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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 21, 2017 10:31:49 GMT -5
Consider: 1. 100% increase in share authorization was baked into the 320-3 ish price leading up to and slightly after the shareholder approval. 2. If there are any deals in the works, as far as any potential partner would be concerned- - the authorization would have to be secured in advance
- there was no assurance the authorization would take, and may have required the time for a second attempt
- A partner would likely want to see the authorization in place before engaging 'in earnest' (hiring all those expensive baba-lawyer types)
- we are now into the holiday season. Deals take time to close, and this puts additional drag on any timeline.
- I'd expect any partner would want to see the results of any near term studies even if the data is preliminary, to gain more confidence on the value for what the market has yet to have embraced.
3. The CEO made a purchase that does indicate he expects the price higher in the future. 4. Nothing has materially changed in terms of where we are, other than perception of any impending deal that IMO, would not close so immediately after the authorization. 5. Still down to Insurance, scripts, and funding. There are milestones we are supposed to achieve regarding the first, which should help the second, and indirectly lead to the third. Regarding said deal, due to these realities I would not expect to see anything close until mid-Jan / early Feb at the earliest. As for the stock price, the 100% increased authorization is only loosely (IMO) correlated to the current 33 ish % price drop, which (again IMO) clearly has manipulation written all over it. They probe every morning for just how much it can take then manage it within a few cents at that point throughout the rest of the day. For the first few days the drops were on lower volumes... it is taking increasing volumes / resources to effect the manipulation, with the likely goal of forcing a renegotiation of the Deerfield payment terms. I'm sure most here would expect to see that the next short interest report will be up. In my nutshell ('cause God surely knows what a nut I am) key will be Study results timing... hopefully there is some mid January data that impacts closure of a deal.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 21, 2017 11:17:51 GMT -5
My first priority for 2018 would be to work like crazy to get more insurance companies on board. Mike surely knows what it takes, and we've heard somewhat encouraging words on that front already. Hope he and his guys have the ability to get that done. Doesn't take much of a positive change there to make a dramatic effect on the script count.
As far as more deals, surely, bring them on!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 14:16:01 GMT -5
esstan2001... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing.
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 21, 2017 14:28:42 GMT -5
I am very surprised that this company and it's IP has not attracted a real activist investor.
There is a way to simply put the floor under the stock and shorts will disappear (provided that the shares bought are held and not lent out).
A lot of money can be made along the way also, in addition to helping the company move forward.
That's what I want to see in 2018!
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Post by cannon5974 on Dec 21, 2017 14:33:03 GMT -5
Am I the only one that is really impressed that MNKD just raised $60M at a $6/share price. The stock has been trading around $1 most of the year. It goes over $6 for like 2 days and Management is able to sell $1M shares at $6/share. That is very impressive and gives me a lot of hope that someone thinks this company is worth a lot more than $6/share.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 14:49:30 GMT -5
Am I the only one that is really impressed that MNKD just raised $60M at a $6/share price. The stock has been trading around $1 most of the year. It goes over $6 for like 2 days and Management is able to sell $1M shares at $6/share. That is very impressive and gives me a lot of hope that someone thinks this company is worth a lot more than $6/share. Many here, including myself did express being impressed with Mike's ability to pull that off. However, it now appears that it was a bit of smoke and mirrors employed (including two "analysts" who were competing for the PIPE business, and now one has turned negative) to orchestrate that temporary run up, which was good for the PIPE but now the inevitable correction has left many feeling a bit sick from the roller coaster ride. While being impressed with Mike pulling it off at $6, many people believe that a majority of the shares likely went to purchasers that would have shorted the shares immediately when the deal was concluded and locked in the discount given them as profit... if true that isn't investors taking a risk because they believe in long term of company. Whether that is true or not I don't think any of us know, but the perception is likely why the transaction didn't support share price staying that high.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 21, 2017 14:54:12 GMT -5
After reading all these considerations, I have decided to reduce my 1-Year target price for MNKD from $27 to $26.50!
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 21, 2017 15:09:42 GMT -5
esstan2001 ... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing. my point of reference in time and price was not the pipe, it was the authorization whereby we remained around $3 going into and exiting just past, so your first 2, possibly 3 dashes get dashed, as I think these were mostly baked in at 3. :-) But not to discount the importance of what you are saying- I'm sure any imminent manipulation and fake news will be targeted to effect mayhem around the optics of the Deerfried payment as you mention.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 15:22:37 GMT -5
esstan2001... I don't think lack of formulary improvement was baked in. In fact I think there may be some that are still expecting it in the short term.
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Post by timri on Dec 21, 2017 15:28:19 GMT -5
esstan2001... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing. You’ve been awfully negative lately. Are you a disgruntled long? Are you short? This company is in much better shape then it was a year ago. I think the possibility of trepostinil alone is huge for this company. The share count was needed. You can spin it as a negative, but not having shares available would be like being financially paralyzed. The raise at 6 was impressive in my book. We all blasted mnkd for not raising when were at $10 post sanofi partnership. Now your blasting mike for raising when he saw an opportunity. Partnership wise idk I’m not in a rush for one to be had. I don’t want another sanofi deal. We saw how that played out. Let the company show value in Afrezza,trep,epi,pain management.
