needed to move forward in some areas. It has at least been hinted that future partnerships will involve some purchase of shares. Prescriptions have been increasing lately. He has delivered $60 million in cash. I think he will need to continue to check items off of that list in order to prevent the share price from dropping, and I am optimistic that he will. Easier view of Slide 18.
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Post by radgray68 on Dec 19, 2017 15:09:06 GMT -5
I think Mike covered what he is working on in the coming quarters very well. I also think the short players are counting on the February CC to apply their end game and I'll tell you why. They have been hammering this idea that we might not make the low end of guidance for the 2nd half of 2017. We should be good on that front, but it won't matter. In Q4 of 2016, we got a lot of money from Sanofi that was reported as income. Now, when the QOQ numbers show we are so much worse than last year, the shorts will pick up the megaphones and start shouting from the rooftops that Mannkind is done. "...Loses More Than Expected......blah, blah, blah." RIP MNKD has already been used so they will have to come up with another way to phrase it.
How much they can push it down by then is anybody's guess. Keep your powder dry so to speak and watch for a bottom as has been suggested here already. Me, I sold 1000 shares last week to buy an English Bulldog Puppy. Even if we got bought out tomorrow, it has been the best money I've ever spent. Don't forget to look around and smell the roses while you wait on Mannkind. Patience cannot be stressed enough. Shorts have it in spades.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 19, 2017 15:15:53 GMT -5
IMO there's a solid run-up coming that will dwarf the recent temporary run-up. My expectation is based on a forthcoming jump in scripts and both domestic and international partnership announcements that have been hinted. This is the run-up to which I was referring that should not be missed. It could very well be a long, slow climb over several years where there's time to get in and out but I'm skeptical this will be the case. Like others, it's just one opinion.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 15:28:52 GMT -5
I think Mike covered what he is working on in the coming quarters very well. I also think the short players are counting on the February CC to apply their end game and I'll tell you why. They have been hammering this idea that we might not make the low end of guidance for the 2nd half of 2017. We should be good on that front, but it won't matter. In Q4 of 2016, we got a lot of money from Sanofi that was reported as income. Now, when the QOQ numbers show we are so much worse than last year, the shorts will pick up the megaphones and start shouting from the rooftops that Mannkind is done. "...Loses More Than Expected......blah, blah, blah." RIP MNKD has already been used so they will have to come up with another way to phrase it. How much they can push it down by then is anybody's guess. Keep your powder dry so to speak and watch for a bottom as has been suggested here already. Me, I sold 1000 shares last week to buy an English Bulldog Puppy. Even if we got bought out tomorrow, it has been the best money I've ever spent. Don't forget to look around and smell the roses while you wait on Mannkind. Patience cannot be stressed enough. Shorts have it in spades. Never heard of that one... is the ticker EBP? You think that will be a buy and hold?  |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Dec 19, 2017 15:47:39 GMT -5
I know that Mankind has been moving in a new direction and has been going at this alone. I know that time is needed and that some things are sensitive and are bounded legally. However, with all of that being said, do you think that it's time for Mankind to be a little bit more transparent with their stockholders in light of the future projections that we have been hearing and given for some time now, and from where we are trading at today? Is it possible for them to update shareholders with a little more information or do we have to wait until conference calls to hear projections.
In my opinion, the way to keep the shorts off the field, is to make noise and to promote. It is mind boggling when we have to hang on to words and phrases to try and decipher the direction that we are going in. Lay out the path, make the noise, advertise and announce every positive step that we make. Take the shorts off the field, and get Afrezza into the ears of patience and doctors around the country!
