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Post by straightly on Dec 29, 2017 10:30:09 GMT -5
Congratulations Porkini, you won the very first Guess the Script Count....what a way to enhd the YEAR! Congrats! Celebrating with a small purchase of course.
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 29, 2017 10:44:44 GMT -5
I find it pretty amazing that the average of all the votes was spot on. Team effort. edit: well at least the first average, then a few of us had to go and ruin it Ha. That is amazing. A little scary as a matter of fact. This is news worthy. Good thing it came from the collective thinking of all longs that guessed and who also forsee MNKD’s big success. Let’s stick together and be known as the seers of MNKD.
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Post by lojothehus on Dec 29, 2017 11:21:28 GMT -5
I find it pretty amazing that the average of all the votes was spot on. Team effort. edit: well at least the first average, then a few of us had to go and ruin it Ha. That is amazing. A little scary as a matter of fact. This is news worthy. Good thing it came from the collective thinking of all longs that guessed and who also forsee MNKD’s big success. Let’s stick together and be known as the seers of MNKD. We are the SEERS!
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Post by thoth on Dec 29, 2017 11:49:32 GMT -5
Ha. That is amazing. A little scary as a matter of fact. This is news worthy. Good thing it came from the collective thinking of all longs that guessed and who also forsee MNKD’s big success. Let’s stick together and be known as the seers of MNKD. We are the SEERS! Sorry to be a nerd, but this isn't a surprise at all. It's a common forecasting technique to average a number of independent estimates when predicting the future. That tends to be more accurate than any one source. The key word here is independent - it doesn't help if people bias one another, which doesn't seem to have been the case here. :-)
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 29, 2017 12:18:18 GMT -5
Sorry to be a nerd, but this isn't a surprise at all. It's a common forecasting technique to average a number of independent estimates when predicting the future. That tends to be more accurate than any one source. The key word here is independent - it doesn't help if people bias one another, which doesn't seem to have been the case here. :-) OK then. Perhaps we should start another: When will we hit $10 per share?
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 29, 2017 12:21:54 GMT -5
Cmon now. With a range of about 100 possible numbers, only 15 guesses and for the average to hit spot on the answer is remarkable. The SEERS could take this to Vegas...well, as soon as the party is announced
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Post by compound26 on Dec 29, 2017 12:28:35 GMT -5
Sorry to be a nerd, but this isn't a surprise at all. It's a common forecasting technique to average a number of independent estimates when predicting the future. That tends to be more accurate than any one source. The key word here is independent - it doesn't help if people bias one another, which doesn't seem to have been the case here. :-) OK then. Perhaps we should start another: When will we hit $10 per share? Just throwing the numbers out: $10 August 10, 2018. $20 November 10, 2018.
$40 November 10, 2019.
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Post by zuegirdor on Dec 29, 2017 12:47:45 GMT -5
Based on a quick regression, I'll go with 479. R^2 is only 0.75, but it should be in the ball park. :-) guess its gone non-linear, for a while anyway...?
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Post by xanet on Dec 29, 2017 13:32:03 GMT -5
Based on a quick regression, I'll go with 479. R^2 is only 0.75, but it should be in the ball park. :-) guess its gone non-linear, for a while anyway...? No, the current value moves the regression line slightly and improves the fit a couple of points, but the trend is still clearly linear and the model is quite robust. Changing the outlier from 11/24 (360) to the average of the values immediately before and after (480) bumps up the R^2 to 0.84, but even then it only predicted 492. At any rate, we're well within normal range for a linear model, but I would be happy to see that change.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 29, 2017 13:38:50 GMT -5
OK then. Perhaps we should start another: When will we hit $10 per share? Just throwing the numbers out: $10 August 10, 2018. $20 November 10, 2018.
$40 November 10, 2019. I’m completely bias when compound says anything! Lol..... I’ll go with the same except replace the two November 10’s with January 20. And excuse me while I go buy some 2020 calls! :-))
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Post by golfeveryday on Dec 29, 2017 13:51:12 GMT -5
Just throwing the numbers out: $10 August 10, 2018. $20 November 10, 2018.
$40 November 10, 2019. I’m completely bias when compound says anything! Lol..... I’ll go with the same except replace the two November 10’s with January 20. And excuse me while I go buy some 2020 calls! :-)) I have a hard time believing MNKD will not have partnered in a big way or sold before end of 2018, which makes a $10 number too low. When the short position unwinds, $10 is a blip on the way higher. Just my opinion.
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Post by lojothehus on Dec 29, 2017 13:59:03 GMT -5
I’m completely bias when compound says anything! Lol..... I’ll go with the same except replace the two November 10’s with January 20. And excuse me while I go buy some 2020 calls! :-)) I have a hard time believing MNKD will not have partnered in a big way or sold before end of 2018, which makes a $10 number too low. When the short position unwinds, $10 is a blip on the way higher. Just my opinion. I agree, Mankind will not continue to go at it alone not even mid-way through 2018. Very soon there will be a partnership announcement and the shorts will scatter like roaches when the lights come on. During all of this, script numbers will continue to improve, better advertising, coverage through Dr. Oz or maybe 60 Minutes, and perhaps a famous spokesperson. Insurance coverage will fall into place and worrying about the SP will be a thing of the past. These things will occur far before 2019.
Signed: The SEER
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Post by xanet on Dec 29, 2017 13:59:11 GMT -5
I’m completely bias when compound says anything! Lol..... I’ll go with the same except replace the two November 10’s with January 20. And excuse me while I go buy some 2020 calls! :-)) I have a hard time believing MNKD will not have partnered in a big way or sold before end of 2018, which makes a $10 number too low. When the short position unwinds, $10 is a blip on the way higher. Just my opinion. I think similar things every year, buy some options, and lose money. Here's hoping for change! :-)
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Post by kite on Dec 29, 2017 13:59:33 GMT -5
I’m completely bias when compound says anything! Lol..... I’ll go with the same except replace the two November 10’s with January 20. And excuse me while I go buy some 2020 calls! :-)) I have a hard time believing MNKD will not have partnered in a big way or sold before end of 2018, which makes a $10 number too low. When the short position unwinds, $10 is a blip on the way higher. Just my opinion. I will take any double or triple digit number in the positive direction
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 29, 2017 14:22:47 GMT -5
Average was "dark spot" on ... because it was rigged! Notice that higher voters ... even after reducing vote number ... was still eliminated from the vote.
And how they raise little pigs to make "porkini" ... I will never know.
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