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Post by alethea on Dec 21, 2017 15:59:38 GMT -5
esstan2001 ... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing. You’ve been awfully negative lately. Are you a disgruntled long? Are you short? This company is in much better shape then it was a year ago. I think the possibility of trepostinil alone is huge for this company. The share count was needed. You can spin it as a negative, but not having shares available would be like being financially paralyzed. The raise at 6 was impressive in my book. We all blasted mnkd for not raising when were at $10 post sanofi partnership. Now your blasting mike for raising when he saw an opportunity. Partnership wise idk I’m not in a rush for one to be had. I don’t want another sanofi deal. We saw how that played out. Let the company show value in Afrezza,trep,epi,pain management. I put him on Ignore and am much the happier for having done so. Really sick and tired of his negative spin on virtually everything. FUDmeister? Try it. You'll like it.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 16:02:55 GMT -5
timri ... I repeatedly confirm that I'm long, have been for many many years. You can even find posts where I've stated when I've made purchases including as recently as this past summer... and I've volunteered to prove it. As you see from a post by me just above, I also have said I was impressed by getting the PIPE done at $6... and I in NO WAY have done what you accuse me of, "blasting Mike" for the PIPE (though I think the pumping that enabled such a great price has a bit of hangover effect, still thrilled it was done). My complaint against Mike was over the size of the share authorization, which I do believe will be an overhang on share price and thus ironically make it harder to use shares to raise money. It wasn't doing an authorization, it was the size of it. To use your metaphor, if the patient is paralyzed, there might be different treatment options and there can be legitimate dispute over which is the correct course of action... do you take out one disc or two discs to relieve the pressure on the spinal cord, or remove half the spine. Hopefully we can get the TS pipeline unstuck. We know that it has been lack of financial resources that stalled it. I try to be a realist when considering my investments and leave emotional negativity or positivity out of analysis as much as possible. Taking off my investor hat, I'm certainly hoping MNKD succeeds because I think Afrezza will prevent a lot of needless suffering by those with diabetes. But with my investor hat on, I try to figure out what might be the drivers of share price over both short and long term... and the above list was some of my observations on near term influences on share price. Other posts from me are more about long term, where you'll see I'm a firm believer in the potential for Afrezza. Some here don't wish to view MNKD as a regular investment where discussion of things like earnings guidance is normal. They are wanting to consider MNKD as a crusade that one has to either pledge full devotion to or be an enemy. Those types are fine, especially if they respect the rules of the forum and don't mount personal attacks.
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Post by nylefty on Dec 21, 2017 17:19:11 GMT -5
You’ve been awfully negative lately. Are you a disgruntled long? Are you short? This company is in much better shape then it was a year ago. I think the possibility of trepostinil alone is huge for this company. The share count was needed. You can spin it as a negative, but not having shares available would be like being financially paralyzed. The raise at 6 was impressive in my book. We all blasted mnkd for not raising when were at $10 post sanofi partnership. Now your blasting mike for raising when he saw an opportunity. Partnership wise idk I’m not in a rush for one to be had. I don’t want another sanofi deal. We saw how that played out. Let the company show value in Afrezza,trep,epi,pain management. I put him on Ignore and am much the happier for having done so. Really sick and tired of his negative spin on virtually everything. FUDmeister? Try it. You'll like it. You're just being "emotional," as opposed to being "objective." (The above is sarcasm). I agree with you, 100%.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 17:57:41 GMT -5
I put him on Ignore and am much the happier for having done so. Really sick and tired of his negative spin on virtually everything. FUDmeister? Try it. You'll like it. You're just being "emotional," as opposed to being "objective." (The above is sarcasm). I agree with you, 100%. A good sign of an emotional response is when one is only disparaging the messenger without having anything of substance to contribute about the content of the message. Also, in general isn't considered good forum etiquette.
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 21, 2017 18:27:20 GMT -5
Am I the only one that is really impressed that MNKD just raised $60M at a $6/share price. The stock has been trading around $1 most of the year. It goes over $6 for like 2 days and Management is able to sell $1M shares at $6/share. That is very impressive and gives me a lot of hope that someone thinks this company is worth a lot more than $6/share. Many here, including myself did express being impressed with Mike's ability to pull that off. However, it now appears that it was a bit of smoke and mirrors employed (including two "analysts" who were competing for the PIPE business, and now one has turned negative) to orchestrate that temporary run up, which was good for the PIPE but now the inevitable correction has left many feeling a bit sick from the roller coaster ride. While being impressed with Mike pulling it off at $6, many people believe that a majority of the shares likely went to purchasers that would have shorted the shares immediately when the deal was concluded and locked in the discount given them as profit... if true that isn't investors taking a risk because they believe in long term of company. Whether that is true or not I don't think any of us know, but the perception is likely why the transaction didn't support share price staying that high. At the risk of sounding stupid - and when it comes to shorting stock I admit I pretty much am: How does one buy shares and immediately short them or even short them at all? I understand a share owner can lend shares to someone to sell who sells them and then later buys them back at a lower price and gives the borrowed shares back to the lender. I also could imagine a purchaser of say 10 million shares af $6, for example, having first shorted the stock at a higher price and using the purchase to pay back the borrowed shares. What I don’t understand though is how someone can purchase shares and short them themselves for a profit. The latter it seems to me would be just like purchasing shares and then selling them. If they bought shares at $6 why would they sell at lower prices?
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