This is just my opinion, and I am sure that there is far more knowledge on this board. Right now there is little to offer and a lot to lose for Mike. If there would be something material positive he would have to state that and he would state it as it would help their financing. He would also have to state if things are negative but most CEOs of BioTech companies, I invested I and lost money, avoided this till the end hoping that they will not be sued but long gone. I learnt the hard way that you should not trust a CEO that is silent. |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 19, 2017 15:49:31 GMT -5
In the MF interview Mike did lay the cards on the table by saying if you’re horizon is 3-6 months then this may not be the stock for you. I took that to mean don’t expect any big material changes in that timeframe. I sold my shares to protect my profits (got in around 2.10/share) shortly after and am waiting for a new bottom to stabilize before buying back in. IMO cheerleading and promoting without improving fundamentals will do nothing to ward off the shorts. I’m still bullish but there is time to sit on the sidelines before a run happens.I agree Mike's comment was important. That said, the last run-up came without any advance notice whatsoever. The biggest announcements of 2017 came without advance notice. The next run-up and announcements will likely also appear suddenly. The turn-around has begun. It would be extremely disappointing to miss the big one thinking there was time left. GL It's not completely true that the run-up came without warning. It was clear that something was going to happen around the the end of October which is why I said I was putting on a straddle on for November back in September. I admit I didn't think that position was going to be as spectacularly successful as it was! There is nothing like that coming up that I can see right now and there is certainly time to wait on the sidelines in my opinion. If for some reason the price starts to run there is time to get in, the last run up took 9 trading days from base to peak. |
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Post by radgray68 on Dec 19, 2017 16:38:08 GMT -5
I think Mike covered what he is working on in the coming quarters very well. I also think the short players are counting on the February CC to apply their end game and I'll tell you why. They have been hammering this idea that we might not make the low end of guidance for the 2nd half of 2017. We should be good on that front, but it won't matter. In Q4 of 2016, we got a lot of money from Sanofi that was reported as income. Now, when the QOQ numbers show we are so much worse than last year, the shorts will pick up the megaphones and start shouting from the rooftops that Mannkind is done. "...Loses More Than Expected......blah, blah, blah." RIP MNKD has already been used so they will have to come up with another way to phrase it. How much they can push it down by then is anybody's guess. Keep your powder dry so to speak and watch for a bottom as has been suggested here already. Me, I sold 1000 shares last week to buy an English Bulldog Puppy. Even if we got bought out tomorrow, it has been the best money I've ever spent. Don't forget to look around and smell the roses while you wait on Mannkind. Patience cannot be stressed enough. Shorts have it in spades. Never heard of that one... is the ticker EBP? You think that will be a buy and hold? Definately our little Moonpie is a buy and hold, smooch, laugh and cuddle. I'll try to figure out how to get a photo of my little guy up here. This little fountain of youth is a keeper, poop and all. I'll just leave my other favorite pet, little "Mannkind"(still holding my core) in the corner until she starts playing nice again. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 19, 2017 17:03:49 GMT -5
Do not care about what shorts are thinking or will do after ER or at any point for that matter. They are essentially done because BK is not happening. Instead, all the things on the slide 18 are happening.
I am waiting for $2.25 or so to add more to my position.
I will keep adding whenever possible as I believe the risk / reward ratio has improved dramatically after the vote.
Go MNKD!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 19, 2017 18:26:00 GMT -5
Do not care about what shorts are thinking or will do after ER or at any point for that matter. They are essentially done because BK is not happening. Instead, all the things on the slide 18 are happening. I am waiting for $2.25 or so to add more to my position. I will keep adding whenever possible as I believe the risk / reward ratio has improved dramatically after the vote. Go MNKD! We share similar thinking. (I think I would like similar shares!) |
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Post by therealisaching on Dec 20, 2017 10:26:47 GMT -5
I think Mike did lay his cards on the table when he put slide 18 of the following presentation up files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-22AIJ9/5744442559x0x957803/FF146CED-EE59-48D1-9F66-F1B2AB1EE058/MannKind_Cantor_2017.pdfHe quickly delivered on a few items. It has been quiet for a little while, but I think that the additional shares that were authorized last week were needed to move forward in some areas. It has at least been hinted that future partnerships will involve some purchase of shares. Prescriptions have been increasing lately. He has delivered $60 million in cash. I think he will need to continue to check items off of that list in order to prevent the share price from dropping, and I am optimistic that he will. Easier view of Slide 18.
I'm surprised Mike has stalled on his list. He had been hitting it like clockwork. It looked to be a check list he was hitting in chronological order ending with the IND filing for Trepostinil which sounded like it would happend in q1 2018. My expectation was to hear more about the bullet points in this quarter which hasnt happened.
Int'l expansion announcements. We had the BIOMM update but nothing more.
RLS - Mike C said back in Sept "There’s a Receptor Life Sciences collaboration, which we haven’t talked about much in the 18 months. It was announced in January 2016. We’ll have some updates on that collaboration, that’s focused on the cannabinoid market. And so we’ll be talking about that in near future" No update.
One Drop - Mike referred to the subscrition model & there was much to address on the legal front. I give them a pass on this delay. It is a unique concept.
Expansion of payor coverage - Mike C said they were ready to sign with a large PBM in Jan 18. No announcement. Is it happening or not? A pr would be nice.
STAT Trial - Mike C "Our STAT trial, which is really looking at Afrezza plus Dexcom will be – we’ll get those results in late fall and they’ll be presented next year"
Ok so the expectation is that we wouldnt hear about this until 2018 along with the IND. The way the list was framed the other items were to be q4 catalysts. No catalysts = the drubbing the share price is taking. It sure is disappointing. I'm still a believer. It's day and night going into 2018 from where the company was going in to 2017.
Sure would like to see some progress on these fronts.
GLTA
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Post by factspls88 on Dec 20, 2017 12:17:59 GMT -5
Re Large PBM to be signed Jan 2018: I had assumed Mike meant that it would be effective Jan 2018 even though he didn't use those exact words. Don't the formularies get updated before the start of the year to allow individuals to make changes in their plans? My PBM sent me a letter noting changes to the medications I use last month. I hope I am wrong and that something will be announced in January.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 20, 2017 12:23:57 GMT -5
The question that hasn't a clear answer is "What is Castagna's interpretation of near term?"
He may have hinted at the answer in his Nov-2017 interview with Motley Fool's Keith Speitz:
Castagna: "We've brought in a new management team and an entire commercial organization to make this a very successful company. We're fixing really nine years of financing and commercial decisions that were made in terms of clinical development. You can't just unwind all those activities in six months, even in a year. So we've been fixing. We've done a lot in a year and a half. I think it's going to be another quarter or two, and people are going to see that we've really made a lot of progress. And they're going to see that in the financial results and see that in the volume growth of the product.
"So if you have a three-month view of the world, this might not be the right stock. It may be up or down, who knows? I think if you've got a six- to 12- to 18-month view of the world, then you can see the trends continue to head in the right direction, and you'll get clarity on the forecast of revenue, as well as the breakeven of the company and the pipeline."
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Speights: How long do you think it will take for you to know if the TV campaign is really working effectively?
Castagna: I think in terms of turning into prescriptions, it will take about two months to start to see a meaningful lift. We'll measure every week, but in general, you think about a patient has a visit six to eight weeks out, maybe 12 weeks out, so you've got to see the TV [commercial] probably three to five times, and then they're reminded for the next doctor's appointment. We can tell you in the first week of the TV ad, Google search AdWords are up, website hits are up fourfold, copay downloads are up. So we can tell you all the early metrics that would indicate it's working are up, but the real metric to me is going to be prescriptions and people taking the drug. And that will just take some time, but the early metrics are positive so far."
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Castagna: "This isn't about will the drug succeed or not, will the company be in bankruptcy or not. I don't see those things happening at this point. The drug will succeed. The company is not heading for bankruptcy. So it's really a matter of are we going to be $50 million, $100 million, or $500 million. And I think those trends over the next six months will really start to show people what can happen."
Source: www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/19/an-interview-with-mannkind-ceo-michael-castagna.aspx
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 15:15:25 GMT -5
Easier view of Slide 18.
I'm surprised Mike has stalled on his list. He had been hitting it like clockwork. It looked to be a check list he was hitting in chronological order ending with the IND filing for Trepostinil which sounded like it would happend in q1 2018. My expectation was to hear more about the bullet points in this quarter which hasnt happened.
Int'l expansion announcements. We had the BIOMM update but nothing more.
RLS - Mike C said back in Sept "There’s a Receptor Life Sciences collaboration, which we haven’t talked about much in the 18 months. It was announced in January 2016. We’ll have some updates on that collaboration, that’s focused on the cannabinoid market. And so we’ll be talking about that in near future" No update.
One Drop - Mike referred to the subscrition model & there was much to address on the legal front. I give them a pass on this delay. It is a unique concept.
Expansion of payor coverage - Mike C said they were ready to sign with a large PBM in Jan 18. No announcement. Is it happening or not? A pr would be nice.
STAT Trial - Mike C "Our STAT trial, which is really looking at Afrezza plus Dexcom will be – we’ll get those results in late fall and they’ll be presented next year"
Ok so the expectation is that we wouldnt hear about this until 2018 along with the IND. The way the list was framed the other items were to be q4 catalysts. No catalysts = the drubbing the share price is taking. It sure is disappointing. I'm still a believer. It's day and night going into 2018 from where the company was going in to 2017.
Sure would like to see some progress on these fronts.
GLTA
With One Drop, we do know that there has been some marketing activity for Afrezza targeted at One Drop's customer base. I have a feeling that the subscription model may be something that just doesn't make sense in the context of rules around Medicare and Medicaid cost reimbursements... i.e. MNKD couldn't make it cheap enough to be viable for many as out of pocket without slashing the amount of money they could then get from government health programs, and likely commercial insurance as well. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 20, 2017 15:54:04 GMT -5
The thing is, a One Drop A+ subscription would bundle One Drop Premium support services with (X) amount of Afrezza/month, to go along with the test strips. I don't think anything else makes sense for One Drop. And it won't be cheap, but it would be cheaper than retail Afrezza. This way insurance companies will keep paying the same price, while One Drop customers paying out of their own pocket get a discount. Bonus: It would come with a wealth of usage *and* result data that One Drop could be contracted to share with MNKD.
This is complete speculation! I think that the One Drop trial will need to finish before we hear anything else on that front though.
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Post by madog365 on Dec 20, 2017 16:05:48 GMT -5
The thing is, a One Drop A+ subscription would bundle One Drop Premium support services with (X) amount of Afrezza/month, to go along with the test strips. I don't think anything else makes sense for One Drop. And it won't be cheap, but it would be cheaper than retail Afrezza. This way insurance companies will keep paying the same price, while One Drop customers paying out of their own pocket get a discount. Bonus: It would come with a wealth of usage *and* result data that One Drop could be contracted to share with MNKD. This is complete speculation! I think that the One Drop trial will need to finish before we hear anything else on that front though. Just a thought, but could another reason why the change to the new revenue recognition model be tied to the one drop partnership and selling direct to patients? Would make sense to book all of your revenue to direct customers like wholesalers if you are selling Afrezza direct. |
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